The Impact Of Political Uncertainty On Stock Markets And Politically Connected Firms An Italian Case Study
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The Impact Of Political Uncertainty On Stock Markets And Politically Connected Firms An Italian Case Study
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Author : Jessica Bormetti
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
The Impact Of Political Uncertainty On Stock Markets And Politically Connected Firms An Italian Case Study written by Jessica Bormetti and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
The link between finance and politics always existed, but the interest in that topic appears to be growing as also more research is been performed in that regard. Different political events - from elections to legislation changes, or specific events like Brexit can lead to a state of instability and insecurity, which consequently influences negatively the financial markets. Such effects are mainly due to decreasing investors confidence and a more risk-averse approach towards financial decisions, which leads to an overall fall in investment activities. This thesis examines the impact of political uncertainty in Italy on the countrys stock market, as well as on companies specific features (such as stock performance, market power and riskiness). The analysis differentiates the Italian companies into two groups: those that are politically connected and those that are not linked to any political counterparty, with the aim to study if those two groups behave differently during times of political turmoil. The key findings show that political uncertainty affects Italian politically connected firms (PCFs) stronger than their non-connected peers, in terms of stock performance and riskiness. During political distress, PCFs are more exposed to the financial market, but are also more protected by their political relations.*****The link between finance and politics always existed, but the interest in that topic appears to be growing as also more research is been performed in that regard. Different political events - from elections to legislation changes, or specific events like Brexit can lead to a state of instability and insecurity, which consequently influences negatively the financial markets. Such effects are mainly due to decreasing investors confidence and a more risk-averse approach towards financial decisions, which leads to an overall fall in investment activities. This thesis examines the impact of political uncertainty in Italy on the countrys stock market, as well as
Geopolitical Risk On Stock Returns Evidence From Inter Korea Geopolitics
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Author : Seungho Jung
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-10-22
Geopolitical Risk On Stock Returns Evidence From Inter Korea Geopolitics written by Seungho Jung and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-22 with Business & Economics categories.
We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.
Systematic Reviews In The Social Sciences
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Author : Mark Petticrew
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2008-04-15
Systematic Reviews In The Social Sciences written by Mark Petticrew and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Psychology categories.
Such diverse thinkers as Lao-Tze, Confucius, and U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have all pointed out that we need to be able to tell the difference between real and assumed knowledge. The systematic review is a scientific tool that can help with this difficult task. It can help, for example, with appraising, summarising, and communicating the results and implications of otherwise unmanageable quantities of data. This book, written by two highly-respected social scientists, provides an overview of systematic literature review methods: Outlining the rationale and methods of systematic reviews; Giving worked examples from social science and other fields; Applying the practice to all social science disciplines; It requires no previous knowledge, but takes the reader through the process stage by stage; Drawing on examples from such diverse fields as psychology, criminology, education, transport, social welfare, public health, and housing and urban policy, among others. Including detailed sections on assessing the quality of both quantitative, and qualitative research; searching for evidence in the social sciences; meta-analytic and other methods of evidence synthesis; publication bias; heterogeneity; and approaches to dissemination.
Pricing Protest The Response Of Financial Markets To Social Unrest
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2021-03-19
Pricing Protest The Response Of Financial Markets To Social Unrest written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Using a new daily index of social unrest, we provide systematic evidence on the negative impact of social unrest on stock market performance. An average social unrest episode in an typical country causes a 1.4 percentage point drop in cumulative abnormal returns over a two-week event window. This drop is more pronounced for events that last longer and for events that happen in emerging markets. Stronger institutions, particularly better governance and more democratic systems, mitigate the adverse impact of social unrest on stock market returns.
The Gcc Banking Sector
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Author : Abdullah Al-Hassan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-04-01
The Gcc Banking Sector written by Abdullah Al-Hassan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
In this paper, we analyze the evolution of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) banking sectors in the six member countries including ownership, concentration, cross-border linkages, balance sheet exposures and risks, recent trends in credit growth, and financial soundness. We identify risks to the banking sector's financial stability in the context of the current global crisis and their mitigating factors.
Business Cycles
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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2020-10-06
Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Political Cycles And The Macroeconomy
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Author : Alberto Alesina
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1997
Political Cycles And The Macroeconomy written by Alberto Alesina and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1997 with Business & Economics categories.
This book examines how electoral laws, the timing of election, the ideological orientation of governments, and the nature of competition between political parties influence unemployment, economic growth, inflation, and monetary and fiscal policy. The book presents both a thorough overview of the theoretical literature and a vast amount of empirical evidence.
Global Waves Of Debt
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-03
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Geo Economics The Interplay Between Geopolitics Economics And Investments
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Author : Joachim Klement
language : en
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
Release Date : 2021-04-28
Geo Economics The Interplay Between Geopolitics Economics And Investments written by Joachim Klement and has been published by CFA Institute Research Foundation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Today’s investors need to understand geopolitical trends as a main driving force of markets. This book provides just that: an understanding of the interplay between geopolitics and economics, and of the impact of that dynamic on financial markets. To me, geo-economics is the study of how geopolitics and economics interact in international relations. Plenty of books on geopolitics have been written by eminent experts in politics and international affairs. This book is not one of them. First, I am neither a political scientist nor an expert in international affairs. I am an economist and an investment strategist who has been fascinated by geopolitics for many years. And this fascination has led me to the realization that almost all books and articles written on geopolitics are useless for investors. Political scientists are not trained to think like investors, and they are not typically trained in quantitative methods. Instead, they engage in developing narratives for geopolitical events and processes that pose risks and opportunities for investors. My main problem with these narratives is that they usually do not pass the “so what?” test. Geopolitical risks are important, but how am I to assess which risks are important for my portfolio and which ones are simply noise? Because geopolitics experts focus on politics, they do not provide an answer to this crucial question for investors. What could be important for a geopolitics expert and for global politics could be totally irrelevant for investors. For example, the US wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been going on for almost two decades now and have been an important influence on the political discussion in the United States. But for investors, the war in Afghanistan was a total nonevent, and the war in Iraq had only a fleeting influence, when it started in 2003. Geopolitics experts cannot answer the question of which geopolitical events matter for investors and which do not. Unfortunately, some experts thus claim that all geopolitical risks matter and that these risks cannot be quantified but only assessed qualitatively. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the chapters that follow, I discuss geopolitical and geo-economic events from the viewpoint of an investor and show that they can be quantified and introduced as part of a traditional risk management process. I do this in two parts. The first part of this book focuses on geopolitics that matters to investors. It reviews the literature on a range of geopolitical events and shows which events have a material economic effect and which do not. The second part of this book puts the insights from those first chapters into practice by applying them to current geopolitical trends. In this second part, I stick my head out and examine the impact the geopolitical trends have on the economy and financial markets today and their likely development in the coming years. —Joachim Klement, CFA
Powering The Digital Economy Opportunities And Risks Of Artificial Intelligence In Finance
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Author : El Bachir Boukherouaa
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-10-22
Powering The Digital Economy Opportunities And Risks Of Artificial Intelligence In Finance written by El Bachir Boukherouaa and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-10-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
