The Art And Science Of Business And Economic Forecasting
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The Art And Science Of Business And Economic Forecasting
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Author : Wallace Foster
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1988-03-01
The Art And Science Of Business And Economic Forecasting written by Wallace Foster and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988-03-01 with categories.
Introduction To Financial Forecasting In Investment Analysis
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Author : John B. Guerard, Jr.
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-01-04
Introduction To Financial Forecasting In Investment Analysis written by John B. Guerard, Jr. and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Economic Forecasting The State Of The Art
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Author : Elia Xacapyr
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2016-09-16
Economic Forecasting The State Of The Art written by Elia Xacapyr and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-16 with Business & Economics categories.
An overview of the macroeconomic forecasting industry in the United States that explains and evaluates the forecasting techniques used to make predictions about various aspects of the national economy.
Introduction To Financial Forecasting In Investment Analysis
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Author : John Guerard
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2013-01-03
Introduction To Financial Forecasting In Investment Analysis written by John Guerard and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting—the art and science of predicting future outcomes—has become a crucial skill in business and economic analysis. This volume introduces the reader to the tools, methods, and techniques of forecasting, specifically as they apply to financial and investing decisions. With an emphasis on "earnings per share" (eps), the author presents a data-oriented text on financial forecasting, understanding financial data, assessing firm financial strategies (such as share buybacks and R&D spending), creating efficient portfolios, and hedging stock portfolios with financial futures. The opening chapters explain how to understand economic fluctuations and how the stock market leads the general economic trend; introduce the concept of portfolio construction and how movements in the economy influence stock price movements; and introduce the reader to the forecasting process, including exponential smoothing and time series model estimations. Subsequent chapters examine the composite index of leading economic indicators (LEI); review financial statement analysis and mean-variance efficient portfolios; and assess the effectiveness of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Using data from such firms as Intel, General Electric, and Hitachi, Guerard demonstrates how forecasting tools can be applied to understand the business cycle, evaluate market risk, and demonstrate the impact of global stock selection modeling and portfolio construction.
Forecasting In Business And Economics
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Author : C. W. J. Granger
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press Incorporated
Release Date : 1989-04-28
Forecasting In Business And Economics written by C. W. J. Granger and has been published by Academic Press Incorporated this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989-04-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Describes the major techniques of forecasting used in economics and business. This book focuses on the forecasting of economic data and covers a range of topics, including the description of the Box-Jenkins single series modeling techniques; forecasts from purely statistical and econometric models; nonstationary and nonlinear models; and more.
Forecasting In Business And Economics
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Author : C. W. J. Granger
language : en
Publisher: Academic Press
Release Date : 2014-05-10
Forecasting In Business And Economics written by C. W. J. Granger and has been published by Academic Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting in Business and Economics presents a variety of forecasting techniques and problems. This book discusses the importance of the selection of a relevant information set. Organized into 12 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the forecasting techniques that are useful in decision making. This text then discusses the difficulties in interpreting an apparent trend and discusses its implications. Other chapters consider how a time series is analyzed and forecast by discussing the methods by which a series can be generated. This book discusses as well the views of most academic time series analysts regarding the usefulness of searches for cycles in most economic and business series. The final chapter deals with the techniques developed for forecasting. This book is a valuable resource for senior undergraduates in business, economics, commerce, and management. Graduate students in operations research and production engineering will also find this book extremely useful.
Economic Forecasting
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Author : Elia Kacapyr
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Economic Forecasting written by Elia Kacapyr and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Economic forecasting categories.
The Art And Science Of Econometrics
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Author : Ping Zong
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2022-05-02
The Art And Science Of Econometrics written by Ping Zong and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-05-02 with Business & Economics categories.
Today econometrics has been widely applied in the empirical study of economics. As an empirical science, econometrics uses rigorous mathematical and statistical methods for economic problems. Understanding the methodologies of both econometrics and statistics is a crucial departure for econometrics. The primary focus of this book is to provide an understanding of statistical properties behind econometric methods. Following the introduction in Chapter 1, Chapter 2 provides the methodological review of both econometrics and statistics in different periods since the 1930s. Chapters 3 and 4 explain the underlying theoretical methodologies for estimated equations in the simple regression and multiple regression models and discuss the debates about p-values in particular. This part of the book offers the reader a richer understanding of the methods of statistics behind the methodology of econometrics. Chapters 5–9 of the book are focused on the discussion of regression models using time series data, traditional causal econometric models, and the latest statistical techniques. By concentrating on dynamic structural linear models like state-space models and the Bayesian approach, the book alludes to the fact that this methodological study is not only a science but also an art. This work serves as a handy reference book for anyone interested in econometrics, particularly in relevance to students and academic and business researchers in all quantitative analysis fields.
Market Prophets
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Author : David Stamp
language : en
Publisher: Financial Times/Prentice Hall
Release Date : 2002
Market Prophets written by David Stamp and has been published by Financial Times/Prentice Hall this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Business & Economics categories.
"In Market Prophets , David Stamp enjoyably shows how fallible financial forecasts are. Yet the public demand for them, particularly by exactly the same politicians who claim to be most sceptical, shows no signs of abating. One needs a balanced judgment on the uses and abuses of economic forecasting. This book is good on the potential abuses of forecasts. I hope that he will also write a companion on how to use forecasts more sensibly." - Charles Goodhart, Professor of Banking and Finance at the London School of Economics Can the U.S. economy fully recover from the twin blows of September 11 and the technology crash, or will the prosperous 1990s fade to a distant memory for ordinary Americans? If the United States stumbles, what hope is there for people across the industrial nations, let alone the hundreds of millions trying to escape poverty in the Third World? Will Wall Street soar, crash or stagnate? Are world interest rates heading up or down? Is the euro's nose-dive finally over and will Britain ever adopt the common currency? Financial markets have spawned a forecasting industry to answer such questions serving everyone from private investors to multinational corporations, central banks and the world's governments. But can anyone predict the seemingly unpredicatable? Market Prophets is a guide to the financial forecasting business: an analysis of how the pundits succeed and fail in predicting the ups and downs of markets and economies. It asks if we should pay attention to these soothsayers and, if so, which ones?
Superforecasting
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: National Geographic Books
Release Date : 2016-09-13
Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by National Geographic Books this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-13 with Business & Economics categories.
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.