Robust Forecasting And Backtesting Of Value At Risk Var And Expected Shortfall Es Risk Measures
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Robust Forecasting And Backtesting Of Value At Risk Var And Expected Shortfall Es Risk Measures
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Author : Christos Argyropoulos
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Robust Forecasting And Backtesting Of Value At Risk Var And Expected Shortfall Es Risk Measures written by Christos Argyropoulos and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Backtesting Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall
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Author : Simona Roccioletti
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-12-04
Backtesting Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall written by Simona Roccioletti and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-12-04 with Business & Economics categories.
In this book Simona Roccioletti reviews several valuable studies about risk measures and their properties; in particular she studies the new (and heavily discussed) property of "Elicitability" of a risk measure. More important, she investigates the issue related to the backtesting of Expected Shortfall. The main contribution of the work is the application of "Test 1" and "Test 2" developed by Acerbi and Szekely (2014) on different models and for five global market indexes.
Sample Size Skewness And Leverage Effects In Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall Estimation
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Author : Laura García Jorcano
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Sample Size Skewness And Leverage Effects In Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall Estimation written by Laura García Jorcano and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
The estimation of risk measures is an area of highest importance in the financial industry. Risk measures play a major role in the risk-management and in the computation of regulatory capital. The Basel III document [13] has suggested to shift from Value-at-Risk (VaR) into Expected Shortfall (ES) as a risk measure and to consider stressed scenarios at a new con dence level of 97:5%. This change is motivated by the appealing theoretical properties of ES as a measure of risk and the poor properties of VaR. In particular, VaR fails to control for tail risk". In this transition, the major challenge faced by nancial institutions is the unavailability of simple tools for evaluation of ES forecasts (i.e. backtesting ES) The objective of this thesis is to compare the performance of a variety of models for VaR and ES estimation for a collection of assets of di erent nature: stock indexes, individual stocks, bonds, exchange rates, and commodities. Throughout the thesis, by a VaR or an ES model" is meant a given speci cation for conditional volatility, combined with an assumption on the probability distribution of return innovations...
Backtesting Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall In The Presence Of Estimation Error
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Author : Sander Barendse
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Backtesting Value At Risk And Expected Shortfall In The Presence Of Estimation Error written by Sander Barendse and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
We investigate the effect of estimation error on backtests of (multi-period) expected shortfall (ES) forecasts. These backtests are based on first order conditions of a recently introduced family of jointly consistent loss functions for Value-at-Risk (VaR) and ES. We provide explicit expressions for the additional terms in the asymptotic covariance matrix that result from estimation error, and propose robust tests that account for it. Monte Carlo experiments show that the tests that ignore these terms suffer from size distortions, which are more pronounced for higher ratios of outof-sample to in-sample observations. Robust versions of the backtests perform well, although this also depends on the choice of conditioning variables. In an application to VaR and ES forecasts for daily FTSE 100 index returns as generated by AR-GARCH, AR-GJR-GARCH, and AR-HEAVY models, we find that estimation error substantially impacts the outcome of the backtests.
What Is The Best Risk Measure In Practice A Comparison Of Standard Measures
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Author : Susanne Emmer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
What Is The Best Risk Measure In Practice A Comparison Of Standard Measures written by Susanne Emmer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Expected Shortfall (ES) has been widely accepted as a risk measure that is conceptually superior to Value-at-Risk (VaR). At the same time, however, it has been criticised for issues relating to backtesting. In particular, ES has been found not to be elicitable which means that backtesting for ES is less straightforward than, e.g., backtesting for VaR. Expectiles have been suggested as potentially better alternatives to both ES and VaR. In this paper, we revisit commonly accepted desirable properties of risk measures like coherence, comonotonic additivity, robustness and elicitability. We check VaR, ES and Expectiles with regard to whether or not they enjoy these properties, with particular emphasis on Expectiles. We also consider their impact on capital allocation, an important issue in risk management. We find that, despite the caveats that apply to the estimation and backtesting of ES, it can be considered a good risk measure. As a consequence, there is no sufficient evidence to justify an all-inclusive replacement of ES by Expectiles in applications. For backtesting ES, we propose an empirical approach that consists in replacing ES by a set of four quantiles, which should allow to make use of backtesting methods for VaR.
Financial Risk Forecasting
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Author : Jon Danielsson
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-04-20
Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-20 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Backtesting Var Models
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Author : Timotheos Angelidis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Backtesting Var Models written by Timotheos Angelidis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Academics and practitioners have extensively studied Value-at-Risk (VaR) to propose a unique risk management technique that generates accurate VaR estimations for long and short trading positions and for all types of financial assets. However, they have not succeeded yet as the testing frameworks of the proposals developed, have not been widely accepted. A two-stage backtesting procedure is proposed to select a model that not only forecasts VaR but also predicts the losses beyond VaR. Numerous conditional volatility models that capture the main characteristics of asset returns (asymmetric and leptokurtic unconditional distribution of returns, power transformation and fractional integration of the conditional variance) under four distributional assumptions (normal, GED, Student-t, and skewed Student-t) have been estimated to find the best model for three financial markets, long and short trading positions, and two confidence levels. By following this procedure, the risk manager can significantly reduce the number of competing models that accurately predict both the VaR and the Expected Shortfall (ES) measures.
Risk Measures Value At Risk And Beyond
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Author : Bernhard Höfler
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2008
Risk Measures Value At Risk And Beyond written by Bernhard Höfler and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.
Master's Thesis from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: 1 (A), University of Graz (Institut für Finanzwirtschaft), language: English, abstract: This thesis provides an exhaustive and well-founded overview of risk measures, in particular of Value at Risk (VaR) and risk measures beyond VaR. Corporations are exposed to different kinds of risks and therefore risk management has become a central task for a successful company. VaR is nowadays widely adapted internationally to measure market risk and is the most frequently used risk measure amongst practitioners due to the fact that the concept offers several advantages. However, VaR also has its drawbacks and hence there have been and still are endeavours to improve VaR and to find better risk measures. In seeking alternative risk measures to try to overcome VaR's disadvantages, while still keeping its advantages, risk measures beyond VaR were introduced. The most important alternative risk measures such as Tail Conditional Expectation, Worst Conditional Expectation, Expected Shortfall, Conditional VaR, and Expected Tail Loss are presented in detail in the thesis. It has been found that the listed risk measures are very similar concepts of overcoming the deficiencies of VaR and that there is no clear distinction between them in the literature - 'confusion of tongues' would be an appropriate expression. Two concepts have become widespread in the literature in recent years: Conditional VaR and Expected Shortfall, however there are situations where it can be seen that these are simply different terms for the same measure. Additionally other concepts are touched upon (Conditional Drawdown at Risk, Expected Regret, Spectral Risk Measures, Distortion Risk Measures, and other risk measures) and modifications of VaR (Conditional Autoregressive VaR, Modified VaR, Stable modelling of VaR) are introduced. Recapitulatory the basic findings of the thesis are that t
Multinomial Var Backtests
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Author : Marie Kratz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Multinomial Var Backtests written by Marie Kratz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) capital charges for the trading book are based on the coherent expected shortfall (ES) risk measure, which show greater sensitivity to tail risk. In this paper it is argued that backtesting of expected shortfall-or the trading book model from which it is calculated-can be based on a simultaneous multinomial test of value-at-risk (VaR) exceptions at different levels, an idea supported by an approximation of ES in terms of multiple quantiles of a distribution proposed in Emmer et al. (2015). By comparing Pearson, Nass and likelihood-ratio tests (LRTs) for different numbers of VaR levels N it is shown in a series of simulation experiments that multinomial tests with N ≥ 4 are much more powerful at detecting misspecifications of trading book loss models than standard bi-nomial exception tests corresponding to the case N = 1. Each test has its merits: Pearson offers simplicity; Nass is robust in its size properties to the choice of N ; the LRT is very powerful though slightly over-sized in small samples and more computationally burdensome. A traffic-light system for trading book models based on the multinomial test is proposed and the recommended procedure is applied to a real-data example spanning the 2008 financial crisis.
Backtesting Expected Shortfall
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Author : Zaichao Du
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Backtesting Expected Shortfall written by Zaichao Du and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.