Three Essays In Commodity Price Dynamics
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Three Essays In Commodity Price Dynamics
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Author : Amal Dabbous
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2015
Three Essays In Commodity Price Dynamics written by Amal Dabbous and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015 with categories.
This thesis consists of three essays in commodity price dynamics. In the first essay, we embed a staggered price feature into the speculative storage model of Deaton and Laroque (1996). Intermediate goods inventory speculators are added as an additional source of intertemporal linkage which helps us to replicate the stylized facts of the observed commodity price dynamics. The staggered pricing mechanism adopted in this paper can be viewed as a parsimonious way of approximating various types of frictions that increase the degree of persistence in the first two conditional moments of commodity prices. The structural parameters of our model are estimated by simulated method of moments using actual prices for four agricultural commodities. Simulated data are then employed to assess the effects of our staggered price approach on the time series properties of commodity prices. Our results lend empirical support to the possibility of staggered prices. The second essay investigates the determinants of the percentage change in commodity prices. We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model technique and conduct the variance decomposition for the percentage change in spot commodity prices to 6 agricultural commodities. The model explains the percentage change in spot commodity prices in terms of the expected present discounted values of interest rate, yield spread, open interest and convenience yield. Empirical results indicate that the model is successful in capturing a large proportion of the variability in the 6 agricultural commodity prices. Moreover, we show that yield spread and open interest help predicting changes in commodity prices. Finally, the third essay evaluates different hedging strategies for eleven commodities. In addition to the traditional regression hedge ratio model (OLS) and the vector error correction model (VECM), we estimate dynamic hedge ratios using the conventional dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) of Engle (2002) and the diagonal BEKK model (DBEKK) of Engle and Kroner (1995). Moreover, we propose two more advanced models, the DCC model and the DBEKK model that will account for the impact of the growth rate of open interest on market’s volatility and co-movements of commodity spot and futures returns. The empirical analysis shows that adding the growth rate of open interest improves the in-sample hedging effectiveness of the DCC model. Furthermore, the out-of-sample hedging exercise empirical results show that static models present the best out-of-sample hedging performance for 5 of the commodities. The DCC model presents the smallest basis variance for 4 of the commodities. The DBEKK model with the growth rate of open interest performs the best in terms of the basis variance reduction for corn and wheat. Our out-of-sample empirical findings provide important implications for futures hedging and highlight the fact that the use of static models to determine the optimal hedge ratio could be more effective than the use of dynamic hedge ratio models.
Bitcoin Cross Market Price Dynamics
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Author : Jinqiang Ye
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Bitcoin Cross Market Price Dynamics written by Jinqiang Ye and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
Essays On Price Dispersion And Dynamic Pricing
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Author : Ching-jen Sun
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Essays On Price Dispersion And Dynamic Pricing written by Ching-jen Sun and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Prices categories.
Abstract: This dissertation develops three essays on dynamic pricing to investigate two important topics in industrial organization: price dispersion and price discrimination. The first essay considers a stylized model of dynamic price competition in which each seller sells one unit of a homogeneous commodity by posting prices in every period to maximize the expected profits with discounting. A random number of buyers come to the market in each period. Each buyer demands at most one unit of the good, and they all have a common reservation price. They know all prices posted by all firms in the market; hence search is costless. I show that when there is a positive probability of excess demand, the model has a unique (symmetric) mixed-strategy equilibrium. In this equilibrium, each seller posts a price in every period according to a non-degenerate distribution, which is determined by the number of sellers remaining in the market in that period. Sellers play mixed strategies as they are indifferent between selling sooner at a lower price and waiting to sell at a higher price later. Thus, price dispersion not only exists in every period among firms, but also persists over time. In the second essay, I consider a monopolist who can sell vertically differentiated products over two periods to heterogeneous consumers. Consumers each demand one unit of the product in each period. In the second period, consumers are sorted into different segments according to their first-period choice, and the monopolist can offer different menus of contracts to different segments. In this way, the monopolist can price discriminate consumers not only by product quality, but also by purchase history. I fully characterize the monopolist's optimal pricing strategy when the type space is discrete and a simple condition is given to determine whether the monopolist should price discriminate consumers by product quality in the first period. When the consumers' type space is a continuum, I show that there is no fully separating equilibrium, and some properties of the optimal menu of contracts (price-quality pairs) are characterized within the class of partition PBE (Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium). The monopolist will offer only one quality in the first period when the social surplus function is log submodular or the firm and consumers are patient. If it is optimal for the firm to offer only one quality in the first period, the optimal market coverage in the first period is smaller than that in the static model. Furthermore, in equilibrium there are some high-type consumers choosing to downgrade the product in the second period, a phenomenon that has never been addressed in the literature. In the second essay, when the consumers' type space is a continuum, the analysis of the optimal menu of contracts is restricted within the class of partition PBE. The third essay provides a justification for this qualification. I ask whether an optimal menu of contracts can induce a non-partition continuation equilibrium by scrutinizing the example constructed by Laffont and Tirole (1988). They construct a non-partition continuation equilibrium for a given first-period menu of incentive contracts and conjecture that this continuation equilibrium need not be suboptimal for the whole game under small uncertainty. I construct two first-period incentive schemes leading to a partition continuation equilibrium and show that, regardless of the extent of uncertainty, their non-partition continuation equilibrium generates a smaller payoff than one of two partition continuation equilibria for the principal. In this sense, Laffont and Tirole's menu of contracts, giving rise to a non-partition continuation equilibrium, is not optimal. I provide an intuition behind this result, hoping to shed light on the problem of dynamic contracting without commitment.
Commodity Price Dynamics
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Author : Craig Pirrong
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2011-10-31
Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Three Essays In Commodity Futures Markets
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Three Essays In Commodity Futures Markets written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Three Essays In International Economics
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Author : Alan Glen Isaac
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1986
Three Essays In International Economics written by Alan Glen Isaac and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1986 with categories.
Three Essays On Volatility And Information Content Of Futures Markets
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Author : Pavel Teterin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018
Three Essays On Volatility And Information Content Of Futures Markets written by Pavel Teterin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with Electronic dissertations categories.
This dissertation includes three essays on volatility and information content of futures markets. This work gives new insight into the structural changes in volatility, the information content of global interest rate futures, and the time-series behavior of the volatility term structure. The first essay examines structural volatility shifts U.S. crude oil and corn futures markets. In trying to capture the interrelations present in the two markets, we take seriously the importance of properly modelling smooth structural shifts. We incorporate trigonometric functions into a multivariate GARCH model of crude and corn futures prices to obtain the empirical volatility response functions and the time-varying correlation coefficient. Although both short-term and long-term futures exhibit shifts in the mean and volatility, volatility shifts do not manifest themselves in the same manner for different maturities. In the second essay, we investigate the term structure of interest rate futures in the US, Eurozone, United Kingdom, and Switzerland and empirically document five unique results. First, implied USD futures rates contain significantly different information compared to USD spot rates. Second, the four interest rate futures contracts contain similar information that is driven by one common component. Third, implied futures rates contain more information regarding future rate changes than return premiums. Fourth, information shifts are associated with macroeconomic conditions and central bank policies. Finally, significant information shifts occurred during the 2013-2015 time frame, which were greater than those of the great recessionary period of 2008-2009. The third essay focuses on the Samuelson hypothesis, a proposition that futures volatility declines with maturity. We study the strength of the Samuelson effect over time in ten most actively traded U.S. commodity futures. Capturing the dynamics of the futures volatility term structure with three factors, we show that in most markets the slope factor is strongly negative in certain periods and only weakly or not at all negative in other periods. Consistent with the linkage between carry arbitrage and the Samuelson hypothesis, we find that high inventory levels correspond to a flatter volatility term structure. We also find that a flatter volatility term structure corresponds to lower absolute futures term premiums.
Three Essays On Retail Price Dynamics
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Author : Andres Elberg
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Three Essays On Retail Price Dynamics written by Andres Elberg and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
This dissertation consists of three essays on the dynamics of retail prices. The first chapter uses a novel data set of weekly-sampled store-level retail prices for narrowly defined goods observed across 12 cities in Mexico to study the relative magnitude of aggregation biases in estimates of convergence to the Law of One Price (LOP). I find that temporal aggregation can severely bias estimates of persistence in relative prices. Both panel estimations of higher-order autoregressive processes and Monte Carlo experiments suggest that using quarterly aggregated data (from weekly-sampled data) can overestimate the half-life of deviations from the Law of One Price (LOP) by a factor of 4. I do not find evidence that pooling across goods with heterogeneous dynamics biases persistence estimates. The analysis also suggests that intercity prices converge rapidly to the LOP in an absolute sense (the median half-life is estimated at 3 weeks) and the existence of only a weak association between price gaps across cities and physical distance. The second chapter studies patterns of retail price adjustment at the store level using a unique scanner data set of weekly retail prices, quantities sold and wholesale costs for a cross-section of retailers in Chile. In line with evidence reported for the U.S. (Eichenbaum, Jaimovich and Rebelo, 2010; Klenow and Malin, 2010), posted prices tend to revolve around more persistent reference prices. The implied duration of reference prices is estimated at 2-3 quarters versus 3-4 weeks in the case of posted prices. I find strong evidence that reference prices respond to retailer-level shocks. Comovement in the reference price of a given barcode across retailers is found to be significantly larger for stores belonging to the same retail chain than for stores that belong to different retail chains. Furthermore, most of the variation in the frequency of reference price adjustment is explained by "chain effects". Evidence on the synchronization of price changes suggests that price changes tend to be staggered across stores belonging to different retail chains but synchronized within chains. The third chapter uses a scanner dataset including weekly prices and costs from a large retailer in Chile to study the relationship between price rigidities and intra-national deviations from the law of one price (LOP). I find that, controlling for transportation costs (proxied by distance), more flexible prices are associated with a larger volatility of deviations from the LOP. The effect is econominally non-negligible and holds for both retail- and wholesale-level prices. The distance equivalent of a 0.01 change in the frequency of retail (wholesale) price change is estimated at 370 (294) kilometers.
Three Essays On Observable Covariates In Option Pricing
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Author : Yoontae Jeon
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Three Essays On Observable Covariates In Option Pricing written by Yoontae Jeon and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with categories.
This dissertation contains three essays on observable covariates in option pricing. In the first essay, I propose firm-specific public news arrival from Factiva database as an observable covariate in equity options market and study how the public news arrival is priced. I first establish the empirical relationship between the firm-specific public news arrival and jumps in individual equity returns. Subsequently, I build a continuous-time stochastic volatility jump diffusion model where news arrivals driving the jump dynamics. When estimated on equity options data for 20 individual firms, the premia placed on jump frequency and size turn out to be consistent with the theories highlighting both positive and negative effects of public news arrival. The second essay, based on a joint work with Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou and Chayawat Ornthanalai, studies how the stock market illiquidity affects the market crash risk. Our empirical approach is to estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability where stock market illiquidity is used as an observable covariate driving the crash probability. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model. This finding suggests that the relationship between variance and jump risk found in the literature is largely due to their common exposure to market illiquidity. Our study highlights the importance of equity market frictions in index return dynamics and explains why prior studies find that crash risk increases with market uncertainty level. The third essay, based on a joint work with Peter Christoffersen and Bruno Feunou, proposes the realized jump variation measure constructed from the intraday S returns data as an observable covariate that helps pricing of index options. The volatility and jump intensity dynamics in the model are directly driven by model-free empirical measures of diffusive volatility and jump variation. Because the empirical measures are observed in discrete intervals, our option valuation model is cast in discrete time, allowing for straightforward filtering and estimation of the model. When estimated on S index options and returns the new model performs well compared with standard benchmarks.
Three Essays In Commodity Futures And Options Price Performance
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Author : Marin Boz̆ić
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Three Essays In Commodity Futures And Options Price Performance written by Marin Boz̆ić and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.