The Effects Of Macroeconomic Factors On International Stock Market Returns
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The Effects Of Macroeconomic Factors On International Stock Market Returns
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Author : Abdul Ghani Shafie
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1992
The Effects Of Macroeconomic Factors On International Stock Market Returns written by Abdul Ghani Shafie and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992 with Capital market categories.
Revisiting Macroeconomic Factors And Share Returns
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Author : Patrick B. Baghdasarian
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Revisiting Macroeconomic Factors And Share Returns written by Patrick B. Baghdasarian and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic variables on the returns of a broad cross-section of emerging stock markets (ESMs) for a relatively recent time period. Specifically, the paper examines the quarterly data of select local and global macroeconomic variables for 9 ESMs over the period 2002-09 using the same methodology that was applied in Fifield et al. (2002) on similar sets of data. Applying the methodology used in Fifield et al. (2002) we find that the local economic variables included in the study can be summarized by net exports, interest rates, and currency, while global variables can be summarized by world-market returns and US interest rates. The paper uses principal component analyses (PCA) to reduce the number of the variables. The principal components (PCs) are then selected by way of ad hoc rules-of-thumbs. A scree test is then applied in conjunction with an analysis of the acceleration factors of each scree plot to provide robustness. Essentially, a minimum of 0.5173 to a maximum of 0.7775 of the variation can be explained by the first PC, while approximately 0.76 to 0.95 of the cumulative variance can be explained by both the first and second PC. We retain the first and second PCs; thus, we can reduce the dimensionality of the variables from six to two variables. The retained PCs are used as inputs into two regression analyses in order to explain the variation of index returns within each of the 9 ESMs over the period 2002-09. The first regression analysis only includes PCs retained that contain global macroeconomic variables, while the second includes both the PCs that contain global macroeconomic variables as well as PCs that contain information at the local level or local macroeconomic information. The R2 and adj. R2 of each regression analysis was compared for robustness. The regression analysis indicates that while global factors are consistently significant with a high degree across the cross-section of ESMs when both the first and second recession analysis is investigated, local factors, do not show consistent significance across the cross-section of ESMs when the second regression analysis is investigated. Additionally, we use the retained global and local PCs as inputs for a third regression analysis in which the residuals of the first model are used as an input for the dependent variable in order to make sure the improvement in the R2 and adj. R2 between the first and second regression analysis are attributed to a robustness versus general improvements of R2 and adj. R2 due to adding additional variables. After examining the R2 and adj. R2 we find that although the first regression analysis has a relatively higher R2 and adj. R2 compared to the second linear mode the first linear model does not provide a high enough R2 or adj. R2. Essentially, both linear models lack predictive prowess because Additionally, the second linear model does not show much improvement to the first when we add additional explanatory variables. This was validated when we examined the R2 and adj. R2 of the third linear model as both variables were significantly lower than the R2 and adj. R2 of the first model. Furthermore, for certain ESM the variance among local variable show a degree of significance, but they do not show the same high degree of significance as compared to the level of significance indicated by the global macroeconomic variables. Finally, cross-validation (CV) was applied to both models. We find that for the ESM that had significant local variables for some & alpha; the second model had a lower mean squared error (MSE) compared to the MSE of the first model.
Business Economics Financial Sciences And Management
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Author : Min Zhu
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-02-11
Business Economics Financial Sciences And Management written by Min Zhu and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-02-11 with Technology & Engineering categories.
A series of papers on business, economics, and financial sciences, management selected from International Conference on Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management are included in this volume. Management in all business and organizational activities is the act of getting people together to accomplish desired goals and objectives using available resources efficiently and effectively. Management comprises planning, organizing, staffing, leading or directing, and controlling an organization (a group of one or more people or entities) or effort for the purpose of accomplishing a goal. Resourcing encompasses the deployment and manipulation of human resources, financial resources, technological resources and natural resources. The proceedings of BEFM2011 focuses on the various aspects of advances in Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management and provides a chance for academic and industry professionals to discuss recent progress in the area of Business, Economics, and Financial Sciences, Management. It is hoped that the present book will be useful to experts and professors, both specialists and graduate students in the related fields.
Macroeconomic Factors And International Industry Returns
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Author : Stelios Markoulis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Macroeconomic Factors And International Industry Returns written by Stelios Markoulis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
The aim of this article is to examine the global sources of risk in 38 international industries for the period 1987:3-1997:10. Past studies on industry returns and risk have been performed at a national level. However, given the global integration of various industry sectors, it would be interesting to examine the importance of international industry stock returns at the global level. The investment implications of this article, therefore, are that investors could make capital gains by timing their investments, and/or adjust the degree of their portfolio diversification, not only across industries domestically or across countries, internationally but also across global industries. A unique database compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International on 38 international industries is used. The return on the world equity market portfolio and innovations in the following pre-specified set of global macro variables are employed in the analysis: (i) industrial production, (ii) infiation, (iii) oil prices, (iv) fluctuations in exchange rates against the US dollar, and (v) a measure of credit risk. The most important finding ofthis paper is that the long run impacts of macroeconomic news have different effects in different industries.
Stock Market Response To Unexpected Macroeconomic News
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Author : Mahdi Sadeghi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1992-08-01
Stock Market Response To Unexpected Macroeconomic News written by Mahdi Sadeghi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables and Australian stock returns over the period 1980-1991. The results suggest that stock returns are positively correlated with any surprise news in the current account deficit, the exchange rate and growth rate of real GDP, and negatively correlated with surprise news about the inflation rate and interest rates. Stock returns are also positively correlated with the unexpected unemployment rate and negatively correlated to revisions in the expected unemployment rate. The results furthermore suggest that market portfolios can detect the impact of common economic shocks better than the portfolios of the two main subsectors of the market.
Do Macroeconomic Variables Have An Effect On The Us Stock Market
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Author : Dennis Sauert
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2010-10-12
Do Macroeconomic Variables Have An Effect On The Us Stock Market written by Dennis Sauert and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.
Impact Of Financial Market Uncertainty On Market Returns
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Author : Maryam Abid
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Impact Of Financial Market Uncertainty On Market Returns written by Maryam Abid and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
This paper examines the effect of financial market uncertainty on market returns of different countries of the world. The effect of other macroeconomic factors on the world's Equity Market Indices was also explored. These factors included Consumer Price Index (CPI), Real Interest Rates (R.IR), Market Capitalization (MCAP), and Gross Domestic Product per capita growth (GDPPCG).For analyzing this relationship, around 40 countries data including developed and developing countries, over the period of 10 years from 2009-2018 which included major ups and downs occurred in the Equity markets of the world. To calculate financial market uncertainty, we followed Chang et al. (2000) methodology, involving cross-sectional absolute standard deviations (CSAD) among individual Countries returns, to define non-linear relations between equity return dispersions and market returns. For analysis, Panel Least Square (PLS) was used. Fixed Effect Model (FEM) is used to check the overall strength of the model, and checking heterogeneity of different countries. Group correlation was also performed on overall variables to check the causal relationship between all the variables and individual regression tests are also conducted country wise to explore that how much this model is applicable in selected countries and individual countries descriptive analysis for market return and uncertainty to check the moments of these variables. The overall results concluded that market returns are affected by the uncertainty of the financial markets in the long run and it is a significant variable in explaining market returns while overall test results proved a positive relationship with market returns but individual testing of this model on each country shows, more than half countries in the study have a negative relationship of financial market uncertainty with market returns. Along with this, other macro-economic variables impact is also measured over market returns of the world which shows all variables Consumer Price Index, Real Interest Rates, and Market Capitalization except Gross Domestic Product per capita growth have a negative relationship with the Market returns.
Do Macroeconomic Variables Have An Effect On The Us Stock Market
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Author : Dennis Sauert
language : en
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2010-10
Do Macroeconomic Variables Have An Effect On The Us Stock Market written by Dennis Sauert and has been published by GRIN Verlag this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2010 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: 1.0, Berlin School of Economics, language: English, abstract: The objective of this paper is to examine whether the unanticipated change of specific macroeconomic variables influences the US stock market represented by the S&P 500 using monthly data from 1986 to 2007. Thereby, the performance of the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross (cp. Ross, S., 1976) shall be studied. To explain the behavior of the US stock market return the paper contains the five predefined variables consumer price index (CPI), industrial production index (IPT), money stock M1 (M1), total consumer credit outstanding (TCC) and the term structure of interest rates (Term) which are approximately similar to those variables used by Ross (cp. Chen N. F. et al., 1986, pp. 383-403). Applying the OLS method, it was found that CPI, IPT and Term are negatively related to the US stock return. It was also detected that M1 affects the stock market lagging 8 months and 12 months. However, the test statistics showed that TCC has rather no impact on the US stock market return. To ensure that the ultimate results are not spurious, care will be taken in regards to autocorrelation, multicollinearity, serial correlation as well as heteroskedasticity.
Statistical Bulletin
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Author : United States. Securities and Exchange Commission
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977
Statistical Bulletin written by United States. Securities and Exchange Commission and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with Securities categories.
Stock Market Performance Macro Economic Variables An Empirical Study Of Stock Market
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Author : Arnav V
language : en
Publisher: Arnav
Release Date : 2022-12-23
Stock Market Performance Macro Economic Variables An Empirical Study Of Stock Market written by Arnav V and has been published by Arnav this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-12-23 with categories.
Owing to the ever-increasing importance of the financial markets, particularly the stock markets, in the economic development, especially of capital seeking developing nations, a plethora of studies have been conducted to examine the factors determining and influencing the stock market variables such as stock returns, market capitalisation, and turnover, amongst others. The present study examines the impact and role of macroeconomic variables on the stock market performance of an important developing country, viz., India. This relationship is examined from the framework of three main research objectives of investigating the relationship between macroeconomic variables and Indian stock market performance; modelling the crash of Indian stock market during the global financial crisis of 2007 - 2009 using the domestic and international macroeconomic variables, and predicting the movements in stock market variables using macroeconomic variables.
