The Kondratieff Crisis
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Kondratieff Waves
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Author : Leonid E. Grinin
language : en
Publisher: ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Release Date :
Kondratieff Waves written by Leonid E. Grinin and has been published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель" this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with categories.
Though the researchers of the theory of long and medium-term cycles are certainly worried about the economic situation, they understand that the cyclicity still remains an inevitable attribute of economic development. And Juglar's aphorism that crisis is a consequence of the preceded prosperity is still true. In this third issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ with the subtitle ‘Cycles, Crises, and Forecasts’, we present a number of insight contributions on nature, egularities, and interconnections among cycles of different duration. Some economic cycles may result in a severe economic crisis. The current one shows once again the importance of the study of cyclical dynamics and its peculiarities. Between the 1980s and 1990s the Keynesian receipts were replaced by neoliberal and monetarist ones which seemed to be miraculous as well. The depleted growth was marked with the largest global crisis of 2008 which also showed that within globalization when regulation in the international arena is impossible yet, there recur the signs of Juglar cycles of the 19th and first half of the 20th centuries with their uncontrollable upwards and sharp declines evolving into collapses and panic. This is supported by the fact that for eight years the world has been at the depressive phase. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization. This research has been supported by the Russian Foundation for the Humanities (Project No 16-02-14053 г).
The Kondratieff Waves
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Author : Nathan Mager
language : en
Publisher: Praeger
Release Date : 1987
The Kondratieff Waves written by Nathan Mager and has been published by Praeger this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987 with Business & Economics categories.
A study of the Kondatieff Wave Theory in light of current evidence and experience. The book is aimed at anyone interested in general economic history, economic theory and business cycles, and Kondratieff cultists.
The Kondratiev Cycle
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Author : Michael A. Alexander
language : en
Publisher: iUniverse
Release Date : 2002
The Kondratiev Cycle written by Michael A. Alexander and has been published by iUniverse this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Business & Economics categories.
Michael Alexander extends his analysis of cycles in the stock market to the last seven centuries of Western social, political and economic history. Alexander presents a series of conceptual models for the Kondratiev economic cycle over time and shows how they describe the interaction between economic, social and political cycles. Emphasis is placed on careful empirical demonstration of the reality of these cycles. Alexander then weaves these cycles together showing that they are deeply related to yet another cycle, the generational cycle identified by William Strauss and Neil Howe. This synthesis is used to project political and economic trends over the next twenty years.
The Kondratieff Crisis
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Author : Timothy Korzep
language : en
Publisher: iUniverse
Release Date : 2003-05-26
The Kondratieff Crisis written by Timothy Korzep and has been published by iUniverse this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-05-26 with categories.
Deep in the canyons of Wall Street and against the frenzied pace of today's volatile story-driven trading, a predator seeks revenge against the industry's top investment analysts, killing only during the volatile triple-witching hour, at the close of each quarter's third Friday. If the crime spree isn't stopped soon, the City's tough anti-crime Mayor says he'll close down "the street," an event that could send global markets reeling. Working against time and the market, brusque Lieutenant Al Mason of the 16th precinct - a neophyte when it comes to the fast-track world of securities, equity offers, electronic trading, and mergers and acquisitions - recruits Merrick and Hodges' brilliant analyst Joseph Bartolucci to help him get a bead on the killer. As the analyst and the lieutenant begin to close in on the suspect, Bartolucci realizes that he's now become the next unwitting target for expiration at the triple-witching hour. Will he live to tell Wall Street's biggest story?
Economic Cycles Crises And The Global Periphery
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Author : Leonid Grinin
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-10-25
Economic Cycles Crises And The Global Periphery written by Leonid Grinin and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-25 with Business & Economics categories.
This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations. Among the topics in this ambitious volume: · Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis. · Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape. · How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.“/p> · The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South. · Where the U.S. is likely to stand on the future world stage. Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers, global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.
Kondratieff Waves
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Author : Leonid E. Grinin
language : en
Publisher: ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Release Date :
Kondratieff Waves written by Leonid E. Grinin and has been published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель" this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on with Business & Economics categories.
This fourth issue of the Yearbook ‘Kondratieff Waves’ has the subtitle ‘The Spectrum of Opinions’, as its papers cover a whole range of problems. The Yearbook consists of three sections. The Introduction of this issue is dedicated to Nikolai Kondratieff's ideas which still are important to an analysis of the world economic situation. The first section (Long Waves in the Context of World Economy and Politics) includes five contributions devoted to the study of different spheres from economy to jihadism. The speeches of Kondratieff medal laureates are published in the second section (Kondratieff Medal: Winners' Speeches). It presents a very impressive collection of different views of well-known and young researchers. The last section (Reviews and Notes) includes Antony Harper's re view of Leonid Grinin, Andrey Korotayev and Arno Tausch's monograph ‘Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery’ published by Springer International Publishing. This issue will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide range of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of global economy and globalization.
The Hallmarks Of Crisis
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Author : Arno Tausch
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
The Hallmarks Of Crisis written by Arno Tausch and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
Our analysis, based on a variety of standard econometric techniques, aims to be a fairly comprehensive test of the hypotheses about long cycles, associated with the name of Kondratiev/Kondratieff. Our work tries to link the issue of long cycles with the issue of economic convergence and divergence in the world system, because there are very strong cyclical ups and downs of relative convergence in the world system, observable not just in the “national” growth rates and “national” economic cycles. Already the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu, who lived from August 7, 1896 to December 20, 1974, and who was a great admirer of Kondratiev/Kondratieff, hinted at this connection. His most well-known tribute to Kondratiev/Kondratieff (Akamatsu, 1961) specifically links the rise and decline of the global peripheries to the larger Kondratiev/Kondratieff cycle. His contribution, which is hardly ever mentioned nowadays in the framework of K-cycle research, is the starting point of our analysis. In fact, these “Akamatsu cycles”, analyzed in this work, are even stronger and seem to be more devastating than the “national Kondratiev/Kondratieff waves” and world systemic waves themselves, leading to the discovery of what might be even termed a “double-Tsunami wave structure”.Both our re-analysis of world industrial production growth data since 1741 as well as the global conflict data since 1495, presented in this article, cautiously support the earlier contentions of world system research with evidence, tested by spectral analysis and auto-correlation analysis. Using the well-known and now updated Maddison data base, Kondratiev/Kondratieff cycles of around 60 years duration at a nation state level are most clearly visible in Argentina, Canada, and Russia, with evidence on the existence of longer cycles of more than 35 years also in Belgium; Chile; Greece; Netherlands; India; New Zealand; Spain; and USA; while for the other countries of the Maddison data set, earlier negative spectral density analysis results reported in the ample literature surveyed in this article could not be falsified. By contrast, the evidence about strong long term cycles of convergence seems to be very convincing.Future research is recommended to realize that convergence processes in most nations of the world are discontinuous and of a cyclical nature, thus supporting the pessimism inherent in the writings by the world systems scholar Giovanni Arrighi on the subject.
Kondratieff Waves Dimensions And Prospects At The Dawn Of The 21st Century
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Author : Leonid Grinin
language : en
Publisher: ООО "Издательство "Учитель"
Release Date : 2012-05-30
Kondratieff Waves Dimensions And Prospects At The Dawn Of The 21st Century written by Leonid Grinin and has been published by ООО "Издательство "Учитель" this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-05-30 with categories.
Kondratieff waves constitute a sort of mystery that has been haunting economic and social researchers for almost a century. Why do we observe such regularity in the long-term behavior of economic and non-economic indicators? Why in certain periods do we observe prolonged upswings, whereas in other periods – notwithstanding all the enormous efforts of interested macroeconomic actors – economic development is accompanied by prolonged depressions? What gets out of order in social and economic mechanisms? Since the seminal works published by Kondratieff, a number of outstanding researchers have made significant contributions to our understanding of the possible factors affecting and provoking long-term fluctuations of human economic affairs. On the other hand, it has become more and more clear that K-waves influence many social-related processes. However, nobody appears to have found yet an entirely satisfactory solution of ‘Kondratieff's mystery’, and it continues to attract researchers. That is why we have decided to try to unite the forces of such researchers around the new almanac. This first issue offers a wide panorama of views on the Kondratieff waves' phenomenon; here one can also find information on Kondratieff’s life and works. This edition will be useful for economists, social scientists, as well as for a wide circle of those interested in the problems of the past, present, and future of world economics and globalization.
The Hallmark Of Crisis
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Author : Arno Tausch
language : en
Publisher: Ehvacademicpress
Release Date : 2014-04-25
The Hallmark Of Crisis written by Arno Tausch and has been published by Ehvacademicpress this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-25 with categories.
This analysis, based on a variety of standard econometric techniques, aims to be a fairly comprehensive test of the hypotheses about long cycles, associated With the name of Kondratiev/Kondratieff. Our work tries to link the issue of long cycles with the issue of economic convergence and divergence in the World system, because there are very strong cyclical ups and downs of relative convergence in the world system, observable not just in the "national" growth rates and "nati0nal" economic cycles. Already the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu, Who lived from August 7, 1896 to December 20, 1974, and who was a great admirer of Kondratiev/Kondratieff, hinted at this connection. His most well-known tribute to Kondratiev/Kondratieff (Akamatsu, 1961) speci cally links the rise and decline of the global peripheries to the larger Kondratiev/Kondratieff cycle. His contribution, which is hardly ever mentioned nowadays in the framework of K-cycle research, is the starting point of our analysis. In fact, these "Akamatsu cycles," analyzed in this Work, are even stronger and seem to be more devastating than the "national Kondratiev/Kondratieff waves" and world systemic waves themselves, leading to the discovery of what might be even tenned a "double-Tsunami wave structure." Both our re-analysis of world industrial production growth data since 1741 as Well as the global con ict data since 1495, presented in this article, cautiously support the earlier contentions of World system research With evidence, tested by spectral analysis and auto-correlation analysis.
Innovation Patterns In Crisis And Prosperity
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Author : A. Kleinknecht
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 1987-02-09
Innovation Patterns In Crisis And Prosperity written by A. Kleinknecht and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987-02-09 with Business & Economics categories.
With the economic problems facing Western economics during the last decade, theories about an alleged forty-five to sixty years' pulsation in economic life (the Kondratieff-Schumpeter cycle) have experienced a remarkable renaissance. Based on a new econometric test method, the author argues that long waves can be identified not only in price series but also in the aggregate output of a number of key industrialized countries. The author's own research corroborates Schumpeter's hypothesis that, far from being caused by a flash of genius, radical innovations occur in clusters, interacting with economic fluctuations and social change.
