The Fat Tail
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The Fat Tail
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Author : Ian Bremmer
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2010-05-13
The Fat Tail written by Ian Bremmer and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-13 with Business & Economics categories.
As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist
Statistical Consequences Of Fat Tails
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Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020-06-30
Statistical Consequences Of Fat Tails written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-30 with categories.
The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "naïve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.
The Fat Tail
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Author : Ian Bremmer
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2010-05-13
The Fat Tail written by Ian Bremmer and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-05-13 with Business & Economics categories.
As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreward that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. "The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have." --Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World "Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests." --Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable." --Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist
The Fat Tail
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Author : Ian Bremmer
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
The Fat Tail written by Ian Bremmer and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Country risk categories.
The Fat Tail
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Author : Ian Bremmer
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Release Date : 2009
The Fat Tail written by Ian Bremmer and has been published by Oxford University Press, USA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Business & Economics categories.
Explores a wide array of political risks--including risks that stem from terrorist groups, power rivalries, weak leaders and internal strife and more--and offers methods, tools and concepts to help corporations, money managers and policy makers understand political risks. Cowritten by the author of The J Curve. Reprint.
Fat Tail Mag Volume I Number 2
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Author : Edvin Lemus
language : en
Publisher: CreateSpace
Release Date : 2014-11-14
Fat Tail Mag Volume I Number 2 written by Edvin Lemus and has been published by CreateSpace this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-14 with categories.
We will discuss thin tails as that which is buried as in a treasure hunt, what I mean is that thin tails have the potential of being fat and actualize, yet they remain hidden and rare. In business we say as the next big thing. The Beatles were not always big, in fact they were rejected six times by six labels. Hence it is very difficult to forecast in the future what is a fat tail only after it has reached a crossover and moved into the fat tail domain.
Fat Tailed And Skewed Asset Return Distributions
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Author : Svetlozar T. Rachev
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2005-09-15
Fat Tailed And Skewed Asset Return Distributions written by Svetlozar T. Rachev and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-09-15 with Business & Economics categories.
While mainstream financial theories and applications assume that asset returns are normally distributed, overwhelming empirical evidence shows otherwise. Yet many professionals don’t appreciate the highly statistical models that take this empirical evidence into consideration. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions examines this dilemma and offers readers a less technical look at how portfolio selection, risk management, and option pricing modeling should and can be undertaken when the assumption of a non-normal distribution for asset returns is violated. Topics covered in this comprehensive book include an extensive discussion of probability distributions, estimating probability distributions, portfolio selection, alternative risk measures, and much more. Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions provides a bridge between the highly technical theory of statistical distributional analysis, stochastic processes, and econometrics of financial returns and real-world risk management and investments.
Fat Tail Mag Volume Ii Number 1
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Author : Edvin Lemus
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015-03-23
Fat Tail Mag Volume Ii Number 1 written by Edvin Lemus and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-23 with categories.
Fat Tail Mag Volume II Number 1: Let us begin with a discussion of fat tails from the beginning, I mean not from the data nor big data, but from the event itself. Any given event based on ignorance of the causes and the frequency has a probability of one half, for example something is or is not, the world exist or doesn't exist, the sun will rise or not rise, eternity is prior to time, or time is in eternity. Two outcomes will give the event a probability of ½ and with time the process will converge to the event. Now the event is subjective, I mean that one part is known and the other is unknown relative to someone who can possible know as a whole. Therefore the event converging in time, and symbolize as a ratio, hence everything can be reduced to two outcomes, whether universal and particular, form and matter, or entity and unit.
The Fat Tail Of The Numa
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Author : Yehuda Amichai
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1978
The Fat Tail Of The Numa written by Yehuda Amichai and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1978 with categories.
Modelling The Fat Tail Distribution Of Security Market Returns
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Author : Chun-Sun Choi
language : en
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
Release Date : 2017-01-27
Modelling The Fat Tail Distribution Of Security Market Returns written by Chun-Sun Choi and has been published by Open Dissertation Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-27 with categories.
This dissertation, "Modelling the Fat Tail Distribution of Security Market Returns" by Chun-sun, Choi, 蔡進晨, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3197577 Subjects: Stock exchanges - China - Hong Kong - Statistical methods Distribution (Probability theory) Stock exchanges - Statistical methods