Three Essays On The Role Of Expectations In Business Cycles
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Three Essays On The Role Of Expectations In Business Cycles
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Author : Rémi Vivès
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Three Essays On The Role Of Expectations In Business Cycles written by Rémi Vivès and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
In this thesis, I investigate the role of expectations in business cycles by studying three different kinds of expectations. First, I focus on a theoretical explanation of business cycles generated by changes in expectations which turn out to be self-fulfilling. This chapter improves a puzzle from the sunspot literature, thereby giving more evidence towards an interpretation of business cycles based on self-fulfilling prophecies. Second, I empirically analyze the propagation mechanisms of central bank announcements through changes in market participants' beliefs. This chapter shows that credible announcements about future unconventional monetary policies can be used as a coordination device in a sovereign debt crisis framework. Third, I study a broader concept of expectations and investigate the predictive power of political climate on the pricing of sovereign risk. This chapter shows that political climate provides additional predictive power beyond the traditional determinants of sovereign bond spreads. In order to interrogate the role of expectations in business cycles from multiple angles, I use a variety of methodologies in this thesis, including theoretical and empirical analyses, web scraping, machine learning, and textual analysis. In addition, this thesis uses innovative data from the social media platform Twitter. Regardless of my methodology, all my results convey the same message: expectations matter, both for economic research and economically sound policy-making.
Three Essays On Expectation Driven Business Cycles
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Author : Shen Guo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Three Essays On Expectation Driven Business Cycles written by Shen Guo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
This thesis studies business cycles driven by agents' expectation of future technology changes. The first chapter explores the effects which nominal rigidities and monetary policies have on the generation of Pigou cycles. The optimal response of the central bank is analyzed under circumstances when agents receive a signal indicating the technology change in the future. To achieve these objectives, I introduce nominal rigidities and monetary policy into a standard two-sector model with non-durable and durable goods. The optimal reaction of the central bank is found by solving the Ramsey optimization problem. I find that nominal rigidities tend to amplify the responses to the expectation and monetary policies affect the expectation driven business cycles by affecting the real interest rate and user cost of durable goods. Another interesting result is that a simple policy rule reacting to the inflation rates in both non-durable and durable sector with appropriate weights can closely mimic the performance of the Ramsey policy. The second chapter estimates a sticky price two-sector model with home production and capital adjustment costs to assess the significance of the news shocks in generating aggregate fluctuations. The analysis suggests that news shocks account for about 34% of the fluctuations in the aggregate output, 25% of the fluctuations in consumption-sector output and 38% of the fluctuations in investment-sector output. The third chapter explores the booms and busts induced by news shocks in a model economy with financial market frictions. With the presence of financial market frictions, firms have to pay an external finance premium which depends inversely on their net values. This provides firms with an incentive to build up capital stocks now to lower the external finance premium in the future. When firms receive news indicating a future technology improvement, they anticipate the need for more capital and so more external finance in the future; they could lower their future external finance costs by building up their capital and net values now. By adding financial market frictions into an otherwise standard RBC model, the model in chapter 3 succeeds in generating a boom when a news shock hits the economy.
Essays On Expectations Driven Business Cycles
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Author : Oscar Pavlov
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
Essays On Expectations Driven Business Cycles written by Oscar Pavlov and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business cycles categories.
This thesis addresses the role of imperfect competition in business cycles driven by expectations and beliefs about the future state of the economy. It consists of three self-contained papers. The first paper examines the roles of composition of aggregate demand and taste for variety in a real business cycle model with endogenous entries and exits of monopolistically competitive firms. It finds that taste for variety can alone make the economy susceptible to endogenous (sunspot driven) business cycles. Importantly, in light of recent research suggesting that aggregate markups in the U.S. are procyclical, sunspot equilibria emerge with procyclical markups that are within empirically plausible ranges. The second paper considers aggregate markup variations in business cycles driven by news about future total factor productivity. It shows that the addition of endogenous countercyclical markups and investment adjustment costs allows the standard one-sector real business cycle model to generate empirically supported expectations driven fluctuations. The simulated model reproduces the regular features of U.S. aggregate fluctuations. The third paper investigates the role of product variety effects and variable markups in expectations-driven business cycles. It demonstrates that taste for variety and investment adjustment costs allow the otherwise canonical real business cycle model to display quantitatively realistic fluctuations in response to news about future total factor productivity. Moreover, the interaction between price-cost decisions and firm entry and exit allows such business cycles to occur for empirically plausible levels of procyclical markups and variety effects.
Three Essays On The Implications Of Limited Attention In Economics
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Author : Jérémy Boccanfuso
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
Three Essays On The Implications Of Limited Attention In Economics written by Jérémy Boccanfuso and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
This dissertation is a collection of three essays on the economic implications of limited attention. It is supplemented with a general introduction (Chapter 1).The first chapter introduces an ongoing paradigm shift in the macroeconomic literature from full-information rational expectations to rationally inattentive economic agents. It then presents some characteristics of this new class of models and current challenges in the literature that motivates the work in this dissertation.The second chapter is a contribution to consumption theory. It studies the consumption-saving problem of a consumer who faces a fixed cost for paying attention to noisy information and whose attention strategy, i.e., whether or not she pays attention, can be a function of the underlying information. At the optimum, consumers chose to be at- tentive when evidence accumulates far from their prior beliefs. The model provides an explanation for four puzzling empirical findings on consumption and expectations. First, consumers' attention depends on the information content. Second, aggregate information rigidities vary over the business cycle. Third, consumers only react to large anticipated shocks and neglect the impact of small ones. Fourth, aggregate consumption dynamics vary over the business cycle. The third chapter is a theoretical contribution to the literature in behavioral public economics. It studies how information frictions in agents' tax perceptions affect the design of actual tax policy. Developing a positive theory of tax policy, it shows that agents' inattention interacts with policymaking and induces the government to implementinefficiently high tax rates. It then quantifies the magnitude of this policy distortion for the US economy. Overall, the findings suggest that existing information frictions - and thereby tax complexity - lead to undesirable, large and regressive tax increases.The fourth chapter is an empirical contribution to the macroeconomic literature on information frictions. Using the ECB survey of professional forecasters, it estimates a two margin forecast formation process that allows for forecast rounding on individual and consensus forecast data. Forecasters decide when to revise their forecast (extensive margin). When they do, they slowly incorporate new information (intensive margin) and may report a rounded value for their new forecast (rounding). It finds that these three rigidities simultaneously exist and estimate their respective contribution. The overall forecast stickiness is almost exclusively the consequence of the rigidities at the intensive margin. It then derives quarterly time series for the evolution of information frictions and proposes a simple mapping to account for these variations in economic models.
Three Essays On Productivity Rle Business Cycles
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Author : Mark J. Lasky
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2015-03-27
Three Essays On Productivity Rle Business Cycles written by Mark J. Lasky and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.
The behaviour of US productivity since this book was originally publishedin 1994, has added new relevance to the relationship between profits and productivity. In the long run, productivity growth determines the economic standard of living. This book is divided into three parts: the basis of the first is the empirical finding that, controlling for normal business cycle effects, productivity grows faster when profits have been low than otherwise. The second part discusses how to measure marginal cost using time series data and the third tests a basic assumption that productivity growth is exogenous to labour and capital.
Essays On Expectations Driven Business Cycles
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Author : Anca-Ioana Sirbu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Essays On Expectations Driven Business Cycles written by Anca-Ioana Sirbu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Business cycles categories.
Essays On Business Cycles
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Author : Thuy Lan Nguyen
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Essays On Business Cycles written by Thuy Lan Nguyen and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Although news shocks are important in explaining the 1980 recession and the 1993-94 boom, they do not explain much of other business cycles in our sample. Moreover, the contribution of news shocks to explaining short run fluctuations is negligible. These results arise because data on expectations show that changes in expectations are not large and do not resemble actual movements of output. Therefore, news shocks cannot be the main driver of business cycles. Chapters Two and Three focus on the driving forces of business cycles in open economies. We start Chapter Two with an observation that business cycles are strongly correlated across countries. We document that this pattern is also true for small open economies between 1900 and 2006 using a novel data set for 17 small developed and developing countries. Furthermore, we provide a new evidence about the role of common shocks in business cycles for small open economies in a structural estimation of a real small open economy model featuring a realistic debt adjustment cost and common shocks.
The Theory Of Money And Financial Institutions
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Author : Martin Shubik
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1999
The Theory Of Money And Financial Institutions written by Martin Shubik and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Business & Economics categories.
This first volume in a three-volume exposition of Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics" explores a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. This is the first volume in a three-volume exposition of Martin Shubik's vision of "mathematical institutional economics"--a term he coined in 1959 to describe the theoretical underpinnings needed for the construction of an economic dynamics. The goal is to develop a process-oriented theory of money and financial institutions that reconciles micro- and macroeconomics, using as a prime tool the theory of games in strategic and extensive form. The approach involves a search for minimal financial institutions that appear as a logical, technological, and institutional necessity, as part of the "rules of the game." Money and financial institutions are assumed to be the basic elements of the network that transmits the sociopolitical imperatives to the economy. Volume 1 deals with a one-period approach to economic exchange with money, debt, and bankruptcy. Volume 2 explores the new economic features that arise when we consider multi-period finite and infinite horizon economies. Volume 3 will consider the specific role of financial institutions and government, and formulate the economic financial control problem linking micro- and macroeconomics.
Three Essays On Business Cycles
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Author : Ryo Jinnai
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Three Essays On Business Cycles written by Ryo Jinnai and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
In the third chapter, I conduct an empirical study of the so-called Japanese "lost decade," over a decade-long economic slump in the Japanese economy since early 1990s. I investigate the effect of Japanese monetary policy when short-term nominal interest rates were virtually zero. A structural break in the mid-90s was an issue in previous empirical work, but the sample period of this paper, from March 1999 to October 2006, is free from it. The main finding is that monetary policy acting through the reserve balance control during the period had real effects on the economy.
Essays In Macroeconomics
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Essays In Macroeconomics written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with categories.
There is growing acknowledgement that changes in expectations are an important cause of the business cycle. Business cycles are characterized by positive co-movements between consumption, investment, output and hours, yet changes in expectations cannot generate such positive co-movements in the most standard neo-classical business cycle model. If one is willing to entertain a richer production technology, it is possible to obtain the kind of fluctuations typical of business cycles that are caused by expectation revisions. This thesis analyzes systematically such a production technology, characterized by a nonlinear transformation curve between consumption and investment at the aggregate level, and evaluate some of its macroeconomic implications. This thesis comprises three essays. The first essay empirically investigates if the proposed change in the production technology improves the capacity of neo-classical business cycle models to account for the behavior of the aggregate labor market. It finds that the proposed change is a partial improvement over standard models. The second essay shows that while a nonlinear transformation curve helps in obtaining an economic expansion following good news about future productivity gains, it can do so only if the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption is high. To obtain an expansion in the more general case, one has to allow for a sufficiently high degree of complementarity between capital and labor in production. The third essays estimates a version of the model to analyze its business cycle properties. In the model, the nonlinear transformation curve arises because some resources need to be spent to distribute goods to their final use. There, it is found that the estimated model reproduces well the dynamics of output and investment but produces too much consumption volatility. Moreover, it suggests that news about future productivity changes are a more important source of economic fluctuation than actual chan.
