Scenario Analysis
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Scenario Analysis In Risk Management
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Author : Bertrand K. Hassani
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-10-26
Scenario Analysis In Risk Management written by Bertrand K. Hassani and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-26 with Business & Economics categories.
This book focuses on identifying and explaining the key determinants of scenario analysis in the context of operational risk, stress testing and systemic risk, as well as management and planning. Each chapter presents alternative solutions to perform reliable scenario analysis. The author also provides technical notes and describes applications and key characteristics for each of the solutions. In addition, the book includes a section to help practitioners interpret the results and adjust them to real-life management activities. Methodologies, including those derived from consensus strategies, extreme value theory, Bayesian networks, Neural networks, Fault Trees, frequentist statistics and data mining are introduced in such a way as to make them understandable to readers without a quantitative background. Particular emphasis is given to the added value of the implementation of these methodologies.
Scenario Thinking
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Author : George Cairns
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-10-13
Scenario Thinking written by George Cairns and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development. What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often. Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings. Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions. This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.
Environmental Futures
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Author : J. Alcamo
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2008-10-10
Environmental Futures written by J. Alcamo and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-10-10 with Science categories.
As scientists and policymakers try to come to grips with problems such as climate change and risks to biodiversity, they turn more and more frequently to the method of scenario analysis to better understand the future of these problems. Over the last few years scenario analysis has become one of the key tools for bridging environmental science and policy. This is the first book to sum up the current practice of environmental scenario analysis and to propose directions for improving its quality and effectiveness. Chapters are written by an international group of distinguished scenario experts and provide an excellent starting basis for first-time scenario practitioners, as well as a collection of new ideas on improving scenario practice for experienced scenario analysts. * Comprehensive coverage and overview on environmental scenario analysis from a team of international experts * First book to address key contemporary issues involved with environmental scenario analysis * Gives guidelines for best practices Benefits: * Excellent starting base for first-time scenario practitioners * Helps the reader to interpret scenarios and to place them into the correct context
Methods Of Future And Scenario Analysis
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Author : Hannah Kosow
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Methods Of Future And Scenario Analysis written by Hannah Kosow and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Economic development categories.
Scenario Analysis The Ultimate Step By Step Guide
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Author : Gerardus Blokdyk
language : en
Publisher: 5starcooks
Release Date : 2018-05-08
Scenario Analysis The Ultimate Step By Step Guide written by Gerardus Blokdyk and has been published by 5starcooks this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with categories.
What role does communication play in the success or failure of a Scenario analysis project? How can we incorporate support to ensure safe and effective use of Scenario analysis into the services that we provide? What are your results for key measures or indicators of the accomplishment of your Scenario analysis strategy and action plans, including building and strengthening core competencies? Who will be responsible for deciding whether Scenario analysis goes ahead or not after the initial investigations? Have all basic functions of Scenario analysis been defined? This extraordinary Scenario analysis self-assessment will make you the trusted Scenario analysis domain master by revealing just what you need to know to be fluent and ready for any Scenario analysis challenge. How do I reduce the effort in the Scenario analysis work to be done to get problems solved? How can I ensure that plans of action include every Scenario analysis task and that every Scenario analysis outcome is in place? How will I save time investigating strategic and tactical options and ensuring Scenario analysis costs are low? How can I deliver tailored Scenario analysis advice instantly with structured going-forward plans? There's no better guide through these mind-expanding questions than acclaimed best-selling author Gerard Blokdyk. Blokdyk ensures all Scenario analysis essentials are covered, from every angle: the Scenario analysis self-assessment shows succinctly and clearly that what needs to be clarified to organize the required activities and processes so that Scenario analysis outcomes are achieved. Contains extensive criteria grounded in past and current successful projects and activities by experienced Scenario analysis practitioners. Their mastery, combined with the easy elegance of the self-assessment, provides its superior value to you in knowing how to ensure the outcome of any efforts in Scenario analysis are maximized with professional results. Your purchase includes access details to the Scenario analysis self-assessment dashboard download which gives you your dynamically prioritized projects-ready tool and shows you exactly what to do next. Your exclusive instant access details can be found in your book.
Scenario Analysis With The Dd Pd Mapping Approach Stock Market Shocks And U S Corporate Default Risk
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Author : Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-05-20
Scenario Analysis With The Dd Pd Mapping Approach Stock Market Shocks And U S Corporate Default Risk written by Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-20 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative and narrative scenarios informed by expert judgment. At end-2020, risks from stock market corrections in the U.S. are concentrated in the energy, financial and technology sectors, and additional bank capital needs could be large. The paper concludes discussing uses of the mapping beyond PD valuation suitable for capital structure analysis, credit portfolio management, and long-term scenario planning analysis.
Scenario Planning Revised And Updated
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Author : Mats Lindgren
language : en
Publisher: Palgrave MacMillan
Release Date : 2009-03-31
Scenario Planning Revised And Updated written by Mats Lindgren and has been published by Palgrave MacMillan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-03-31 with Business & Economics categories.
In this text, the authors draw upon examples and cases to develop a new model for scenario planning that is closely integrated with strategy.
Models Of Scenario Building And Planning
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Author : A. Martelli
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-10-01
Models Of Scenario Building And Planning written by A. Martelli and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Models of Scenario Building and Planning offers a unique and innovative exploration of the scenario approach. The book focuses on the analysis of the competitors' behavior; the analysis of risk and uncertainty; and the link between scenarios and strategies.
Scenario Thinking
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Author : G. Wright
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2011-05-03
Scenario Thinking written by G. Wright and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-05-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Presents new methods in scenario thinking, based on a mix of high-level research and top-level consultancy experience. The authors describe the logical bases of a range of scenario methods and provide detailed 'road maps' on how to implement them - together with practical examples of their application.
A Review Of Scenario Planning Literature
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Author : Katja Kirsch
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2007-10
A Review Of Scenario Planning Literature written by Katja Kirsch and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Scientific Essay from the year 2004 in the subject Business economics - General, grade: 73%, University of the West of England, Bristol (Bristol Business School), course: Developing Business Knowledge, 31 entries in the bibliography, language: English, abstract: Scenarios are increasingly popular within both companies and non-profit organisations. A wide variety of scenario characteristics and approaches has developed. In this paper a definition of the term scenario is given before exploring the different underlying assumptions and characteristics of, and approaches to scenario planning. It then goes on and identifies lacks in scenario theory to conclude with a future outlook of further research.