The Determinants Of Uk Business Cycles
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The Determinants Of Uk Business Cycles
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Author : Allison Holland
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
The Determinants Of Uk Business Cycles written by Allison Holland and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with categories.
This paper considers the ultimate causes of post-war UK business cycles. Using an extended stochastic growth model we construct estimates of a productivity and preference shock, both of which are highly persistent, volatile and potentially capable of explaining UK business cycles. We find the productivity term is the dominant explanation of UK output fluctuations, but our estimated preference shift is crucial in understanding employment movements. We use a variety of Granger causality tests to establish whether these productivity and preference terms are predictable and so can be potentially considered as the ultimate cause of UK business cycles, or whether they are themselves Granger caused by other variables. We find our estimated productivity term is not predicted by any demand-side variable, including various fiscal and monetary policy instruments, but is, to a limited extent, predicted by oil prices and the share of taxes in GDP. This suggests that our "productivity" shock may also reflect other supply-side influences. In contrast, we find our "preference" shift is predicted to a substantial extent by real variables, such as the terms of trade and oil prices, and nominal variables, such as the money supply and the price level. The implications of these findings for competing theories of the business cycle and for the monetary transmission mechanism are discussed.
A Note On The Determinants Of The Uk Business Cycles
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Author : Alexander Day
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999
A Note On The Determinants Of The Uk Business Cycles written by Alexander Day and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Business cycles categories.
Uk Business And Financial Cycles Since 1660
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Author : Nicholas Dimsdale
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2019-11-02
Uk Business And Financial Cycles Since 1660 written by Nicholas Dimsdale and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-02 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is the first of two volumes that aim to provide an up-to-date overview of the key data and techniques necessary for analysing the historical behaviour of business and financial cycles in the United Kingdom. Drawing on an extensive secondary literature and the considerable body of historical macroeconomic and financial time series data that exist for the United Kingdom, the two volumes will review the key features of historical recessions and recoveries over the course of three and a half centuries. Volume 1 provides an overview of UK business cycles since 1660. The first part of the book considers old and new theories of the business cycle, looking at the impulses that generate business cycles and the propagation mechanisms that determine their duration and amplitude. The second part of the book uses the latest historical estimates of GDP to look at different ways of measuring and estimating business cycle fluctuations within a simple univariate framework. Finally, the book provides a narrative of UK economic fluctuations since 1660 using a whole range of economic data to shed light on the main drivers of cyclical behaviour. It concludes by highlighting areas for future research especially with regard to the link between business and financial cycles, some of which will be explored in Volume 2.
Economic Cycles
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Author : Solomos Solomou
language : en
Publisher: Manchester University Press
Release Date : 1998
Economic Cycles written by Solomos Solomou and has been published by Manchester University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Business cycles categories.
The ups and downs of booms and slumps, often referred to as business cycles, are features of all modern economies. This book considers business cycles over three epochs 1870-1913, 1919-1938 and the post-World War II period. It provides an analysis of the key macroeconomic questions relating to economic fluctuations. Why are the ups and down more volatile in some epochs than others? Why are some business cycle shocks more persistent in their effects? Is there an international business cycle? Can present business cycle features predict future patterns? What impact will institutional changes, such as EMU have on future fluctuations?
Determinants Of Growth And Business Cycles
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Author : Christoph Hausen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Determinants Of Growth And Business Cycles written by Christoph Hausen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business cycles categories.
Economic growth and business cycles are two distinct, but closely related issues. Economic growth is one of the most demanding challenges for policy makers and economists all over the world. In industrial countries, significant demographic changes in the decades ahead will have a major impact. At the same time, the degree of interdependency between economic regions is increasing, posing a challenge for industrial as well as developing countries. Business cycles as a topic for economic research sometimes follow a cyclical pattern themselves. Especially after long and strong boom periods the business cycle is often said to be obsolete, replaced by a new kind of pattern, a 'new' economy or the like. The empirical problem for analysts of both growth and business cycles is that new developments are difficult to monitor in real time. Cyclical, structural and other patterns are overlapping, making it difficult to assess the nature of observations. The INFER Annual Conference 2003 on "Determinants of Growth and Business Cycles: Theory, Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications" which was held in September 2003 in Giessen, Germany, gave room for theoretical papers, empirical results and case studies, including vigorous policy statements as well as elaborate modelling with a focus on practical relevance. Most of the presented papers and one of the introductory lectures are included in this volume. Papers were presented in three sessions: Session I focused on the "Determinants of Growth". Session II was on "Business Cycles: Theory and Empirical Evidence". Session III covered "Convergence and Economic Development". Contributors to this volume come from two continents and eight countries, working in research institutes, universities, central banks and international organisations.
Business Cycles The Problem And Its Setting
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Author : Wesley Clair Mitchell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1966
Business Cycles The Problem And Its Setting written by Wesley Clair Mitchell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1966 with Business cycles categories.
Economic Growth And Business Cycles
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Author : Paolo Sylos Labini
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 1993
Economic Growth And Business Cycles written by Paolo Sylos Labini and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1993 with Business & Economics categories.
In this study, Professor Sylos Labini offers an analysis of growth that is at once theoretical, historical and statistical. The central aim of neo-classical economics has been to discover the equilibrium values of prices, incomes, employment and production. This text by contrast, seeks to understand the logic behind the movement of these quantities over time.
Business Cycles And Financial Crises
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Author : A. W. Mullineux
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990
Business Cycles And Financial Crises written by A. W. Mullineux and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with Business & Economics categories.
Beating The Business Cycle
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Author : Lakshman Achuthan
language : en
Publisher: Crown Currency
Release Date : 2004-05-18
Beating The Business Cycle written by Lakshman Achuthan and has been published by Crown Currency this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-05-18 with Business & Economics categories.
How can you make wise decisions about your company and your personal future when you have no idea where the economy is headed? The answer is, you can’t. But you can learn how to accurately predict turns in the economy so that you can see the road ahead. And BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE shows you how. In BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji, the directors of the renowned Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) show how anyone can predict and profit from the inevitable booms and busts of the economy. Why should we believe them? Because while so many economists and financial gurus have failed to predict recessions in the past, ECRI’s forecasts are known for being uncannily accurate. The institute successfully predicted the U.S. recession of 2001 many months before the economists did; the 1990 recession and later recovery; and most recently, the weak U.S. recovery in 2002. ECRI is in constant demand by corporate America and the media. It is the “secret weapon” of companies from Disney to DuPont, the major fund managers, and many central banks. BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE is the first book to reveal how decision makers at all levels–managers, small business owners, and individuals–can see into the economy’s future when making key decisions. Should a large company search out new clients and build new factories or stores, or should it consider cost cutting and layoffs? Is it the right time for you to splurge on that luxury vacation or addition to your house, or would it be more prudent to cut back on big expenditures and save money for a rainy day? Written in an easy-to-understand, accessible style, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE reveals which of the hundreds of economic indicators to trust and which ones to trash. It will give you the tools and confidence you need to make the right decisions at the right times–even when the rest of the investing and business world would persuade you otherwise. Whether you are a corporate manager or the owner of a small business, whether you have your money invested in stocks or in your home, BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE will give you the edge you need to trump the competition and stay ahead of the crowd.
The Birth Of The Business Cycle Rle Business Cycles
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Author : Philip E. Mirowski
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-03-27
The Birth Of The Business Cycle Rle Business Cycles written by Philip E. Mirowski and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Discussing economic theory and English economic history from the eighteenth century until the late 1970s this volume discusses among other things fixed capital and problems with the definition of the premodern economy as well as providing a chronology of 18th century business cycles.