Stock Return Dividend Growth And Consumption Growth Predictability Across Markets And Time
DOWNLOAD
Download Stock Return Dividend Growth And Consumption Growth Predictability Across Markets And Time PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Stock Return Dividend Growth And Consumption Growth Predictability Across Markets And Time book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
Stock Return Dividend Growth And Consumption Growth Predictability Across Markets And Time
DOWNLOAD
Author : David G. McMillan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Stock Return Dividend Growth And Consumption Growth Predictability Across Markets And Time written by David G. McMillan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
This paper links variation in the predictive regressions for stock returns, dividend growth and consumption growth to economic and market factors. The nature of these links can reveal whether movement in asset prices occurs primarily through the discount rate (risk-free rate or risk premium) or cash flow (economic conditions) channel, while they also help explain the mixed results for predictability reported in the literature. Variation is examined through cross-sectional regressions across fifteen markets and over time using rolling regressions. The cross-sectional and time-varying parameters are regressed against output growth, interest rates and inflation as well as market variables using fixed effects panel as well as both OLS and logit approaches. Panel and time-series predictive regressions based on two approaches that seek to identify periods of high expected returns (high risk premium) are also considered. The key implication for asset pricing is that although movement occurs through both channels, stock return predictability is more dominated by the discount rate channel and consumption growth predictability more so by the cash flow channel. Intuitively, such a difference may arise as investors and households rebalance their asset holdings and consumption at different speeds. There is also some evidence of money illusion through the inflation variable.
Time Varying Predictability For Stock Returns Dividend Growth And Consumption Growth
DOWNLOAD
Author : David G. McMillan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Time Varying Predictability For Stock Returns Dividend Growth And Consumption Growth written by David G. McMillan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Using a state-space model, this paper examines time-variation in the predictive regressions for stock returns, dividend growth and consumption growth. Moreover, we linked time-variation explicitly to movements in economic factors that can account for risk and cash flow. Results support the view that stock return predictability is enhanced when risk is high (negative growth, higher volatility and positive growth/return covariance). In contrast, dividend growth and consumption growth predictability is enhanced during economic expansions. These results are supported by sub-sample analysis and a VAR approach. Furthermore, these latter exercises may uncover differences in the stock return predictability relationship when viewed over different time horizons. Overall, the paper contributes to the literature by highlighting the different nature of returns predictability, which arises largely through the risk channel and dividend and consumption growth predictability, which arise through the cash flow channel.
Global Stock Markets
DOWNLOAD
Author : Wolfgang Drobetz
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-06-29
Global Stock Markets written by Wolfgang Drobetz and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Wolfgang Drobetz provides empirical evidence on the time variation of expected stock returns over the stages of the business cycle.
The Predictability Of Returns With Regime Shifts In Consumption And Dividend Growth
DOWNLOAD
Author : Anisha Ghosh
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
The Predictability Of Returns With Regime Shifts In Consumption And Dividend Growth written by Anisha Ghosh and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Economics categories.
The predictability of the market return and dividend growth is addressed in an equilibrium model with two regimes. A state variable that drives the conditional means of the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates follows different time-series processes in the two regimes. In linear predictive regressions over 1930-2009, the market return is predictable by the price-dividend ratio with R2 11.7% if the probability of being in the first regime exceeds 50%; and dividend growth is predictable by the price-dividend ratio with R2 28.3% if the probability of being in the second regime exceeds 50%. The model-implied state variables perform significantly better at predicting the equity, size, and value premia, the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates, and the variance of the market return than linear regressions with the market price-dividend ratio and risk free rate as predictive variables.
Growth Or Glamour
DOWNLOAD
Author : John Y. Campbell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Growth Or Glamour written by John Y. Campbell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Stocks categories.
The cash flows of growth stocks are particularly sensitive to temporary movements in aggregate stock prices (driven by movements in the equity risk premium), while the cash flows of value stocks are particularly sensitive to permanent movements in aggregate stock prices (driven by market-wide shocks to cash flows.) Thus the high betas of growth stocks with the market's discount-rate shocks, and of value stocks with the market's cash-flow shocks, are determined by the cash-flow fundamentals of growth and value companies. Growth stocks are not merely "glamour stocks" whose systematic risks are purely driven by investor sentiment. More generally, accounting measures of firm-level risk have predictive power for firms' betas with market-wide cash flows, and this predictive power arises from the behavior of firms' cash flows. The systematic risks of stocks with similar accounting characteristics are primarily driven by the systematic risks of their fundamentals.
Complex Systems In Finance And Econometrics
DOWNLOAD
Author : Robert A. Meyers
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2010-11-03
Complex Systems In Finance And Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-11-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Financial Markets And The Real Economy
DOWNLOAD
Author : John H. Cochrane
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Release Date : 2005
Financial Markets And The Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and has been published by Now Publishers Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Asset Pricing Theory
DOWNLOAD
Author : Costis Skiadas
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2009-02-09
Asset Pricing Theory written by Costis Skiadas and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-02-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Asset Pricing Theory is an advanced textbook for doctoral students and researchers that offers a modern introduction to the theoretical and methodological foundations of competitive asset pricing. Costis Skiadas develops in depth the fundamentals of arbitrage pricing, mean-variance analysis, equilibrium pricing, and optimal consumption/portfolio choice in discrete settings, but with emphasis on geometric and martingale methods that facilitate an effortless transition to the more advanced continuous-time theory. Among the book's many innovations are its use of recursive utility as the benchmark representation of dynamic preferences, and an associated theory of equilibrium pricing and optimal portfolio choice that goes beyond the existing literature. Asset Pricing Theory is complete with extensive exercises at the end of every chapter and comprehensive mathematical appendixes, making this book a self-contained resource for graduate students and academic researchers, as well as mathematically sophisticated practitioners seeking a deeper understanding of concepts and methods on which practical models are built. Covers in depth the modern theoretical foundations of competitive asset pricing and consumption/portfolio choice Uses recursive utility as the benchmark preference representation in dynamic settings Sets the foundations for advanced modeling using geometric arguments and martingale methodology Features self-contained mathematical appendixes Includes extensive end-of-chapter exercises
Neoclassical Finance
DOWNLOAD
Author : Stephen A. Ross
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2009-04-11
Neoclassical Finance written by Stephen A. Ross and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-04-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Neoclassical Finance provides a concise and powerful account of the underlying principles of modern finance, drawing on a generation of theoretical and empirical advances in the field. Stephen Ross developed the no arbitrage principle, tying asset pricing to the simple proposition that there are no free lunches in financial markets, and jointly with John Cox he developed the related concept of risk-neutral pricing. In this book Ross makes a strong case that these concepts are the fundamental pillars of modern finance and, in particular, of market efficiency. In an efficient market prices reflect the information possessed by the market and, as a consequence, trading schemes using commonly available information to beat the market are doomed to fail. By stark contrast, the currently popular stance offered by behavioral finance, fueled by a number of apparent anomalies in the financial markets, regards market prices as subject to the psychological whims of investors. But without any appeal to psychology, Ross shows that neoclassical theory provides a simple and rich explanation that resolves many of the anomalies on which behavioral finance has been fixated. Based on the inaugural Princeton Lectures in Finance, sponsored by the Bendheim Center for Finance of Princeton University, this elegant book represents a major contribution to the ongoing debate on market efficiency, and serves as a useful primer on the fundamentals of finance for both scholars and practitioners.
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 1995
DOWNLOAD
Author : Ben S. Bernanke
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1996
Nber Macroeconomics Annual 1995 written by Ben S. Bernanke and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Business & Economics categories.
Contents : Wage Inequality and Regional Unemployment Persistence: U.S. vs. Europe, Guiseppe BErtola and Andreas Ichino. Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale, Craig Burnside, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo. Banks and Derivatives, Gary Gorton and Richard Rosen. Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations: Theory and Evidence, Sergio Rebelo and Carlos Vegh. Inflation Indicators and Inflation Policy, Stephen Cecchetti. Recent Central Bank Reforms and the Role of Price Stability as the Sole Objective of Monetary Policy, Carl Walsh. Is Central Bank Independence (and Low Inflation) the Result of Effective Financial Opposition to Inflation?, Adam Posen. The Unending Quest for Monetary Salvation, Stanley Fischer.
