The Effect Of Uncertainity On Investment
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The Effect Of Uncertainity On Investment
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Author : John Vincent Leahy
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995
The Effect Of Uncertainity On Investment written by John Vincent Leahy and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with Capital investments categories.
The Effect Of Uncertainty On Investment Hiring And R D
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Author : Luke C.D. Stein
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
The Effect Of Uncertainty On Investment Hiring And R D written by Luke C.D. Stein and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
There is wide debate over the impact of uncertainty on firm behavior, due to the difficulty both of measuring uncertainty and of identifying causality. This paper takes three steps that attempt to address these challenges. First, we develop an instrumental variables strategy that exploits firms' differential exposure to energy and currency prices and volatility. For example, airlines are negatively affected by high oil prices while oil refiners benefit from them, but both are sensitive to oil price volatility; retailers, in comparison, are not particularly sensitive to either the level or volatility of oil prices. Second, we use the expected volatility of stock prices as implied by equity options to obtain forward-looking measures of uncertainty over firms' business conditions. Finally, we examine how uncertainty affects a range of outcomes: capital investment, hiring, research and development, and advertising. We find that uncertainty depresses capital investment, hiring, and advertising, but encourages R&D spending. This perhaps-surprising result for R&D is consistent with a theoretical literature emphasizing that long investment lags create valuable real put options which offset the effects of call options lost when projects are started. Aggregating across our panel of Compustat firms, we find that rising uncertainty accounts for roughly a third of the fall in capital investment and hiring that occurred in 2008-10.
The Effect Of Uncertainty On Investment Evidence From Texas Oil Drilling
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
The Effect Of Uncertainty On Investment Evidence From Texas Oil Drilling written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
Uncertainty And Investment Dynamics
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Author : Nick Bloom
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Uncertainty And Investment Dynamics written by Nick Bloom and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Corporations categories.
This paper shows that, with (partial) irreversibility, higher uncertainty reduces the impact effect of demand shocks on investment. Uncertainty increases real option values making firms more cautious when investing or disinvesting. This is confirmed both numerically for a model with a rich mix of adjustment costs, time-varying uncertainty, and aggregation over investment decisions and time, and also empirically for a panel of manufacturing firms. These cautionary effects of uncertainty are large - going from the lower quartile to the upper quartile of the uncertainty distribution typically halves the first year investment response to demand shocks. This implies the responsiveness of firms to any given policy stimulus may be much lower in periods of high uncertainty, such as after major shocks like OPEC I and 9/11.
Investment Capital Market Imperfections And Uncertainty
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Author : Robert Lensink
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2001-01-01
Investment Capital Market Imperfections And Uncertainty written by Robert Lensink and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This book presents an up-to-date overview of the theory as well as the empirics of the relationship between investment, financial imperfections and uncertainty. After reviewing the capital market imperfections literature and the empirical results, the authors discuss both traditional investment models with uncertainty and the more modern option based models. They present an overview of empirical results of the modelling of investment under uncertainty. In these examples the effects of capital market imperfections on investment are carefully considered. The authors conclude that there is overwhelming empirical support for a negative uncertainty-investment relationship. This book should appeal to academics with an interest in investment theory, professionals in the financial sector and students of macroeconomics and finance. "Investment, Capital Market Imperfections, and Uncertainty" assumes only a basic knowledge of mathematics and is easily accessible.
Variations In The Effect Of Uncertainty On Different Types Of Investment
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Author : Rajeev K. Goel
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Variations In The Effect Of Uncertainty On Different Types Of Investment written by Rajeev K. Goel and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
Several recent studies, including those by Pindyck (1991), Pindyck and Solimano (1993), Dixit and Pindyck (1994), Episcopos (1995), and Abel et al. (1996), suggest an important linkage between the effect of uncertainty on investment and the irreversibility of the latter. This paper broadly follows the foregoing tradition, but makes the point that it should be possible to distinguish between investments with different degrees of irreversibility and to relate the effect of uncertainty with the degree of investment irreversibility. A simple empirical illustration is provided by using pooled annual data for 12 OECD countries and estimating fixed-effects models for different types of investments. Although caution is appropriate in interpreting the estimates, the evidence suggests that the adverse effect of uncertainty is more severe on investments that have a greater degree of irreversibility.
The Effect Of Uncertainty On Investment Evidence From Texas Oil Drilling
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
The Effect Of Uncertainty On Investment Evidence From Texas Oil Drilling written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
Investment Under Uncertainty
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Author : Robert K. Dixit
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2012-07-14
Investment Under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-14 with Business & Economics categories.
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
The Effects Of Uncertainty On Investment And The Expected Long Run Capital Stock
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Author : Andrew B. Abel
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1983
The Effects Of Uncertainty On Investment And The Expected Long Run Capital Stock written by Andrew B. Abel and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1983 with Capital investments categories.
Investment Under Uncertainty
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Author : Sergei Antoshin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Investment Under Uncertainty written by Sergei Antoshin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
A real options theory - in its classic formulation - suggests that firms invest less during times of high uncertainty, that is, uncertainty depresses investment. However, several theoretical extensions predict that the relationship between investment and uncertainty may be non-linear, or even non-monotonic, when classic model assumptions are violated. Some model parameters either reinforce or weaken the negative effect of uncertainty on investment, while others distort the investment-uncertainty relationship, making it follow an inverted U-curve. This paper is a first - to my knowledge - attempt to identify the factors affecting investment from various streams of theoretical literature on investor choice and uncertainty, and to assemble them in a single empirical framework. By employing a dynamic panel of oil company data and implied volatilities as measures of uncertainty, I am able to examine the impact of uncertainty on investment and the effect of several factors on the investment-uncertainty relationship. I obtain evidence in support of several predictions from the theory. Both economy-wide and firm-specific types of uncertainty, as well as financing constraints, are found to adversely affect investment, while industry-wide uncertainty has an ambiguous effect, depending on the level of output price. In tests for non-linearity in the investment-output price volatility relationship, I find that output price, firm size and its risk management ability weaken the investment-uncertainty relationship. On the other hand, market imperfection, financing constraints, the firm's maturity and its risk aversion re-enforce the negative effect of uncertainty. In addition, adjustment costs seem to be considerable, as firm investment reacts to changes in macroeconomic conditions with a noticeable delay.