Valuation Of Wind Energy Projects And Statistical Analysis Of Wind Power
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Valuation Of Wind Energy Projects And Statistical Analysis Of Wind Power
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Author : Andrew Nanopoulos
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Valuation Of Wind Energy Projects And Statistical Analysis Of Wind Power written by Andrew Nanopoulos and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
As energy becomes an increasingly important issue for generations to come, it is crucial to develop tools for valuing and understanding energy projects from an economic perspective since ultimately only economically viable solutions will be pushed forward. A model is developed for valuing a generic offshore floating wind farm from a corporate finance perspective. The model is used to value the project based on multiple valuation metrics and to generate sensitivity analyses on multiple important technical, cost and financial parameters. It is found that offshore wind projects can be economically viable under current conditions contingent on high annual mean wind speed and government support. In addition, it is also found that financial parameters prove to be equally or even more important than technical parameters in affecting the overall project value. Furthermore, the wind speed and power output are modeled using a mean reverting Ornstein - Uhlenbeck process whereby it is found that while wind speed is positively autocorrelated, the averaging period plays an important role in determining the nature and extent of the autocorrelation. Finally, the valuation is extended and generalized to a Black-Scholes option based valuation of any project whose underlying asset follows a mean reverting process, whereby a model is developed to find the debt and equity values under the assumption of time independence. The tools developed for this purpose can prove to be useful in other applications besides energy, such as shipping and commodities, as the underlying characteristics of energy projects are often similar across other markets.
Wind Energy
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Author : Mathew Sathyajith
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-03-14
Wind Energy written by Mathew Sathyajith and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-03-14 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Growing energy demand and environmental consciousness have re-evoked human interest in wind energy. As a result, wind is the fastest growing energy source in the world today. Policy frame works and action plans have already been for- lated at various corners for meeting at least 20 per cent of the global energy - mand with new-renewables by 2010, among which wind is going to be the major player. In view of the rapid growth of wind industry, Universities, all around the world, have given due emphasis to wind energy technology in their undergraduate and graduate curriculum. These academic programmes attract students from diver- fied backgrounds, ranging from social science to engineering and technology. Fundamentals of wind energy conversion, which is discussed in the preliminary chapters of this book, have these students as the target group. Advanced resource analysis tools derived and applied are beneficial to academics and researchers working in this area. The Wind Energy Resource Analysis (WERA) software, provided with the book, is an effective tool for wind energy practitioners for - sessing the energy potential and simulating turbine performance at prospective sites.
Wind Resource Assessment And Micro Siting
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Author : Matthew Huaiquan Zhang
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2015-05-26
Wind Resource Assessment And Micro Siting written by Matthew Huaiquan Zhang and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-05-26 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Covers all the key areas of wind resource assessment technologies from an engineer’s perspective Focuses on wind analysis for wind plant siting, design and analysis Addresses all aspects from atmospheric boundary layer characteristics, to wind resource measurement systems, uncertainties in measurements, computations and analyses, to plant performance Covers the basics of atmospheric science through to turbine siting, turbine responses, and to environmental impacts Contents can be used for research purposes as well as a go-to reference guide, written from the perspective of a hands-on engineer Topic is of ongoing major international interest for its economic and environmental benefits
Wind Resource Assessment
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Author : Michael Brower
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2012-06-19
Wind Resource Assessment written by Michael Brower and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-06-19 with Technology & Engineering categories.
A practical, authoritative guide to the assessment of wind resources for utility-scale wind projects authored by a team of experts from a leading renewable energy consultancy The successful development of wind energy projects depends on an accurate assessment of where, how often, and how strongly the wind blows. A mistake in this stage of evaluation can cause severe financial losses and missed opportunities for developers, lenders, and investors. Wind Resource Assessment: A Practical Guide to Developing a Wind Project shows readers how to achieve a high standard of resource assessment, reduce the uncertainty associated with long-term energy performance, and maximize the value of their project assets. Beginning with the siting, installation, and operation of a high-quality wind monitoring program, this book continues with methods of data quality control and validation, extrapolating measurements from anemometer height to turbine height, adjusting short-term observations for historical climate conditions, and wind flow modeling to account for terrain and surface conditions. In addition, Wind Resource Assessment addresses special topics such as: Worker safety Data security Remote sensing technology (sodar and lidar) Offshore resource assessment Impacts of climate change Uncertainty estimation Plant design and energy production estimatio Filled with important information ranging from basic fundamentals of wind to cutting-edge research topics, and accompanied by helpful references and discussion questions, this comprehensive text designed for an international audience is a vital reference that promotes consistent standards for wind assessment across the industry.
Data Science For Wind Energy
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Author : Yu Ding
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-06-04
Data Science For Wind Energy written by Yu Ding and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Data Science for Wind Energy provides an in-depth discussion on how data science methods can improve decision making for wind energy applications, near-ground wind field analysis and forecast, turbine power curve fitting and performance analysis, turbine reliability assessment, and maintenance optimization for wind turbines and wind farms. A broad set of data science methods covered, including time series models, spatio-temporal analysis, kernel regression, decision trees, kNN, splines, Bayesian inference, and importance sampling. More importantly, the data science methods are described in the context of wind energy applications, with specific wind energy examples and case studies. Please also visit the author’s book site at https://aml.engr.tamu.edu/book-dswe. Features Provides an integral treatment of data science methods and wind energy applications Includes specific demonstration of particular data science methods and their use in the context of addressing wind energy needs Presents real data, case studies and computer codes from wind energy research and industrial practice Covers material based on the author's ten plus years of academic research and insights
Valuing Wind Generation On Integrated Power Systems
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Author : Ken Dragoon
language : en
Publisher: William Andrew
Release Date : 2010-09-28
Valuing Wind Generation On Integrated Power Systems written by Ken Dragoon and has been published by William Andrew this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-28 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Wind powered generation is the fastest growing energy source in the United States due to a combination of economic incentives, public preference for renewable energy as expressed in government policies, competitive costs, and the need to address global warming. The economic consequences of the relative variability and lower predictability of wind generation are not easily captured in standard economic analyses performed by utility planners. This book provides utility analysts and regulators a guide to analyzing the value of wind generation in the context of modern power systems.Guiding the reader through the steps to understanding and valuing wind generation on modern power systems, this book approaches the issue from the various, current perspectives in the US. These include utilities that are still primarily vertically integrated power providers and systems dominated by independent system operators (ISOs). Outlined here are the basic procedures in a wind valuation study, described with enough detail so that analysts spanning a range of resources and sophistication can reasonably undertake a competent study. Descriptions of studies performed by other utilities are also provided, explaining their specific approaches to the fundamentals. Finally, it includes a short section on power systems that utilize relatively large fractions of wind, and how operating procedures and valuing techniques may need alteration to accommodate them.• Reviews operating challenges that large amounts of wind power present to power systems operators • Outlines alternative approaches to quantifying the systems services necessary to accommodate the wind • Explains how economic analyses of wind generation are competently performed • Describes how to represent wind generation in computer models commonly used by electric utility planners that may not be specifically designed to incorporate wind generation • Reviews methods used by some select utility companies around the United States • Touches on key European issues involving relatively high levels of wind generation • Written at the level of the utility planner, assuming a basic understanding of economic dispatch of generators and elementary statistics Outlines the role of wind forecasting in wind valuation studies Evaluates the importance of estimating wind generation to meet peak demand Researches how the market structure effects the value of wind energy Discusses power systems that utilize relatively large fractions of wind power Highlights the operating procedures that can enhance the value of wind generation
Wind Farm
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Author : Gastón Orlando Suvire
language : en
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Release Date : 2011-06-14
Wind Farm written by Gastón Orlando Suvire and has been published by BoD – Books on Demand this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-14 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The evolution of wind power generation is being produced with a very high growth rate at world level (around 30%). This growth, together with the foreseeable installation of many wind farms in a near future, forces the utilities to evaluate diverse aspects of the integration of wind power generation in the power systems. This book addresses a wide variety of issues regarding the integration of wind farms in power systems. It contains 10 chapters divided into three parts. The first part outlines aspects related to technical regulations and costs of wind farms. In the second part, the potential estimation and the impact on the environment of wind energy project are presented. Finally, the third part covers issues of the siting assessment of wind farms.
Analytical Models For Wind Power Investment
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Author : Mang-Kong Cheng
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017-01-26
Analytical Models For Wind Power Investment written by Mang-Kong Cheng and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-01-26 with categories.
This dissertation, "Analytical Models for Wind Power Investment" by Mang-kong, Cheng, 鄭孟剛, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Wind power generation has experienced an explosive growth worldwide. It is a promising renewable energy source to countries that are short of fossil fuels, e.g. China. While wind power is a distinctive direction to go for, it is still necessary to examine the rationale behind such investing mania, and this thesis analyzes the issue by collectively investment modeling. For investment analysis, it is necessary to first identify the relevant market background before inferring to any analytical model. Chapter 2 identifies a number of wind power investment scenarios in accordance to modern electricity market regime, primarily American and European structures. Among them, two main scenarios are investigated and modeled subsequently: fixed tariff wind power project invested by independent power producer and wind power project undertaken by utility. It has to be emphasized that different market scenarios would lead to different modeling methodologies for best representing the reality. Wind power is intermittent and uncertain. One way to describe the probabilistic energy production is by statistical characterization of wind power in a period of time. Chapter 3 presents a standalone analytical model of the wind power probability distribution and its higher order statistics. Large-scale deployment of wind power would influence power system in unprecedented ways. High penetration wind power poses a need of refinement to existing methodologies on production costing and reliability evaluation. The applications of the probabilistic wind power model to these topics are outlined in this chapter. In Chapter 4, investment of fixed tariff wind power project is analyzed. Operation of wind farm is very passive and as long as wind keeps blowing, such wind power investment has minimal risk in annual revenue. The low-risk profile facilitates debt financing. This leads to the attempt to manipulate the project capital structure to maximize the project levered value. Yet the default probability is raised and associated with a subjective value of default probability there is a value-at-risk debt level. I therefore propose an optimization formulation to maximize the wind power project valuation with debt as decision variable subject to the value-at-risk debt constraint. Apart from independent wind power producers, many policy and market factors driving wind power development are actually put on the utility side, e.g. Renewable Portfolio Standard (Renewable Energy Target) in U.S. (Europe) and Green Power Programs. It implies that utility has to have wind power (or other renewable) capacity ready by a certain date. In practice, utility may take action earlier if conditions are favorable or optimal. The conditions considered here are fossil fuel prices or in more general setting, electricity contract prices. Define the total fuel cost saving from conventional units as the benefit of wind power. If fuel prices are high enough, substituting load demand by wind energy is profitable, vice versa. The investment decision is analogous to premature exercising of an American option, in which the wind power project is modeled as real option. Chapter 5 offers detailed formulation of this ide
Grid And Market Integration Of Large Scale Wind Farms Using Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Technical And Energy Economic Aspects
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Author : Ümit Cali
language : en
Publisher: kassel university press GmbH
Release Date : 2011
Grid And Market Integration Of Large Scale Wind Farms Using Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Technical And Energy Economic Aspects written by Ümit Cali and has been published by kassel university press GmbH this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with categories.
A Real Options Valuation Of Renewable Energy Projects
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Author : Natasha Burke
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
A Real Options Valuation Of Renewable Energy Projects written by Natasha Burke and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
Due to climate change concerns, high oil prices and nuclear dangers there is increasing support for renewable energy. At the forefront of the debate for government support of renewable energy are wind energy and biofuels. Used primarily for power generation and transportation, respectively, there have been many debates surrounding the reliability and efficiency of these resources. These debates often address the uncertainty in the economic value of the resource through time, however it is often difficult to quantify this uncertainty, which stems from the random behavior of prices and the unpredictable nature of the resource itself. In this thesis we use well developed theory taken from quantitative finance, more specifically real options theory, as well as various mathematical and statistical techniques and models used in option pricing to determine the economic value of these resources. Market design and policy are key considerations throughout the analysis. A simplified model of a corn ethanol plant is analyzed using a simple Margrabe exchange option as well as numerical techniques such as bootstrapping and finite difference methods for solving partial differential equations. It is determined that, as correlation between corn price and gasoline price increases, the value of the ethanol plant decreases. The level of decrease is substantial, and the economic and political consequences are discussed. A simplified wind-storage model is also developed and analyzed as a dynamic program, allowing for analytic solutions. This allows for the determination of an optimal bidding strategy when the penalty for failing to meet a committed generation level is defined. The market consequences of these results are discussed and compared with numerical results obtained from a more complex wind-storage model where analytical solutions are not available. These results are obtained using a modified block bootstrapping method, and the optimal storage size is determined for a specific penalty structure.