Three Essays On The Labor Market Effects Of Technological Change And Unemployment Benefits
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Three Essays On The Labor Market Effects Of Technological Change And Unemployment Benefits
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Author : Franziska Brall
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Three Essays On The Labor Market Effects Of Technological Change And Unemployment Benefits written by Franziska Brall and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
Essays In Empirical Labor Economics
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Author : Shahriar Sadighi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
Essays In Empirical Labor Economics written by Shahriar Sadighi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Labor economics categories.
My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical labor economics which are self-contained and can be read independently of the others. The first essay, coauthored with Professor Modestino, measures mismatch unemployment in US economy in the post-recession era and explores the heterogeneity among educational groupings. The second essay estimates the changing effects of cognitive ability on wage determination of college bound and non-college bound young adults between 1980s and 2000s. The third essay, coauthored with Professor Dickens, examines the impact of measurement error in survey data on identifying the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity in US economy. Essay I: No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations-- In this study, we extend the framework developed by Sahin et al. (2014) to measure mismatch unemployment since the end of the Great Recession and explore the heterogeneity among educational groupings. Our findings indicate that mismatch across two-digit industries and two- digit occupations explain around 17- 20 percent of the recent recovery in the US unemployment rate since 2010. We also capture movements in employer education requirements over time using a novel database of 87 million online job posting aggregated by Burning Glass Technologies and further show that mismatch is not only greater in magnitude for high-skill occupations but also is more persistent over the course of the recent labor market recovery, possible accounting for the shift rightward that has been observed in the aggregate Beveridge Curve by other researchers. Furthermore, we shed light on at least one of the potential causes of mismatch on the demand side, providing evidence that labor demand shifts among high-skilled occupation groups exhibit a permanent increase in the share of employers requiring a Bachelor's degree as well as other baseline, specialized, and software skills listed on job postings, suggesting a role for structural shifts associated with changes in technology or capital investment. Our results demonstrate that equilibrium models where unemployed workers accumulate specific human capital and, in equilibrium, make explicit mobility decisions across distinct labor markets, can mean that workers are chasing a moving target-at least among high-skilled occupations. Furthermore, our findings inform debates focused on workforce development strategies and related educational policies where decision making could benefit from the use of real-time labor market information on employer demands to provide guidance for both job placement as well as program development. Essay II: The Changing Impacts of Cognitive Ability on Determining Earnings of College Bound and Non-College Bound Young Adults-- Using data on young adults from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, I investigate the changing impact of cognitive ability, as captured by performance on AFQT tests, on wage determination of college bound and non-college bound young adults. My findings indicate that cognitive ability plays a substantially diminished role for the most recent cohort and its impact on wage determination has undergone a drastic change between 1980s and 2000s. My results tend to corroborate the findings of previous studies which emphasize the lifecycle path of technological development from adoption to maturation and trace back the labor market outcomes observed over these periods to pre- and post-2000 patterns in technology investment and its consequent boom-and-bust cycles in the demand for cognitive skills. Essay III: Measurement Error in Survey Data and its Impact on Identifying the Extent of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity-- In this study, we employ data drawn from the 1996, 2001, 2004 and 2008 panels of the SIPP, which cover the years 1996-2013, to assess the effectiveness of dependent interviewing at reducing bias in the estimates of the extent of downward nominal wage rigidity in the US economy. In the 2004 and 2008 panels of the SIPP, dependent interviewing was used much more extensively than in the past. This questioning method by focusing on changes rather than levels of wages and using responses from prior interviews to query apparent inconsistencies over time reduces the incidence of reporting and measurement errors. Our change-in-wage distributions derived from SIPP 2004 and 2008 panels exhibit remarkably larger zero-spikes and asymmetries vis-℗♭℗ -vis those derived from 1996 and 2001 panels before dependent interviewing was used. These results are consistent with the findings of previous studies that used payroll data or statistical techniques to correct for reporting error. We apply one such technique to the SIPP panels before and after the introduction of dependent interviewing. In the pre-2004 panels the correction is large and results in a distribution that closely resembles the uncorrected distributions of the 2004 panel. When the correction is applied to the 2004 panel no evidence of errors is found.
Essays On The Impact Of Technological Progress On The U S Labor Markets
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Author : MUSA ORAK
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Essays On The Impact Of Technological Progress On The U S Labor Markets written by MUSA ORAK and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
This dissertation studies the impact of technological progress on various aspects of the U.S. labor markets such as the recent decline in the labor's share of income, job and wage polarization, rising income and wealth inequalities and skill accumulation. Chapter 1, "Capital-Task Complementarity and the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income," studies how changes in occupational composition of the labor force contributes to the recent decline of the US labor share of income. Following the job polarization literature and classifying labor by tasks performed, I estimate unitary elasticity between equipment capital and labor performing non-routine tasks. This implies that income loss of labor em- ployed in routine task occupations is the main driver of the decline of the aggregate labor share. For a given path of technological change, decline of the labor share is larger when: (i) the substitutability between equipment capital and routine tasks is stronger, and (ii) equip- ment capital has a larger weight in production. Furthermore, a dynamic general equilibrium model shows that the impact of permanent technology shocks on the labor share gets smaller as the fraction of routine task labor declines. Consistent with this, the model predicts that the labor share should stabilize at around 55% in the long-run even if technological progress continues at its current pace. The model also documents that the fall in relative equipment capital prices alone can explain 72% of the decline of the labor share for the 1967-2013 period. Finally, repeating the analysis by disaggregating labor into educational groups reveals that the theory based on capital-task interactions improves on the capital-skill complementarity theory in explaining the decline of the labor share. Chapter 2, "Impact of Information Technology on the Labor Share: Evidence from the U.S. Sectoral Data," contributes to the debate over the relationship between capital deep- ening and the aggregate labor share from a sectoral perspective. The study focuses on a specific group of equipment capital: information and communication technology (ICT) capital and exploits various sectoral heterogeneities to characterize the conditions under which the surge in ICT capital cause the labor share to fall. First, I document significant capital- task complementarity at each sector. Second, decline in ICT capital prices turns out to have a positive impact on the labor share. However, gains of labor devoted to non-routine task occupations are offset by the losses of labor employed in routine task occupations when a sector has: (i) initially high load of employment in routine task occupations, and (ii) weak absolute complementarity between ICT capital and labor working in occupations associated with non-routine tasks. Since sectors satisfying these two conditions have compromised the majority of the economy, the aggregate labor share has exhibited a downward trend so far, leading to the illusion that information technology has been driving the labor share downwards. However, there are two promising facts concerning the future: in one hand, the share of these sectors in value added is persistently falling and on the other hand, the share of routine task employment continues to fall at every sector. Thus, once the structural shifts and within sectoral adjustments are completed, the decline in the labor share should revert back. Chapter 3, "Job Polarization, Skill Accumulation and Wealth Inequality," is one of the first attempts in literature to incorporate the job polarization idea into an otherwise standard incomplete markets model with heterogeneous agents in two dimensions: skills and idiosyn- cratic productivity shocks. This set up allows us to contribute to the existing literature in two ways: (i) linking job polarization with rising wealth concentration, and (ii) modeling the continuous rise in skill supply in response to technological progress and job polarization accompanying it over time. When calibrated and solved for the years 1981 and 2011, the model shows that the decline in relative computer (ICT) capital prices alone accounts for a significant portion of the increases in employment share and relative wages of high skill occupations, as well as the increase in the supply of labor with a college or above-college degree. Consistent with the routinization hypothesis, the model also shows that advances in computer technology can account for most of the decline of the employment share and rela- tive wage of middle class over the three decades between 1981 and 2011. Furthermore, the model successfully captures the erosion of middle-class wealth, whereas wealth concentration rises substantially at the right tail and slightly at the left tail of the wealth distribution.
Essays On Labor Market Frictions Technological Change And Macroeconomic Fluctuations
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Author : Juuso Vanhala
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
Essays On Labor Market Frictions Technological Change And Macroeconomic Fluctuations written by Juuso Vanhala and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with categories.
Essays On The Economics Of Local Labor Markets
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Author : Matt Notowidigdo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Essays On The Economics Of Local Labor Markets written by Matt Notowidigdo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
This thesis studies the economics of local labor markets. There are three chapters in the thesis, and each chapter studies how economic outcomes are affected by local labor market conditions. The first chapter studies the incidence of local labor demand shocks. This chapter starts from the observation that low-skill workers are comparatively immobile. When labor demand slumps in a city, college-educated workers tend to relocate whereas non college workers are disproportionately likely to remain to face declining wages and employment. A standard explanation of these facts is that mobility is more costly for low-skill workers. This chapter proposes and tests an alternative explanation, which is that the incidence of adverse shocks is borne in large part by (falling) real estate rental prices and (rising) social transfers. These factors reduce the real cost of living differentially for low-income workers and thus compensate them, in part or in full, for declining labor demand. I develop a spatial equilibrium model which, appropriately parameterized, identifies both the magnitude of unobserved mobility costs by skill and the shape of the local housing supply curve. Nonlinear reduced form estimates using U.S. Census data document that positive labor demand shocks increase population more than negative shocks reduce population, that this asymmetry is larger for lows kill workers, and that such an asymmetry is absent for wages, housing values, and rental prices. Estimates of the full model using a nonlinear, simultaneous equations GMM estimator suggest that (1) the asymmetric population response is primarily accounted for by an asymmetric housing supply curve, (2) the differential migration response by skill is primarily accounted for by transfer payments, and (3) estimated mobility costs are at most modest and are comparable for high-skill and low-skill workers, suggesting that the primary explanation for the comparative immobility of low-skilled workers is not higher mobility costs per se, but rather a lower incidence of adverse labor demand shocks. The second chapter, written jointly with Daron Acemoglu and Amy Finkelstein, studies how local area health spending responds to permanent changes in local area income. This chapter is motivated by the fact that health expenditures as a share of GDP have more than tripled over the last half century, and a common conjecture is that this is primarily a consequence of rising real per capita income, which more than doubled over the same period. We investigate this hypothesis empirically by instrumenting for local area income with time-series variation in global oil prices between 1970 and 1990 interacted with cross-sectional variation in the oil reserves across different areas of the Southern United States. This strategy enables us to capture both the partial equilibrium and the local general equilibrium effects of an increase in income on health expenditures. Our central estimate is an income elasticity of 0.7, with an elasticity of 1.1 as the upper end of the 95 percent confidence interval. Point estimates from alternative specifications fall on both sides of our central estimate, but are almost always less than 1. We also present evidence suggesting that there are unlikely to be substantial national or global general equilibrium effects of rising income on health spending, for example through induced innovation. Our overall reading of the evidence is that rising income is unlikely to be a major driver of the rising health share of GDP. The third chapter, written jointly with Kory Kroft, studies theoretically and empirically how optimal Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits vary with local labor market conditions. Theoretically, we derive the relationship between the moral hazard cost of UI and the unemployment rate in a standard search model. The model motivates our empirical strategy which tests whether the effect of UI benefits on unemployment durations varies with the local unemployment rate. In our preferred specification, a one standard deviation increase in the local unemployment rate reduces the magnitude of the duration elasticity by 32%. Using this estimate to calibrate the optimal level of UI benefits, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 6.4 percentage point increase in the optimal replacement rate. JEL classification: J61, 110, J65.
Essays On Capital Accumulation Economic Growth Income Inequality And Unemployment
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Author : Iqtiaruddin Md Mamun
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Essays On Capital Accumulation Economic Growth Income Inequality And Unemployment written by Iqtiaruddin Md Mamun and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
The central theme of this thesis is capital accumulation. The thesis reports that increase in economic growth rate and reduction in income inequality boosts capital accumulation that in turn reduces unemployment. Three essays constitute the thesis. The first essay investigates whether saving has been driven by growth or gowth has been driven by saving using data of Asian Miracle Economies (AME) - India, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan - over the period 1870-2011.The second essay explores the effect of income inequality on capital accumulation using the data of 20 OECD countries - Canada, USA, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherland, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and UK - over the period 1870-2011. The effect of capital accumulation on unemployment in 21 OECD countries - Canada, USA, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherland, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and UK - has been explored in the third essay. Following the neoclassical revival some economists attribute the amazing productivity growth rate in Asian Miracle Economies (AME) to capital accumulation while assign the backseat to the technological progress - the so called Krugman-Young hypothesis in which saving and schooling are independent of growth. However such assumption is questionable as from the perspective of growth accounting using Cobb-Douglas production function, theories of saving and the scenario that in AMEs prior to WWII living standard was close to subsistence level thus leaving less opportunity of saving and only after WWII with the increase in living standard financial saving and education increase it may be shown that saving and education are not exogenous and independent of growth. The first essay addresses this endogeneity and applying a two-way identification strategy and unique data covering the period 1870-2011 for the AMEs finds that financial saving as well as education comes from productivity growth, financial saving has no significant effect on growth but growth is positively related to the change in educational attainment. These results are robust to choice of instrument set, productivity measurement, the choice of growth model, measurement of saving, inclusion of covariates, and to the choice of estimation period. The essay contributes to the literature explaining that productivity growth drives fixed and human capital accumulation as in the growth controversy it has never been asked and the factor accumulation hypothesis never explains from where the savings come and very little work, if any, has investigated whether growth influences education. The findings of the existing empirical literature suggest that the effect of income inequality on savings is either positive or insignificant. The reason for such findings of the existing empirical literature may be that in estimating the coefficient of income inequality on savings the positive feed-back effect from savings to income inequality has not been dealt with adequately. The second essay takes this endogeneity arising from positive feed-back effect of savings to income inequality in to consideration and applies a two-way identification strategy and unique data covering the period 1870-2011 for 20 OECD countries andfinds that income inequality affects savings negatively. The finding is robust to variation in estimation periods, different measures of saving and inequality and the inclusion of important confounding variables such as financial development, growth and education. Following the seminal work of Layard, Nickell, and Jackman (2005) that propounds no linkage between capital accumulation and unemployment based on the assumption of elasticity of substitution between capital and labour equals unity the role of capital accumulation has been deemphasized for long in explaining unemployment. And the emphasis was on labour market deregulation for reducing unemployment as labour market rigidities arising from trade union power; labour taxes, generous welfare benefits, strict employment protection, and other institutional factors were considered to be the main determinants of unemployment. The third essay using the data for the largest number of countries over the longest period of time - 21 OECD countries over the period 1870-2011- with wage push and aggregate demand factors being taken in to account finds that capital accumulation is important in reducing OECD unemployment.
Three Essays In Macroeconomics
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Author : Rosemary Kaiser
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2022
Three Essays In Macroeconomics written by Rosemary Kaiser and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022 with categories.
This dissertation is comprised of three divergent chapters in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, I document how many countries have employment protections that create two-tiered labor markets in which some jobs are more secure than others. I model the selection of younger workers into more precarious jobs, as documented empirically. I then estimate the effects of changes to employment protection legislation. By including human capital accumulation in employment and human capital loss during unemployment, the effects of reducing employment protections differ qualitatively from previous work, which ignores the human capital channel. Reducing employment protections increases the job-finding rate for young workers while reducing average income and employment. This result is driven by lower average human capital in the economy without employment protections. The second chapter discusses how wage-proportional staffing fees provide motivation for domestically outsourced workers to invest less in human capital under certain conditions. This may partially explain why, after controlling for observables, workers in these positions earn about 10\% less. I document wage and wage growth differences among workers in the employment services industry. A simple model with firm-specific skill investment is then used to generate endogenous firm-specific skill and wage differences between outsourced and non-outsourced workers. Additionally, the model shows how the prevalence of outsourcing responds to changes in policy and aggregate conditions. The third chapter considers policies to promote the spread of technologies that drive the growth of whole eras and entire sectors. Recent years have seen interest in using regulatory power to internalize the benefits of one such technology: broadband internet. This chapter develops a framework to study how competition among providers affects firm and household technology adoption and subsequent macroeconomic outcomes. With a novel data set on broadband availability, speed, and prices, a model of broadband provider entry and quality choice relates prices to market structure. These pricing results then inform a model of household and firm decisions. An additional provider is estimated to be most effective in boosting firm profitability in markets with relatively educated populations with previously few to no providers. In terms of increasing household adoption, an additional low-speed provider is most effective where median household income is low. An additional high-speed provider is most effective in markets with no high-speed and few low-speed providers.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
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Author : Klaus Schwab
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2017-01-03
The Fourth Industrial Revolution written by Klaus Schwab and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum on how the impending technological revolution will change our lives We are on the brink of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. And this one will be unlike any other in human history. Characterized by new technologies fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, the Fourth Industrial Revolution will impact all disciplines, economies and industries - and it will do so at an unprecedented rate. World Economic Forum data predicts that by 2025 we will see: commercial use of nanomaterials 200 times stronger than steel and a million times thinner than human hair; the first transplant of a 3D-printed liver; 10% of all cars on US roads being driverless; and much more besides. In The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Schwab outlines the key technologies driving this revolution, discusses the major impacts on governments, businesses, civil society and individuals, and offers bold ideas for what can be done to shape a better future for all.
Technology And The Future Of Work
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Author : Adrian Peralta-Alva
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-10-01
Technology And The Future Of Work written by Adrian Peralta-Alva and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper uses a DSGE model to simulate the impact of technological change on labor markets and income distribution. It finds that technological advances offers prospects for stronger productivity and growth, but brings risks of increased income polarization. This calls for inclusive policies tailored to country-specific circumstances and preferences, such as investment in human capital to facilitate retooling of low-skilled workers so that they can partake in the gains of technological change, and redistributive policies (such as differentiated income tax cuts) to help reallocate gains. Policies are also needed to facilitate the process of adjustment.
Information Technology And The U S Workforce
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Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 2017-04-18
Information Technology And The U S Workforce written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-04-18 with Computers categories.
Recent years have yielded significant advances in computing and communication technologies, with profound impacts on society. Technology is transforming the way we work, play, and interact with others. From these technological capabilities, new industries, organizational forms, and business models are emerging. Technological advances can create enormous economic and other benefits, but can also lead to significant changes for workers. IT and automation can change the way work is conducted, by augmenting or replacing workers in specific tasks. This can shift the demand for some types of human labor, eliminating some jobs and creating new ones. Information Technology and the U.S. Workforce explores the interactions between technological, economic, and societal trends and identifies possible near-term developments for work. This report emphasizes the need to understand and track these trends and develop strategies to inform, prepare for, and respond to changes in the labor market. It offers evaluations of what is known, notes open questions to be addressed, and identifies promising research pathways moving forward.