Yield Curve And Financial Uncertainty
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Yield Curve And Financial Uncertainty
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Author : Efrem Castelnuovo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Yield Curve And Financial Uncertainty written by Efrem Castelnuovo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found to predict movements in interest rates at different maturities. In particular, an increase in financial uncertainty is found to trigger a negative and significant response of both short and long term interest rates. The response of the short end of the yield curve (i.e., of short term interest rates) is found to be stronger than that of the long end (i.e., of long term ones). In other words, a financial uncertainty shock causes a temporary steepening of the yield curve. This result is consistent, among other interpretations, with medium-term expectations of a recovery in real activity after a financial uncertainty shock.
The Era Of Uncertainty
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Author : Francois Trahan
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-07-13
The Era Of Uncertainty written by Francois Trahan and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-07-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
Money Information And Uncertainty
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Author : Charles Albert Eric Goodhart
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1975
Money Information And Uncertainty written by Charles Albert Eric Goodhart and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1975 with Business & Economics categories.
Modelling And Forecasing The Yield Curve Under Model Uncertainty
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Author : Paola Donati
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Modelling And Forecasing The Yield Curve Under Model Uncertainty written by Paola Donati and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with categories.
Developments In Macro Finance Yield Curve Modelling
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Author : Jagjit S. Chadha
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2014-02-06
Developments In Macro Finance Yield Curve Modelling written by Jagjit S. Chadha and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-02-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Changes in the shape of the yield curve have traditionally been one of the key macroeconomic indicators of a likely change in economic outlook. However, the recent financial crises have created a challenge to the management of monetary policy, demanding a revision in the way that policymakers model expected changes in the economy. This volume brings together central bank economists and leading academic monetary economists to propose new methods for modelling the behaviour of interest rates. Topics covered include: the analysis and extraction of expectations of future monetary policy and inflation; the analysis of the short-term dynamics of money market interest rates; the reliability of existing models in periods of extreme market volatility and how to adjust them accordingly; and the role of government debt and deficits in affecting sovereign bond yields and spreads. This book will interest financial researchers and practitioners as well as academic and central bank economists.
Endogenous Yield Curve Risk From Central Bank Policy Uncertainty
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Author : Vineer Bhansali
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Endogenous Yield Curve Risk From Central Bank Policy Uncertainty written by Vineer Bhansali and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
Due to economic feedback the actual risk in bonds from changes in Federal Reserve policy should generally be smaller than measured using conventional duration measures. We introduce the notion of Federal Reserve policy durations. For example, target inflation duration, which measures the change in the price of a treasury bond that arises from a change in Central Bank target inflation rate that occurs at some time in the future before the maturity of the bond. For Central Banks following a policy setting rule such as a Taylor rule, we derive a simple analytic expression for the target inflation duration of zero coupon Treasury bonds in terms of model economic parameters and the parameters in the Taylor rule. The correction to the traditional duration of a zero coupon bond is proportional, at leading order, to the product of three terms: the Taylor rule output gap coefficient, the coefficient in the economy that determines the response of the output gap to the real rate, and the square of the maturity of the zero coupon bond.
Modelling And Forecasting The Yield Curve Under Model Uncertainty
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Author : Paola Donati
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2008
Modelling And Forecasting The Yield Curve Under Model Uncertainty written by Paola Donati and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008 with Economic forecasting categories.
Uncertain Futures
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Author : Jens Beckert
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2018-07-12
Uncertain Futures written by Jens Beckert and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-07-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics.
Expectations Uncertainty And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates
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Author : J. C. Dodds
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1974
Expectations Uncertainty And The Term Structure Of Interest Rates written by J. C. Dodds and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1974 with Business & Economics categories.
Investment Under Uncertainty
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Author : Avinash K. Dixit
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 1994
Investment Under Uncertainty written by Avinash K. Dixit and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Business & Economics categories.
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
