The Role Of Other Information In Analysts Forecasts In Understanding Stock Return Volatility
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The Role Of Other Information In Analysts Forecasts In Understanding Stock Return Volatility
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Author : Yaowen Shan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
The Role Of Other Information In Analysts Forecasts In Understanding Stock Return Volatility written by Yaowen Shan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
This study proposes and validates “other information” in analysts' forecasts as a legitimate proxy for future cash flows, and examines its incremental role in explaining stock return volatility. We suggest that “other information” contains information about fundamentals beyond that reflected in current financial statements, and reflects firms' fundamentals on a more timely basis than dividends or earnings. The link between “other information” and volatility can be derived from a combination of the accounting version of the Campbell-Shiller model (Campbell and Shiller 1988a, 1988b; Vuolteenaho 2002) and Ohlson's (1995) linear information dynamics. Using standardized regressions we find volatility increases when current “other information” is more uncertain, and increases more in response to unfavorable news compared to favorable news. Variance decomposition analysis shows that the variance contribution of “other information” dominates that of expected-return news. The incremental role of “other information” is at least half of the effect of earnings in explaining future volatility. The results are valid for measures of both systematic and idiosyncratic volatility, and are more pronounced for firms with poor information environments. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including “other information” as an additional cash-flow proxy in future studies of stock prices and volatility.
The Role Of Non Accounting Information In Understanding Stock Return Volatility
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Author : Yaowen Shan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
The Role Of Non Accounting Information In Understanding Stock Return Volatility written by Yaowen Shan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.
Uncertainty about firms' future payoffs is the dominant factor in explaining stock return volatility at the firm level. However, summary financial statement numbers such as earnings only provide a limited measure of expected payoffs, as they do not reflect firms' fundamentals on a timely basis. We demonstrate theoretically and empirically that information about firms' fundamentals contained in analysts' forecasts (which we label as quot;non-accounting informationquot;) is expected to influence future stock return volatility. When combined with Ohlson's (1995) linear information dynamics, the accounting version of the Campbell-Shiller model (Campbell and Shiller 1988a, 1988b; Vuolteenaho 2002) implies that if current non-accounting information is more uncertain, then future stock returns are expected to be more volatile. Our empirical evidence supports the theoretical predictions, and the results are valid for measures of both systematic and idiosyncratic volatility. Additional analysis yields some evidence that both favourable and unfavourable news from non-accounting information increases future stock return volatility. Overall, our results highlight the relevance of information in analysts' forecasts beyond what is contained in the current financial statements.
Analysts Forecasts And Future Stock Return Volatility
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Author : Yaowen Shan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Analysts Forecasts And Future Stock Return Volatility written by Yaowen Shan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Stock price forecasting categories.
Forecasting Volatility In The Financial Markets
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Author : John L. Knight
language : en
Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann
Release Date : 2002
Forecasting Volatility In The Financial Markets written by John L. Knight and has been published by Butterworth-Heinemann this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Business & Economics categories.
This text assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting edge modeling and forecasting techniques. It then uses a technical survey to explain the different ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return.
Financial Analysts And Information Processing On Financial Markets
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Author : Jan-Philipp Matthewes
language : en
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Release Date : 2015-01-28
Financial Analysts And Information Processing On Financial Markets written by Jan-Philipp Matthewes and has been published by BoD – Books on Demand this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-28 with Law categories.
Financial analysts play an ambivalent role on financial markets: On the one hand investors and the media frequently follow their advice, on the other hand they are regularly discredited when their forecasts or recommendations prove to be erroneous. This cumulative thesis explores the informational content of financial analysts’ forecasts for investors by addressing three specific topics: Consensus size as a rudimentary investment signal, the association of analysts’ target prices with business sentiment, and the consistency of analysts’ different investment signals in the context of the 2008 financial crisis. Overall, the thesis provides additional evidence that investors can profit from analysts’ forecasts and recommendations. However, it is also shown that investors need to be very selective about which signal to rely on and in which context to use these because analysts’ investment signals can also be heavily biased and erroneous. About the author: Jan-Philipp Matthewes studied ‘Economics’ at the University of Cologne, Germany, and holds a Dean’s Award from the Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences. His research focus on financial analysts evolved while working in equity research at a leading German bank. The PhD-thesis was supervised by Prof. Dr. Martin Wallmeier, Finance and Accounting, at the University of Fribourg, Switzerland. Since 2013 Jan-Philipp Matthewes is the managing director of the boutique private equity firm ‘Matthewes Capital Invest GmbH’.
Financial Analysts Forecasts And Stock Recommendations
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Author : Sundaresh Ramnath
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Release Date : 2008
Financial Analysts Forecasts And Stock Recommendations written by Sundaresh Ramnath and has been published by Now Publishers Inc this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Business & Economics categories.
Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations reviews research related to the role of financial analysts in the allocation of resources in capital markets. The authors provide an organized look at the literature, with particular attention to important questions that remain open for further research. They focus research related to analysts' decision processes and the usefulness of their forecasts and stock recommendations. Some of the major surveys were published in the early 1990's and since then no less than 250 papers related to financial analysts have appeared in the nine major research journals that we used to launch our review of the literature. The research has evolved from descriptions of the statistical properties of analysts' forecasts to investigations of the incentives and decision processes that give rise to those properties. However, in spite of this broader focus, much of analysts' decision processes and the market's mechanism of drawing a useful consensus from the combination of individual analysts' decisions remain hidden in a black box. What do we know about the relevant valuation metrics and the mechanism by which analysts and investors translate forecasts into present equity values? What do we know about the heuristics relied upon by analysts and the market and the appropriateness of their use? Financial Analysts' Forecasts and Stock Recommendations examines these and other questions and concludes by highlighting area for future research.
Analyst Forecast Dispersion And Future Stock Return Volatility
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Author : Madhu Kalimipalli
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Analyst Forecast Dispersion And Future Stock Return Volatility written by Madhu Kalimipalli and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
In this paper, we examine the relationship between analysts' forecast dispersion and future stock return volatility using monthly data for a cross section of 160 US firms from 1981 to 1996. We find that there is a strong and positive relationship between analysts' forecast dispersion and future return volatility. The dispersion measure has incremental information content even after accounting for market volatility. These results are robust across sub-sample periods and sub-samples based on based on number of analysts following a firm, forecast dispersion and market capitalization. There is also a strong seasonal relationship between the dispersion measure and future volatility. The importance of dispersion on future return volatility is high in January and the first few months of the year, and declines thereafter. Such information content of analysts' earnings forecast dispersion is of great importance for active portfolio management, option pricing and arbitrage trading strategies.
Three Essays On Financial Analysts Stock Price Forecasts
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Author : Quoc Tuan Quoc Ho
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Three Essays On Financial Analysts Stock Price Forecasts written by Quoc Tuan Quoc Ho and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
In this thesis, I study three aspects of sell-side analysts' stock price forecasts, henceforth target prices: analyst teams' target price forecast characteristics, analysts' use of information to revise target prices, and determinants of target price disagreement between analysts. The first essay studies the target price forecast performance of team analysts in the UK and finds that teams issue timelier but not less accurate target prices. Unlike evidence from previous studies, my findings suggest that analyst teamwork may improve forecast timeliness without sacrificing forecast accuracy. However, market reactions to team target price revisions are not significantly different from those to individual analyst target price revisions, suggesting that although target prices issued by analyst teams are timelier and not less accurate than those of individual analysts, investors do not consider analyst team target prices more informative. I conjecture that analysts may work in teams to meet the demand to cover more companies while maintaining the quality of research by individual team members rather than to issue more informative reports. In the second essay, I study how analysts revise their target prices in response to new information implicit in recent market returns, stock excess returns and other analysts' target price revisions. The results suggest that analysts' target price revisions are significantly influenced by market returns, stock excess return and other analysts' target price revisions. I also find that the correlation between target price revisions and stock excess returns is significantly higher when the news implicit in these returns is bad rather than good. I conjecture that analysts discover more bad news from the information in stock excess returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it becomes inevitable, while they disclose good news early. Using a new measure of bad to good news concentration, I show that the asymmetric responsiveness of target price revisions to positive and negative stock excess returns is significant for firms with the highest concentration of bad news but is insignificant for firms with the lowest concentration of bad news. I argue that firms with the highest concentration of bad news are more likely to withhold and accumulate bad news. The findings, therefore, support my hypothesis that analysts discover more bad news than good news from stock returns because firms tend to withhold bad news, disclosing it only when it is inevitable. The third essay examines the determinants of analyst target price disagreement. I find that while disagreement in short-term earnings and in long-term earnings growth forecasts are significant determinants, recent 12-month idiosyncratic return volatility has the strongest explanatory power for target price disagreement. The findings suggest that target price disagreement is driven not only by analyst disagreement about short-term earnings and long-term earnings growth, but also by differences in analysts' opinions about the impact of recent firm-specific events on value drivers beyond short-term future earnings and long-term growth, which are eventually reflected in past idiosyncratic return volatility.
Understanding Analysts Use And Under Use Of Stock Returns And Other Analysts Forecasts When Forecasting Earnings
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Author : Michael B. Clement
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Understanding Analysts Use And Under Use Of Stock Returns And Other Analysts Forecasts When Forecasting Earnings written by Michael B. Clement and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
In this study, we examine how analysts are affected by the public actions of investors and other analysts by closely examining how analysts revise their earnings forecasts after an earnings announcement. In particular, we hypothesize that analysts observe the actions of investors and other analysts in order to more accurately forecast earnings and have the expertise to determine when these actions are most informative about future earnings. Consistent with our hypotheses, we find that analysts revise their earnings forecasts more strongly in response to returns and other analysts' revisions when these signals are more informative about future earnings changes. We also find that, consistent with analysts being conservative while facing uncertain information, underreactions are strongest (not weakest) when analysts are responding most strongly to these signals (i.e., when the signals are most informative). Lastly, we find that analysts who are most sensitive to the informativeness of others' actions are relatively more accurate in forecasting earnings, suggesting that the ability to extract information from the actions of others serves as a source of expertise for at least some analysts.
The Informational Role Of Sell Side Analysts Forecast Horizon
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Author : Xuan Wang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
The Informational Role Of Sell Side Analysts Forecast Horizon written by Xuan Wang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with Electronic dissertations categories.
This dissertation explores the informational role of sell-side analysts' change in forecasting horizon. I find that portfolios formed by buying stocks with large increase in analyst horizon and shorting stocks with large decrease in analyst horizon generate superior future return. Horizon change has information incremental to analyst earnings forecast and recommendation revisions, as well as firm fundamentals. Large increase in horizon mainly drives the result. I find that analysts who contribute to strong horizon increase are associated with higher forecast accuracy. This increase is likely associated with the career concerns of inexperienced analysts. The return predictability associated with analyst forecast horizon change exists in the information environment of high liquidity and low volatility, at the times when analyst forecasts are the most accurate. Moreover, analyst forecast horizon is partially related to analysts' profitability prediction and firm risk assessment, although the horizon change, the component predictable by firm fundamentals notwithstanding, is still able to predict return in the short-run. Overall, the findings reported in this dissertation support the view that sell-side analysts are important rational-information providers in the financial industry.