The Inflation Risk Premium In The Post Lehman Period
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The Inflation Risk Premium In The Post Lehman Period
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
The Inflation Risk Premium In The Post Lehman Period written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
Inflation Risk Premium
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Author : Olesya V. Grishchenko
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Inflation Risk Premium written by Olesya V. Grishchenko and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
Quot;Inflation-indexed securities would appear to be the most direct source of information about inflation expectations and real interest rates.quot; (Bernanke, 2004). In this paper we study the term structure of real interest rates, expected inflation, and inflation risk premia using data on prices of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) over the period 2000-2007. The estimates of the 10-year inflation risk premium are between 11 and 22 basis points for 2000-2007 depending on the proxy used for the expected inflation. Furthermore, we find that the inflation risk premium is time varying and, specifically, negative in the first half (which might be due to either concerns of deflation or low liquidity of the TIPS market), but positive in the second half of the sample.
An Estimate Of The Inflation Risk Premium Using A Three Factor Affine Term Structure Model
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Author : J. Benson Durham
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
An Estimate Of The Inflation Risk Premium Using A Three Factor Affine Term Structure Model written by J. Benson Durham and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Interest rates categories.
Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates
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Author : Peter Hördahl
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates written by Peter Hördahl and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Banks and banking, Central categories.
"This paper estimates the size and dynamics of inflation risk premia in the euro area, based on a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics. Information from both nominal and index-linked yields is used in the empirical analysis. Our results indicate that term premia in the euro area yield curve reflect predominantly real risks, i.e. risks which affect the returns on both nominal and index-linked bonds. On average, inflation risk premia were negligible during the EMU period but occasionally subject to statistically significant fluctuations in 2004-2006. Movements in the raw break-even rate appear to have mostly reflected such variations in inflation risk premia, while long-term inflation expectations have remained remarkably anchored from 1999 to date." - - Abstract.
Estimation Of The Inflation Risk Premium
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Author : Pavol Povala
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Estimation Of The Inflation Risk Premium written by Pavol Povala and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
This master's thesis analyzes the inflation risk premium embodied in the nominal interest rates based on UK government index-linked and nominal securities data in a period of high and volatile inflation, 1985 to 1992, and in a period of low and stable inflation, 1997 to 2007. To recover the inflation risk premium a discrete time term structure model is estimated, using jointly real and nominal yields. Inflation is modeled as an observable factor uncorrelated with latent factors in an affine Gaussian framework. Subsequently, the dynamics of the inflation risk premium and its driving factors are studied in both periods. In the first period, I find the inflation risk premium to be significant most of the time, strongly time-varying and occasionally negative, in the second period the inflation risk premium is only significant at a few points and significantly lower. The variance decomposition of the nominal-to-real yield spread shows that movements in spreads are mostly driven by changes in the inflation risk premium, especially at the long end of the curve.
The Inflation Risk Premium
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Author : Alexander de Roode
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
The Inflation Risk Premium written by Alexander de Roode and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
This paper examines the inflation risk premium in affine term structure models. By estimating empirical distributions for the inflation risk premium using a new Bayesian methodology, we find a wide range of likely estimates. The 95% credibility intervals for 5 year maturity range from about -95 to 88 basis points in the UK and -4 to 119 basis points in the US during the period of 2004-2012. Our results show that affine term structure models are unable to capture the inflation risk premium accurately. To that end, we use a Bayesian methodology to show how the financial crisis in 2008 impacts the uncertainty regarding inflation risk premium. We find a substantial upward shift in the inflation risk premium in the UK while an downward shift in the US. In particular, our 95% credibility intervals shift to -105 to 150 in the UK and -50 to 92 basis points in the US.
Inflation Expectations
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Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2009-12-16
Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Inflation Linked Bonds And Derivatives
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Author : Jessica James
language : en
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Release Date : 2023-01-30
Inflation Linked Bonds And Derivatives written by Jessica James and has been published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-01-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Disruptions in supply chains and consumption patterns triggered by the pandemic together with stimulus packages and the energy crisis have catapulted inflation rates to levels last seen in the 1970s. For inflation markets, it’s hard to understate this sudden and enormous change in fortunes. Understanding the future evolution of consumer prices has become crucial for investors across all asset classes as central banks tailor their policy responses with a view to anchoring inflation expectations. Inflation-Linked Bonds and Derivatives condenses more than 15 years of dedicated coverage of inflation markets. It provides investors, issuers and policy makers with all the relevant tools to navigate inflation markets, starting with the nuts and bolts of consumer price indices, forwards, carry and trading strategies, to advanced topics like seasonality adjustments and the use of inflation options. With its many illustrative graphs and tabulated data, this exceptional book will benefit traders, corporate treasury departments, fixed income investors, insurance companies and pension funds executives.
Bond Pricing And Yield Curve Modeling
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Author : Riccardo Rebonato
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018-06-07
Bond Pricing And Yield Curve Modeling written by Riccardo Rebonato and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-06-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Rebonato provides an authoritative, clear, and up-to-date explanation of the cutting-edge innovations in affine modeling for government bonds, and provides readers with the precise tools to develop their own models. This book combines precise theory with up-to-date empirical evidence to build, with the minimum mathematical sophistication required for the task, a critical understanding of what drives the government bond market.
Inflation News And Euro Area Inflation Expectations
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Author : Juan Angel Garcia
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-07-19
Inflation News And Euro Area Inflation Expectations written by Juan Angel Garcia and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.