The Impossibility Of Rational Bubbles

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The Impossibility Of Rational Bubbles

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Author : Behzad T. Diba
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1985

The Impossibility Of Rational Bubbles written by Behzad T. Diba and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985 with Capital assets pricing model categories.

A rational bubble would involve a self-confirming belief that an asset price depends on information that includes variables or parameters that are not part of market fundamentals. The existing literature shows that, if market fundamentals are economically interesting, i.e., forward looking, any rational bubbles would be either explosive or implosive. Further arguments based on the existing literature show that utility maximizing behavior implies finite bounds on asset prices and, accordingly, precludes both explosive and implosive rational price expectations, except for the possible case of an implosion in the value of fiat money. These arguments rule out both positive and negative rational bubbles, except for the poissibility of rational inflationary bubbles.This paper extends the theoretical analysis of rational bubbles in two ways. First, it shows that, although a supply response of the current asset stock to the current asset price dampens fluctuations in market fundamentals, such a response would cause a rational bubble to explode or to implode even faster.Thus, the explosiveness or implosiveness of rational bubbles isnot an artifact of assuming that the asset stock evolves autonomously. Second, and more importantly, the present analysis considers the inception of rational bubbles and shows that, for anegative rational bubble -- such as a rational inflationary bubble -- to get started, a positive rational bubble also would have to have positive probability. Specifically, the expected initial absolute value of a potential negative rational bubble cannot exceed the expected, initial value of a potential positive rational bubble.This result dramatically expands the theoretical basis for precluding rational bubbles. Specifically, because utility maximization directly rules out rational deflationary bubbles, the inception of a rational inflationary bubbles is also precluded

The Impossibility Of Rational Bubbles

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1985

The Impossibility Of Rational Bubbles written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1985 with categories.

Bubbles Rational Expectations And Financial Markets

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Author : Olivier J. Blanchard
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982

Bubbles Rational Expectations And Financial Markets written by Olivier J. Blanchard and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Capital assets pricing model categories.

This paper investigates the nature and the presence of bubbles in financial markets. Are bubbles consistent with rationality? If they are, do they, like Ponzi games, require the presence of new players forever? Do they imply impossible events in finite time, such as negative prices? Do they need to go on forever to be rational? Can they have real effects? These are some of the questions asked in the first three sections. The general conclusion is that bubbles, in many markets, are consistent with rationality, that phenomena such as runaway asset prices and market crashes are consistent with rational bubbles. In the last two sections, we consider whether the presence of bubbles in a particular market can be detected statistically. The task is much easier if there are data on both prices and returns. In this case, as shown by Shiller and Singleton, the hypothesis of no bubble implies restrictions on their joint distribution and can be tested. In markets in which returns are difficult to observe, possibly because of a nonpecuniary component, such as gold, the task is more difficult. We consider the use of both "runs tests" and "tail tests" and conclude that they give circumstantial evidence at best.

Rational Bubbles

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Author : Matthias Salge
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Rational Bubbles written by Matthias Salge and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

3 On the Economic Relevance of Rational Bubbles 79 3. 1 Capital markets . . . . . . . . . 80 3. 1. 1 Efficient capital markets 86 3. 1. 2 Rational bubbles on capital markets. 93 3. 1. 3 Economic caveats . 103 3. 2 Foreign exchange markets 109 3. 3 Hyperinflation. . . . . . . 117 4 On Testing for Rational Bubbles 123 4. 1 Indirect tests . . . . . . . . . 123 4. 1. 1 Variance bounds tests 124 4. 1. 2 Specification tests . . . 137 4. 1. 3 Integration and cointegration tests 140 4. 1. 4 Final assessment of indirect tests . 150 4. 1. 5 A digression: Charemza, Deadman (1995) analysis. 151 4. 2 Direct tests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 4. 2. 1 Deterministic bubble in German hyperinflation. 158 4. 2. 2 Intrinsic bubbles on stock markets. 163 4. 2. 3 An econometric caveat . . . . . 168 4. 2. 4 Final assessment of direct tests 172 5 On the Explanatory Power of Rational Bubbles on the G- man Stock Market 175 5. 1 Data . . . . . . . 175 5. 2 Direct test for rational bubbles 181 5. 2. 1 Temporary Markovian bubbles. 184 5. 2. 2 Temporary intrinsic bubbles . . 193 ix 5. 2. 3 Permanent intrinsic bubbles 198 5. 3 A digression: Testing for unit roots 204 6 Concluding Remarks 215 A Results 221 A. 1 Temporary markovian bubbles. 221 A. 2 Temporary intrinsic bubbles . . 225 A. 3 Permanent intrinsic bubbles - Class 1 to 2 229 A. 4 Permanent intrinsic bubbles - Class 3 to 6 230 A. 5 Integration tests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bubbles Rational Expectations And Financial Markets

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Author : Olivier J. Blanchard
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010

Bubbles Rational Expectations And Financial Markets written by Olivier J. Blanchard and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.

This paper investigates the nature and the presence of bubbles in financial markets. Are bubbles consistent with rationality? If they are, do they, like Ponzi games, require the presence of new players forever? Do they imply impossible events in finite time, such as negative prices? Do they need to go on forever to be rational? Can they have real effects? These are some of the questions asked in the first three sections. The general conclusion is that bubbles, in many markets, are consistent with rationality, that phenomena such as runaway asset prices and market crashes are consistent with rational bubbles. In the last two sections, we consider whether the presence of bubbles in a particular market can be detected statistically. The task is much easier if there are data on both prices and returns. In this case, as shown by Shiller and Singleton, the hypothesis of no bubble implies restrictions on their joint distribution and can be tested. In markets in which returns are difficult to observe, possibly because of a nonpecuniary component, such as gold, the task is more difficult. We consider the use of both quot;runs testsquot; and quot;tail testsquot; and conclude that they give circumstantial evidence at best.

Bursting The Bubble Rationality In A Seemingly Irrational Market

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Author : David F. DeRosa
language : en
Publisher: CFA Institute Research Foundation
Release Date : 2021-04-02

Bursting The Bubble Rationality In A Seemingly Irrational Market written by David F. DeRosa and has been published by CFA Institute Research Foundation this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-04-02 with Business & Economics categories.

The presence of speculative bubbles in capital markets (an important area of interest in financial history) is widely accepted across many circles. Talk of them is pervasive in the media and especially in the popular financial press. Bubbles are thought to be found primarily in the stock market, which is our main interest, although bubbles are said to occur in other markets. Bubbles go hand in hand with the notion that markets can be irrational. The academic community has a great interest in bubbles, and it has produced scholarly literature that is voluminous. For some economists, doing bubble research is like joining the vanguard of a Kuhnian paradigm shift in economic thinking. Not so fast. If bubbles did exist, they would pose a serious challenge to neoclassical finance. Bubbles would contradict the ideas that markets are rational or work in an informationally efficient manner. That’s what makes the topic of bubbles interesting. This book reviews and evaluates the academic literature as well as some popular investment books on the possible existence of speculative bubbles in the stock market. The main question is whether there is convincing empirical evidence that bubbles exist. A second question is whether the theoretical concepts that have been advanced for bubbles make them plausible. The reader will discover that I am skeptical that bubbles actually exist. But I do not think I or anyone else will ever be able to conclusively prove that there has never been a bubble. From studying the literature and from reading history, I find that many famous purported bubbles reflect inaccurate history or mistakes in analysis or simply cannot be shown to have existed. In other instances, bubbles might have existed. But in each of those cases, there are credible rational explanations. And good evidence exists for the idea that even if bubbles do exist, they are not of great importance to understanding the stock market.

Speculative Bubbles Speculative Attacks And Policy Switching

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Author : Robert P. Flood
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1994

Speculative Bubbles Speculative Attacks And Policy Switching written by Robert P. Flood and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Business & Economics categories.

The papers in this book are grouped into three sections: the first on price bubbles is primarily financial; the second on speculative attacks (on exchange rate regimes) is international in scope; and the third, on policy switching, is concerned with monetary policy.

From Catastrophe To Chaos A General Theory Of Economic Discontinuities

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Author : J. Barkley Rosser
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2000-06-30

From Catastrophe To Chaos A General Theory Of Economic Discontinuities written by J. Barkley Rosser and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000-06-30 with Business & Economics categories.

From Catastrophe to Chaos: A General Theory of Economic Discontinuities presents and unusual perspective on economics and economic analysis. Current economic theory largely depends upon assuming that the world is fundamentally continuous. However, an increasing amount of economic research has been done using approaches that allow for discontinuities such as catastrophe theory, chaos theory, synergetics, and fractal geometry. The spread of such approaches across a variety of disciplines of thought has constituted a virtual intellectual revolution in recent years. This book reviews the applications of these approaches in various subdisciplines of economics and draws upon past economic thinkers to develop an integrated view of economics as a whole from the perspective of inherent discontinuity.

Bubbles And Contagion In Financial Markets Volume 2

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Author : Eva R. Porras
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-10-31

Bubbles And Contagion In Financial Markets Volume 2 written by Eva R. Porras and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.

This book focuses on extending the models and theories (from a mathematical/statistical point of view) which were introduced in the first volume to a more technical level. Where volume I provided an introduction to the mathematics of bubbles and contagion, volume II digs far more deeply and widely into the modeling aspects.

Journal Of Monetary Economics

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1988

Journal Of Monetary Economics written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1988 with categories.