The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Prices Conventional Versus News Models
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The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Prices Conventional Versus News Models
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Author : John Vaz
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Prices Conventional Versus News Models written by John Vaz and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
Stock prices are usually analysed and explained in terms of underlying financial indicators, such as earnings per share or dividend payout ratios. Nevertheless, fluctuations in the conditions of the economy can result in changes in demand, which can impact on profits and dividends. Since macroeconomic variables affect financial indicators it follows that macroeconomic variables affect stock prices. If markets are rational and efficient, then stock prices will reflect all known information regarding macroeconomic factors that are perceived to affect stock prices. It follows that stock prices should not change significantly unless there is a surprise or news about the state of the economy (as reflected in unexpected changes in macroeconomic variables). Intuitively, this implies that models of stock price determination based on news ought to be superior to conventional models that use the levels or changes in variables. The utilisation of news in research on stock prices is very limited. Two approaches have been traditionally used to represent the news in the absence of surveys of expectations: either by assuming announcements are news such as those in event studies or by using an econometric time series approach to extract the news components from total changes in the variables, as is the case with the news model. The majority of studies involving news models have been in the foreign exchange market using news estimated econometrically-very little has been done in estimating and testing a macro news model of stock prices and certainly nothing has been done on stock prices in developed economies such as Australia. Thus this research is motivated by the significant gaps in the literature with respect to the development, estimation and testing of a news model of stock prices. Most of the studies that investigate the relations between macro variables and stock prices have been carried out using conventional approaches by estimating models that use the variables in their levels. Some of the multivariable models of stock prices arise as a result of anomalies found in implementing the capital asset pricing model. Other multivariable approaches such as the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), due to Ross (1976), suggest that macro variables are useful, but APT is silent on the appropriate macroeconomic explanatory variables. Furthermore, there have been limited attempts to examine macroeconomic variables collectively, but not with the aim of developing a macro model of stock prices. This thesis presents the results of research that uses comprehensive econometric procedures to investigate which macroeconomic variables have significant effects on Australian stock prices and whether news about such variables can enhance the performance of conventional stock price determination models. Seven macroeconomic variables are examined: interest rates, inflation, the money supply, economic activity, commodity prices, exchange rates and a foreign stock market index to account for spill-over effects. This provides a valuable contribution to the understanding of the individual effects of macroeconomic variables on stock prices and adds to the limited literature regarding the usefulness of news in models of stock price determination. The results from this research demonstrate that although news is a theoretically sound and intuitively plausible basis for improving macro models of stock prices, in practice there is no ex-ante exploitation possible by estimating news utilising econometric methods. Simply put, news cannot be predicted-this is established by using three comprehensive methods of estimating news, which is the residual of a model fitted to the time series data of a particular variable.
Changes In Macroeconomic Variables And Their Impact On Stock Price Indices A Case Study Of The Financial Times Stock Exchange Ftse And Johannesburg Stock Exchange Jse Indices
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Author : Kudzanai Chakona
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022-10-22
Changes In Macroeconomic Variables And Their Impact On Stock Price Indices A Case Study Of The Financial Times Stock Exchange Ftse And Johannesburg Stock Exchange Jse Indices written by Kudzanai Chakona and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-10-22 with categories.
Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2017 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, Birmingham City University, course: MSc Accountancy and Finance (ACCA), language: English, abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyse the changes in macroeconomic variables and evaluate the impact on a company's stock prices, by examining the impact of changes macroeconomic variables, determining which macro-economic variables that have the least and most impact on stock prices and also suggest ways in which the impact on the macroeconomic variables on stock prices can be hedged against using agricultural futures, metal futures or a risk-free asset. The study will use five econometric models to test this impact, these include the Granger Causality test, Johansen Co-Integration test, Vector Error Model, Walt Test statistic, Multiple Regression Model. A review of a number of academic literature by notable analysis for both developed and developing markets will be provided. The FTSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developed markets and the JSE share price index will be used in the study to represent the developing markets.
Stock Prices And Monetary Policy
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Author : Paul De Grauwe
language : en
Publisher: CEPS
Release Date : 2008
Stock Prices And Monetary Policy written by Paul De Grauwe and has been published by CEPS this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Monetary policy categories.
The question of whether central banks should target stock prices so as to prevent bubbles and crashes from occurring has been hotly debated. This paper analyses this question using a behavioural macroeconomic model. This model generates bubbles and crashes. It analyses how 'leaning against the wind' strategies, which aim to reduce the volatility of stock prices, can help in reducing volatility of output and inflation. We find that such policies can be effective in reducing macroeconomic volatility, thereby improving the trade-off between output and inflation variability. The strength of this result, however, depends on the degree of credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. In the absence of such credibility, policies aiming at stabilising stock prices do not stabilise output and inflation.
Forecasting Expected Returns In The Financial Markets
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Author : Stephen Satchell
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2011-04-08
Forecasting Expected Returns In The Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-04-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting returns is as important as forecasting volatility in multiple areas of finance. This topic, essential to practitioners, is also studied by academics. In this new book, Dr Stephen Satchell brings together a collection of leading thinkers and practitioners from around the world who address this complex problem using the latest quantitative techniques. *Forecasting expected returns is an essential aspect of finance and highly technical *The first collection of papers to present new and developing techniques *International authors present both academic and practitioner perspectives
News Shocks In Open Economies
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Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-09-29
News Shocks In Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-29 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
International Dimensions Of Monetary Policy
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Author : Jordi Galí
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2010-03-15
International Dimensions Of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-03-15 with Business & Economics categories.
United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Did The Bundesbank React To Stock Price Movements
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Author : Martin T. Bohl
language : de
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Did The Bundesbank React To Stock Price Movements written by Martin T. Bohl and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between stock returns and short-term interestIn diesem Diskussionspapier untersuchen wir den Zusammenhang zwischen.
Asset Prices And Monetary Policy
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Author : John Y. Campbell
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2008-11-15
Asset Prices And Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-11-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
Financial Markets And The Real Economy
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Author : John H. Cochrane
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Release Date : 2005
Financial Markets And The Real Economy written by John H. Cochrane and has been published by Now Publishers Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.
Geopolitical Risk On Stock Returns Evidence From Inter Korea Geopolitics
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Author : Seungho Jung
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-10-22
Geopolitical Risk On Stock Returns Evidence From Inter Korea Geopolitics written by Seungho Jung and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.
