Three Essays On Economic Growth And Real Exchange Rate
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Three Essays On Economic Growth And Real Exchange Rate
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Author : Sung Jin Kang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Three Essays On Economic Growth And Real Exchange Rate written by Sung Jin Kang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Developing countries categories.
Real Exchange Rates And Foreign Assets
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Author : Marcel Schroder
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Real Exchange Rates And Foreign Assets written by Marcel Schroder and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
This thesis consists of three self-contained papers, which contribute to the debates surrounding global imbalances and financial globalization. The papers are unified by their featuring of foreign assets and real exchange rates (RERs) as the central themes. Following the introductory chapter, the first paper revisits the growth impact of RER distortions. The Washington Consensus emphasizes the economic costs of RER misalignment. However, a sizable recent empirical literature finds that undervalued RERs help countries achieve faster economic growth. The study shows that these findings are driven by inappropriate homogeneity assumptions imposed on long-run RER behavior across countries and/or misspecification of the growth equation. When these problems are redressed, the empirical results for a sample of 63 developing countries over the period 1970-2007 suggest that misalignment of the RER, in either direction from the level consistent with external and internal equilibrium reduces economic growth. However, deviations from Balassa-Samuelson adjusted purchasing power parity do not seem to affect growth. The RER should thus be consistent with external and internal balance, irrespective of the purchasing power parity benchmark. The second paper is motivated by the popular view that the surge in China's foreign exchange reserves is due to a distortionary exchange rate policy aimed at keeping the RER undervalued in order to support export-led growth. It undertakes an in-depth empirical investigation to quantify how much "mercantilist" and "precautionary" motives have contributed to the reserve build-up in China during the period 1998Q4-2011Q4. A substantial problem is that theory is consistent with employing two vastly differing approaches to defining and estimating the role of mercantilist reserve accumulation. A priori, either method could generate misleading results. The study shows, however, that the distinction between the two approaches is immaterial in China's case. The results suggest that mercantilism accounts for less than 10 percent of the reserve accumulation. Precautionary motives and other factors seem to be the dominant determinants of the surge in China's international reserves. The third paper studies the macroeconomic impact of valuation effects (changes in net external assets of a country arising from movements in exchange rates or asset returns). In theory, valuation effects are an important channel of international risk sharing through their facilitation of external adjustment. However, the effects can also be economically destabilizing in the presence of frictions in the international financial system. Despite the growing significance of valuation effects in an era of financial globalization, the nature and extent of their macroeconomic effect has not yet been systematically examined, especially in relation to emerging market economies (EMEs). The study examines the macroeconomic impact of valuation effects for 53 countries over 1980-2010. Valuation effects seem to operate as a risk sharing channel in high income countries. For EMEs the results depend on how valuation effects correlate with domestic consumption growth. There is weak evidence that valuation effects act as a risk sharing channel only if the correlation is negative, and are destabilizing otherwise. In the latter case, the welfare loss may well exceed one percent of permanent consumption.
Three Essays In International Economics
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Author : Maxwell Oteng
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
Three Essays In International Economics written by Maxwell Oteng and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Africa categories.
Three Essays On Applied Macroeconomics
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Author : Hubert Scarlett
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Three Essays On Applied Macroeconomics written by Hubert Scarlett and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
This thesis consists of three essays that are linked by thread of international economics. The first essay uses a panel vector autoregressive model to study the transmission of economic shocks from the United States (U.S.) to Caribbean economies. Unlike prior studies, this analysis includes remittance and tourism as additional channels of transmission. The results suggest that shutting down the remittance and tourism channels lower the effect of a U.S. economic shock on real GDP. Further, the inclusion of these two channels unearth measurement bias previously attributed to the traditional channels. As such, Caribbean governments should consider these two additional channels when designing countercyclical policies. The second essay investigates if evidence in favour of the J-curve phenomenon depends on a country's trading partner and, if there is any cross-country evidence of the J-curve. The assessment introduces asymmetric real exchange rate (RER) effects on bilateral trade balance, within an autoregressive distributed lag framework. Introducing asymmetric effects provide greater evidence supporting the J-curve relative to the linear framework, particularly in the annual assessment, where capturing delay in the J-curve is possible. The finding is consistent regardless of the measure of RER or trading partner considered. Unlike the quarterly panel analysis, support for the J-curve is evident in the annual panel but, specific to the country group and RER measure. The results have implications for designing bilateral trade policy if, exchange rate is considered a policy tool to improve trade balance over time. In the final essay, a panel of 45 Emerging Markets and Developing Economies is used to examine if remittances, foreign aid and institutions influence FDI's effect on economic growth. The results show that the positive effect of FDI on growth as well as on the growth of agriculture and manufacturing value added (VAD) diminishes as the level of institutions increases. The findings also indicate that higher remittances only enhance the marginal effect of FDI in the growth of agriculture VAD. Additionally, FDI's effect on the growth process is independent of foreign aid and should be treated as such.
Three Essays In International Economics
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Author : Ling Huang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2001
Three Essays In International Economics written by Ling Huang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with categories.
Three Essays On The Macroeconomic Effects Of International Capital Flows
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Author : Shibeshi Ghebre Kahsay
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2004
Three Essays On The Macroeconomic Effects Of International Capital Flows written by Shibeshi Ghebre Kahsay and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004 with Capital movements categories.
Essays In International Money And Finance
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Author : James R Lothian
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2017-06-29
Essays In International Money And Finance written by James R Lothian and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-06-29 with Business & Economics categories.
The aim of the book is to make the author's scholarly research in the areas of international finance and monetary economics easily accessible to other researchers and students. The articles included in the book span a wide range. The topics include the behavior of the three key relations in international finance, purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and real interest rate equality, the relation between money and other key economic variables, financial globalization and the transmission of economic disturbances internationally.
Essays On Financial And International Economics
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Author : Xiaojing Su
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Essays On Financial And International Economics written by Xiaojing Su and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
This dissertation is comprised of three essays. Chapter II investigates the dynamic relationship between stock returns and volume. I develop a new framework in which investors maximize their expected utility by optimally placing limit orders in the market. Because these limit orders differ in prices and quantities, transactions may occur at different prices during each trading period, and the instantaneous demand may not equal the instantaneous supply. Multiple trading periods may be necessary for stocks to reach equilibrium. A Mini-Exchange platform has been developed to simulate the trading process of the model. One outcome from the simulation suggests that, during periods of price adjustment, relatively low trading volume predicts a large absolute value change in future price. Empirical estimation by Zou (2007) shows that relatively low past trading volume indicates a relatively large price movement in the future. Her finding is consistent with the prediction of the model. In Chapter III, I measure the out-of-sample stock return predictability based on past price information. In particular, I use several nonlinear models to address the possible nonlinearity-in-mean predictability; I also adopt economic criteria, in addition to commonly used statistical criteria, to evaluate the forecasting performance. For thirteen major international stock markets, growth stocks appear to be more predictable than the general stock markets and value stocks, especially when evaluated with economic criteria. This novel finding is robust to a number of robustness checks. Overall, my results suggest that stock prices do not follow a random walk. Chapter IV in this dissertation turns to the effect of an aging problem in China on the real exchange rate of China. China is undergoing significant demographic changes as its population is aging and will become the biggest country that ages before getting rich. In this chapter, I extend the small open economy model with demographics and life-cycle dynamics (Faruqee 2002) by including a non-tradable sector. The simulation results show that a real appreciation exists in the Chinese exchange rate in the future. Another important finding is that the GDP per capita and consumption per capita will be lower than the case without the aging problem.
Essays In The Fundamental Theory Of Monetary Economics And Macroeconomics
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Author : John Smithin
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
Release Date : 2013-06-27
Essays In The Fundamental Theory Of Monetary Economics And Macroeconomics written by John Smithin and has been published by World Scientific Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-27 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides a comprehensive overview, in the form of eight long essays, of the evolution of monetary theory over the three-quarters of century, from the time of Keynes to the present day. The essays are originally based on lecture notes from a graduate course on Advanced Monetary Economics offered at York University, Toronto, written in the style of academic papers. The essays are mathematical in method — but also take a historical perspective, tracing the evolution of monetary thought through the Keynesian model, the monetarist model, new classical model, etc, up to and including the neo-Wickesellian models of the early 21st century. The book will be an essential resource for both graduate and advanced undergraduate students in economics, as well as for individual researchers seeking basic information on the theoretical background of contemporary debates.
Shadows Of History
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Author : Douglas L. Campbell
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Shadows Of History written by Douglas L. Campbell and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
This dissertation is comprised of one essay focusing on the measurement of real exchange rate indexes, three chapters on the various impacts of real exchange rate movements on the economy, two essays on the impact of fixed exchange rate regimes on trade, one essay on the long-run impact of trade shocks, and a final chapter on the diffusion of technology along geographic lines. The common theme is that these essays collectively paint a picture of the world in which history casts surprisingly long shadows, as current economic relationships -- trade, employment, productivity, and output -- are the product of history. In the first essay, coauthored with Ju Hyun Pyun, we propose several new methods of computing real exchange rate indices which fix a subtle, but important, index numbers problem apparent in widely-used series created by the Federal Reserve and the IMF, and also control for productivity. Extending one of these indexes historically for the US back to 1820, we uncover a new empirical fact -- that in 2002, the US price level had been higher relative to trading partners than at any time since the worst year of the Great Depression. The next three chapters essay address the issue of the economic impact of RER movements. To identify a causal impact of RER movements on manufacturing, I compare the US experience in the early 2000s to the 1980s, when large US fiscal deficits led to a sharp appreciation in the dollar, and to Canada's experience in mid-2000s, when high oil prices and a falling US dollar led to an equally sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar. I use disaggregated sectoral data and a difference-in-difference methodology, finding that an appreciation in relative unit labor costs for the lead to disproportionate declines in employment, productivity and output for both the US and Canada. In addition, I find that the impact of a temporary shock to real exchange rates is surprisingly long-lived. In the second of these chapters, I find scant evidence for an impact of adverse trade shocks on inquality in manufacturing, and in the third, I speculate that the collapse in manufacturing caused by tectonic shifts in relative prices are a likely cause of the "secular stagnation'' experienced in the US since 2000. In the fifth and sixth chapters I challenge previous literature which found that currency unions lead to dramatically larger trade flows. I found that this previous literature did not control for the fact that current trade relationships are the product of historical forces -- in this case, that countries with former colonial relationships experienced only a gradual decay of trade ties over time since independence. Adding in a dynamic control for country-pair specific trends in trade patterns, and omitting currency union changes brought on by major geopolitical events such as communist takeovers and ethnic cleansing episodes severely weakened the previous findings in the literature. In the seventh chapter, I look at the long-run impacts of temporary shocks to trade patterns from the world wars. I find, for example, that while UK manufacturers dominated world export markets before WWI, during the war US exporters rose to prominence, but that after the war the UK could then not regain the market share it had previously, even given the relative reduction of UK GDP. In the final chapter, with coauthor Ju Hyun Pyun, we challenge a previous seminal finding in the development literature which found that a country's ``genetic distance'' to the US predicts its per capita GDP, even while controlling for a whole host of other variables. We find, by contrast, that the apparent impact of genetic distance was not robust to the inclusion of two standard geographic controls -- distance from the equator and a dummy for sub-Saharan Africa.