Structural Change And Moderating Growth In The People S Republic Of China
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Structural Change And Moderating Growth In The People S Republic Of China
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Author : Asian Development Bank
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2016-12-01
Structural Change And Moderating Growth In The People S Republic Of China written by Asian Development Bank and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) is currently undergoing a number of structural and cyclical changes, which have wide-ranging implications for economic activity in the PRC, the rest of developing Asia, and the world. This report assesses the effects of these changes on the rest of the region and the world, looking closely at various channels of transmission including commodity prices, trade, and production. The continued moderation of growth in the PRC could knock off a third of a percentage point a year in growth for the rest of developing Asia over the next 2 years. Changes in PRC economic activity significantly affect commodity prices, but the estimated impact varies by commodity. This report discusses how developing Asia's policy-makers can respond to the challenges and opportunities presented by these changes.
China S Productivity Convergence And Growth Potential A Stocktaking And Sectoral Approach
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Author : Min Zhu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-11-27
China S Productivity Convergence And Growth Potential A Stocktaking And Sectoral Approach written by Min Zhu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-27 with Business & Economics categories.
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
China S Macroeconomic Outlook
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Author : CMR of Xiamen University
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2014-07-08
China S Macroeconomic Outlook written by CMR of Xiamen University and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-07-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Owing to the decline in domestic investment and trade with the rest of the world, China’s real GDP in the first half of 2012 was lower than expected. Based on forecasts from China’s Quarterly Macroeconomic Model (CQMM), the slowdown of the growth rate in 2013 will be moderate as a result of modestly proactive macro control policy. GDP would grow at 8.01 percent in 2012, and then rebound to 8.29 in 2013; CPI would fall to a 2.9 percent in 2012, and then would pick up to 3.27 percent in 2013. In the scenario in which the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area worsened in the second half of 2012, real GDP is forecast at 7.71 percent for 2012 and 7.5 percent for 2013. Even if the external economic environment becomes worse, China’s growth is expected to stay at above 7.5 percent, which might be a steady growth rate for the near future. If China plans to achieve a higher growth rate by launching the “2 trillion massive investment package”, the growth rate of GDP could be increased to 8.25 and 8.86 percent in 2012 and 2013 with a risk of inflation and worsening economic structure. The policy implication from CQMM: on one hand the Chinese government should be able to maintain the growth rate of around 8 percent by means of timely fine-tuning of monetary policies; on the other hand, the emphasis of the micro control should be placed on structural adjustments through fiscal policies. In the long run, deepening economic, social and institutional reform will be crucial to remove the significant structural imbalance and institutional barriers to market competition, to accelerate the transformation of economic development patterns, and finally to maintain a sustainable growth rate.
China S Economic Development
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Author : Chu-yuan Cheng
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1902
China S Economic Development written by Chu-yuan Cheng and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1902 with categories.
Openness And Urbanization
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Author : Chu-Ping Lo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Openness And Urbanization written by Chu-Ping Lo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Urbanization usually occurs with structural transformation driven by a “push” from agricultural productivity growth and a “pull” from industrial productivity growth, and usually the former exceeds the latter. This paper presents a simple model to illustrate how the open policy in the People's Republic of China (PRC) since 1979 reversed the pattern such that the “pull” effect dominated the “push” effect during the PRC's structural transformation and urbanization. This model helps explain why the PRC, whose industrial productivity growth exceeds its agricultural productivity growth, has experienced a standard pattern of structural transformation. The paper also demonstrates how a developing country's business services intensity increases with its urbanization.
Resurging Asian Giants
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Author : Klaus Gerhaeusser
language : en
Publisher: Asian Development Bank
Release Date : 2010-07-01
Resurging Asian Giants written by Klaus Gerhaeusser and has been published by Asian Development Bank this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The economies of the People's Republic of China and India have seen dramatic growth in recent years. As their respective successes continue to reshape the world's economic landscape, noted Chinese and Indian scholars have studied the two countries' development paths, in particular their rich and diverse experiences in such areas as education, information technology, local entrepreneurship, capital markets, macroeconomic management, foreign direct investment, and state-owned enterprise reforms. Drawing on these studies, ADB has produced a timely collection of lessons learned that serves as a valuable refresher on the challenges and opportunities ahead for developing economies, especially those in Asia and the Pacific.
Structural Change Fundamentals And Growth A Framework And Case Studies
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Author : McMillan, Margaret
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2017-05-11
Structural Change Fundamentals And Growth A Framework And Case Studies written by McMillan, Margaret and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-11 with Political Science categories.
Inequality In China Trends Drivers And Policy Remedies
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Author : Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-06-05
Inequality In China Trends Drivers And Policy Remedies written by Ms.Sonali Jain-Chandra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-05 with Business & Economics categories.
China has experienced rapid economic growth over the past two decades and is on the brink of eradicating poverty. However, income inequality increased sharply from the early 1980s and rendered China among the most unequal countries in the world. This trend has started to reverse as China has experienced a modest decline in inequality since 2008. This paper identifies various drivers behind these trends – including structural changes such as urbanization and aging and, more recently, policy initiatives to combat it. It finds that policies will need to play an important role in curbing inequality in the future, as projected structural trends will put further strain on equity considerations. In particular, fiscal policy reforms have the potential to enhance inclusiveness and equity, both on the tax and expenditure side.
Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance In The Long Run
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Author : Maddison Angus
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 1998-09-25
Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance In The Long Run written by Maddison Angus and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-09-25 with categories.
The study provides a major reassessment of the scale and scope of China’s resurgence over the past half century, employing quantitative measurement techniques which are standard practice in OECD countries, but which have not hitherto been available for China.
People S Republic Of China
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-08-15
People S Republic Of China written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-15 with Business & Economics categories.
This Selected Issues paper examines the drivers and prospects for high levels of savings in China. China has one of the highest levels of national savings in the world, which is at the heart of its external and internal imbalances. High and rising household savings have mainly resulted from demographic changes as a result of the one-child policy and the breakdown of the social safety net during the transition from a planned to a market economy. Demographic changes will put downward pressure on national savings. Policy efforts to strengthen the social safety net and reduce income inequality are also needed to reduce savings further and faster and to boost consumption.