Three Essays On Structural Change In Long Run Macroeconomic Time Series
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Three Essays On Structural Change In Long Run Macroeconomic Time Series
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Author : Natalie D. Hegwood
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1998
Three Essays On Structural Change In Long Run Macroeconomic Time Series written by Natalie D. Hegwood and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998 with Time-series analysis categories.
Three Essays On Time Series Macroeconomics
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Author : Pedro H. Albuquerque
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Three Essays On Time Series Macroeconomics written by Pedro H. Albuquerque and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
The first two chapters of this thesis propose new time-series methods and apply them to macroeconomic problems, while the third chapter evaluates the predictions of a dynamic general equilibrium model. The first chapter develops a practical log-linear aggregation procedure, which is applied to the heterogeneous growth problem in the U.S. The second chapter presents a simple nonparametric long-run correlation estimator with optimal lag-selection and alignment criteria, and uses it to measure interconnections between American and Latin-American stock returns. The third chapter uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of bank account debits taxation. Time-series techniques are employed to empirically evaluate the model predictions. In the first chapter, a practical aggregation method for heterogeneous log-linear functions is presented. Inequality measures are employed in the construction of an exact representation of the aggregate behavior of an economy formed by heterogeneous log-linear agents. The exact aggregate representation is relatively simple and intuitive. It can be used thereafter in applied issues and in teaching, easing the solving and understanding of aggregation problems. Three macroeconomic applications are discussed: the aggregation of the Lucas supply function, the time-inconsistent behavior of an egalitarian social planner facing heterogeneous discount rates, and the case of a simple heterogeneous growth model. The latter application, which leads to a decomposition of growth rates of the mean into means of growth rates plus inequality changes, is explored empirically. Aggregate CPS data is used to show that, when inequality changes are taken in consideration, the slowdown that followed the first oil shock appears to be worse than usually thought. Additionally, the “new economy” growth resurgence seems less impressive when compared to the growth performance of the period that preceded the first oil shock. In the second chapter, a simple consistent nonparametric estimator of the long-run correlation between two variables is proposed, based on the estimation of the bivariate k-lag difference correlation. It is shown that the estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the Bartlett kernel spectral estimator of the complex coherency at frequency zero. The asymptotic distribution is derived, with a test for the absence of long-run correlation. Optimal lag-selection and alignment criteria are presented. Monte Carlo experiments show that the asymptotic approximations are satisfactory, sometimes even for small samples. They also reveal that the lag-selection and alignment criteria are effective. Long-run correlations between American and Latin-American stock returns are considered. The estimates increase substantially in the second half of the nineties. The results could indicate the presence of a correlation component common to Latin-American markets, which was important in the second half of the period but not in the first. The significant development of investment funds specialized in Latin-American markets and the much-improved foreign access after capital account liberalization in the region may be among the explanations for these patterns. The third chapter uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the economic effects of bank account debits (BAD) taxation. Australia and various Latin-American countries have levied or levy BAD taxes. Theoretical aspects such as tax cascading, financial disintermediation, market illiquidity, impacts on dividend and interest rates, tax revenue, government deficit, and effective rates on final transactions are considered. The Brazilian BAD tax (CPMF) experience is evaluated. The empirical analysis shows that revenue productivity appears to be very sensitive to the tax rate, engendering a Laffer curve. It is also shown that there may be impacts on real interest rates. Part of the BAD tax revenue can be lost due to increased interest payments on government debt. Furthermore, the deadweight losses seem to be significant if compared to revenues. Theory and evidence indicate that the BAD acronym is perhaps more than a witticism.
Three Essays In Time Series Macroeconomics
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Author : Junichiro Ishida
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2000
Three Essays In Time Series Macroeconomics written by Junichiro Ishida and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2000 with categories.
The second chapter of the thesis considers the negative correlation between inflation and the average propensity to consume in the U.S. economy. While many explanations are offered for this observation, it is hard to be reconciled within the framework of a rational expectations model. In this paper, however, we argue that this correlation can be derived as an implication of the permanent income hypothesis. This conjecture is tested by identifying the dynamic response of consumption to different types of shock. The data show that this interpretation is largely consistent. This procedure also allows us to identify transitory consumption and the source of the failure of the permanent income hypothesis.
Essays On Empirical Time Series Modeling With Causality And Structural Change
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Author : Jin Woong Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Essays On Empirical Time Series Modeling With Causality And Structural Change written by Jin Woong Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with Causation categories.
In this dissertation, three related issues of building empirical time series models for financial markets are investigated with respect to contemporaneous causality, dynamics, and structural change. In the first essay, nation-wide industry information transmission among stock returns of ten sectors in the U.S. economy is examined through the Directed Acyclical Graph (DAG) for contemporaneous causality and Bernanke decomposition for dynamics. The evidence shows that the information technology sector is the most root cause sector. Test results show that DAG from ex ante forecast innovations is consistent with the DAG from ex post fit innovations. This supports innovation accounting based on DAGs using ex post innovations. In the second essay, the contemporaneous/dynamic behaviors of real estate and stock returns are investigated. Selected macroeconomic variables are included in the model to explain recent movements of both returns. During 1971-2004, there was a single structural break in October 1980. A distinct difference in contemporaneous causal structure before and after the break is found. DAG results show that REITs take the role of a causal parent after the break. Innovation accounting shows significantly positive responses of real estate returns due to an initial shock in default risk but insignificant responses of stock returns. Also, a shock in short run interest rates affects real estate returns negatively with significance but does not affect stock returns. In the third essay, a structural change in the volatility of five Asian and U.S. stockmarkets is examined during the post-liberalization period (1990-2005) in the Asian financial markets, using the Sup LM test. Four Asian financial markets (Hong Kong,Japan, Korea, and Singapore) experienced structural changes. However, test results do not support the existence of structural change in volatility for Thailand and U.S. Also, results show that the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) persistent coefficient increases, but the Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) impact coefficient, implying short run adjustment, decreases in Asian markets. In conclusion, when the econometric model is set up, it is necessary to consider contemporaneous causality and possible structural breaks (changes). The dissertation emphasizes causal inference and structural consistency in econometric modeling. It highlights their importance in discovering contemporaneous/dynamic causal relationships among variables. These characteristics will likely be helpful in generating accurate forecasts.
Three Essays On The Structural Changes In Modern Economy
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Author : Xingyuan Che
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011
Three Essays On The Structural Changes In Modern Economy written by Xingyuan Che and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
The intent of this study is to explore the causes of macro-level structural changes and the implications of these changes for the macroeconomic fundamentals.
Essays On The Analysis Of Structural Changes In Macroeconomic Time Series
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Author : Kyongwook Choi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2002
Essays On The Analysis Of Structural Changes In Macroeconomic Time Series written by Kyongwook Choi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2002 with Foreign exchange futures categories.
Three Essays On Macroeconomic Information Volatility Persistence And Structural Change
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Author : Wei Liu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Three Essays On Macroeconomic Information Volatility Persistence And Structural Change written by Wei Liu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
Three Essays On The Long Run Behavior Of Macroeconomic Variables
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Author : Sung-In Jun
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1989
Three Essays On The Long Run Behavior Of Macroeconomic Variables written by Sung-In Jun and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with categories.
Structural Change Fundamentals And Growth A Framework And Case Studies
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Author : McMillan, Margaret
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2017-05-11
Structural Change Fundamentals And Growth A Framework And Case Studies written by McMillan, Margaret and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-05-11 with Political Science categories.
Three Essays In Macroeconomics And Finance
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Author : Yang Li
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Three Essays In Macroeconomics And Finance written by Yang Li and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
Chapter 1 develops a continuous-time, heterogeneous agents version of the Barro-Rietz rare disasters model. Following Gabaix (2012), the disaster probability is assumed to be time-varying. The economy consists of two types of agents: (1) a "rational" agent, who updates his beliefs using Bayes Rule, and (2) a "robust" agent, who updates his beliefs using a pessimistically distorted prior. Following Hansen and Sargent (2008), pessimism is disciplined using detection error probabilities. Disaster risk is assumed to be nontradeable. The model is calibrated to US data, and focuses on three disaster episodes: (1) The Great Depression of 1929-33, (2) The Financial Crisis of 2008-09, and (3) The Covid Pandemic of 2020. The key contribution of the paper is to show that the model can replicate the observed spike in trading volume that occurs during disasters. Trading produces endogenous low frequency dynamics in the distribution of wealth. The relative wealth of robust agents gradually declines during normal times, but rises sharply during disasters. These results sound a note of caution when interpreting short-run movements in the distribution of wealth. Chapter 2 examines the market selection hypothesis in a continuous time asset pricing model with jumps. It is shown that the hypothesis is valid when agents have log preferences. The result is robust as it does not depend on whether markets are incomplete. Jumps affect long-run wealth dynamics through a redistribution channel: Disasters lead to large wealth redistribution as agents with heterogeneous beliefs about disasters have different exposures to risky assets. Using tools from ergodic theory, I prove a novel result that generalizes the rationality concept in the existing literature: an agent endowed with the optimal filter will outperform other agents in complete financial markets asymptotically. Chapter 3, a joint paper with Xiaowen Lei, develops a continuous-time overlapping generations model with rare disasters and agents who learn from their own experiences. Using microdata about household finance in China, we establish that economic disasters such as the Great Leap Forward make investors distrustful of the market. Generations that experience disasters invest a lower fraction of their wealth in risky assets, even if similar disasters are not likely to occur again during their lifetimes. "Fearing to attempt" therefore inhibits wealth accumulation by these "depression babies" relative to other generations.