Stock Return Predictability Macro Economic Regressed Sum Of The Parts Method
DOWNLOAD
Download Stock Return Predictability Macro Economic Regressed Sum Of The Parts Method PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Stock Return Predictability Macro Economic Regressed Sum Of The Parts Method book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
Stock Return Predictability Macro Economic Regressed Sum Of The Parts Method
DOWNLOAD
Author : Prince Ratchatasumrit
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Stock Return Predictability Macro Economic Regressed Sum Of The Parts Method written by Prince Ratchatasumrit and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
This research compares and improves stock market return forecasting via the Sum-of-theParts (SOP) method introduced by Ferreira and Santa-Clara (2011) to 3 representative countries from developed, emerging, and frontier market. Our process includes forecasting separately two main decomposed components of the SOP method with macro-economic variables. The two components from SOP method being regressed are growth in price-to-earnings and growth in earnings, while macro-economic variables being used are growth in foreign portfolio investment, log growth in consumer price index, and log growth in industrial production index. The forecasted components are then being sum with dividend-price ratio to forecast one step ahead stock market return. The findings show that macro-economic regressed variables outperform both the historical sample mean approach and original SOP method, with results from out-of-sample R-squared of 7.29% for USA and 5.96% for Vietnam. The results of SOP method, without macro-economic regressed components, do not consistently carry itself up to 2017 data due to correlation issues of forecasted components. The forecasted growth in price-to-earnings multiple in relation to foreign portfolio investment suggested to us that investors in neither of the representative countries suspect foreign investment holdings to have any impact on growth in price-to-earnings multiples. While, investors in United States, unlike Thailand and Vietnam, may have optimistic expectation that growth in inflation, proxied by CPI, indicates growth in price variable in price-to-earnings multiples, encouraging them to purchase equities to prevent loss from devaluation. The forecasted growth in earnings in relation to GDP, proxied by IPI, on the other hand, suggest among investors from United States to bring about the growth in earnings of corporate entities, unlike those from Thailand and Vietnam.
Empirical Asset Pricing
DOWNLOAD
Author : Wayne Ferson
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2019-03-12
Empirical Asset Pricing written by Wayne Ferson and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-12 with Business & Economics categories.
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Financial Markets And The Real Economy
DOWNLOAD
Author : John H. Cochrane
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Release Date : 2005
Financial Markets And The Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and has been published by Now Publishers Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
DOWNLOAD
Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-08-23
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-23 with Business & Economics categories.
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Derivatives And Hedge Funds
DOWNLOAD
Author : Stephen Satchell
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-05-18
Derivatives And Hedge Funds written by Stephen Satchell and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-05-18 with Science categories.
Over the last 20 years hedge funds and derivatives have fluctuated in reputational terms; they have been blamed for the global financial crisis and been praised for the provision of liquidity in troubled times. Both topics are rather under-researched due to a combination of data and secrecy issues. This book is a collection of papers celebrating 20 years of the Journal of Derivatives and Hedge Funds (JDHF). The 18 papers included in this volume represent a small sample of influential papers included during the life of the Journal, representing industry-orientated research in these areas. With a Preface from co-editor of the journal Stephen Satchell, the first part of the collection focuses on hedge funds and the second on markets, prices and products.
The Clash Of The Cultures
DOWNLOAD
Author : John C. Bogle
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-07-05
The Clash Of The Cultures written by John C. Bogle and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Recommended Reading by Warren Buffet in his March 2013 Letter to Shareholders How speculation has come to dominate investment—a hard-hitting look from the creator of the first index fund. Over the course of his sixty-year career in the mutual fund industry, Vanguard Group founder John C. Bogle has witnessed a massive shift in the culture of the financial sector. The prudent, value-adding culture of long-term investment has been crowded out by an aggressive, value-destroying culture of short-term speculation. Mr. Bogle has not been merely an eye-witness to these changes, but one of the financial sector’s most active participants. In The Clash of the Cultures, he urges a return to the common sense principles of long-term investing. Provocative and refreshingly candid, this book discusses Mr. Bogle's views on the changing culture in the mutual fund industry, how speculation has invaded our national retirement system, the failure of our institutional money managers to effectively participate in corporate governance, and the need for a federal standard of fiduciary duty. Mr. Bogle recounts the history of the index mutual fund, how he created it, and how exchange-traded index funds have altered its original concept of long-term investing. He also presents a first-hand history of Wellington Fund, a real-world case study on the success of investment and the failure of speculation. The book concludes with ten simple rules that will help investors meet their financial goals. Here, he presents a common sense strategy that "may not be the best strategy ever devised. But the number of strategies that are worse is infinite." The Clash of the Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation completes the trilogy of best-selling books, beginning with Bogle on Investing: The First 50 Years (2001) and Don't Count on It! (2011)
Strategic Asset Allocation
DOWNLOAD
Author : John Y. Campbell
language : en
Publisher: OUP Oxford
Release Date : 2002-01-03
Strategic Asset Allocation written by John Y. Campbell and has been published by OUP Oxford this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002-01-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting
DOWNLOAD
Author : Graham Elliott
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2013-10-24
Handbook Of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-24 with Business & Economics categories.
The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Handbook Of Financial Time Series
DOWNLOAD
Author : Torben Gustav Andersen
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2009-04-21
Handbook Of Financial Time Series written by Torben Gustav Andersen and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-04-21 with Business & Economics categories.
The Handbook of Financial Time Series gives an up-to-date overview of the field and covers all relevant topics both from a statistical and an econometrical point of view. There are many fine contributions, and a preamble by Nobel Prize winner Robert F. Engle.
Completing The Market Generating Shadow Cds Spreads By Machine Learning
DOWNLOAD
Author : Nan Hu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-12-27
Completing The Market Generating Shadow Cds Spreads By Machine Learning written by Nan Hu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-12-27 with Business & Economics categories.
We compared the predictive performance of a series of machine learning and traditional methods for monthly CDS spreads, using firms’ accounting-based, market-based and macroeconomics variables for a time period of 2006 to 2016. We find that ensemble machine learning methods (Bagging, Gradient Boosting and Random Forest) strongly outperform other estimators, and Bagging particularly stands out in terms of accuracy. Traditional credit risk models using OLS techniques have the lowest out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results suggest that the non-linear machine learning methods, especially the ensemble methods, add considerable value to existent credit risk prediction accuracy and enable CDS shadow pricing for companies missing those securities.
