A New Heuristic Measure Of Fragility And Tail Risks
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A New Heuristic Measure Of Fragility And Tail Risks
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Author : Mr.Nassim N. Taleb
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-08-01
A New Heuristic Measure Of Fragility And Tail Risks written by Mr.Nassim N. Taleb and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.
Modifications To The Current List Of Financial Soundness Indicators
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-11-14
Modifications To The Current List Of Financial Soundness Indicators written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-14 with Business & Economics categories.
The purpose of this paper is to inform Executive Directors on the outcomes of consultations conducted by the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) on revising the current list of FSIs in response to the global financial crisis and the adoption of a new regulatory framework under the Basel III Accord. In addition, the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative calls on the IMF to review the FSI list (Recommendation no. 2). STA has undertaken these consultations in close collaboration with a broad-based group of national and international experts, international standard setting bodies, IMF’s relevant departments and all FSI-reporting countries and concerned international organizations
Antifragile
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Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
language : en
Publisher: Penguin UK
Release Date : 2012-11-27
Antifragile written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and has been published by Penguin UK this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-11-27 with Business & Economics categories.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world. Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls antifragile are things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Here Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary. The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What's more, the antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events. Why is the city-state better than the nation-state, why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call "efficient" not efficient at all? Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak? Why should you write your resignation letter before starting on the job? How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives? The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems and medicine, drawing on modern street wisdom and ancient sources. Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. Erudite, witty, and iconoclastic, Taleb's message is revolutionary: the antifragile, and only the antifragile, will make it. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to problems of uncertainty, probability, and knowledge and has led three careers around this focus, as a businessman-trader, a philosophical essayist, and an academic researcher. Although he now spends most of his time working in intense seclusion in his study, in the manner of independent scholars, he is currently Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University's Polytechnic Institute. His main subject matter is "decision making under opacity," that is, a map and a protocol on how we should live in a world we don't understand. His books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in thirty-three languages. Taleb believes that prizes, honorary degrees, awards, and ceremonialism debase knowledge by turning it into a spectator sport.
The Oxford Handbook Of Megaproject Management
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Author : Bent Flyvbjerg
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2017
The Oxford Handbook Of Megaproject Management written by Bent Flyvbjerg and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Business & Economics categories.
This handbook provides state-of-the-art scholarship in the emerging field of megaproject management. The 25 chapters cover all aspects of megaproject management, from front-end planning to actual project delivery, including how to deal with stakeholders, risk, finance, complexity, innovation, governance, ethics, project breakdowns, and scale itself.
Goals Based Portfolio Theory
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Author : Franklin J. Parker
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2022-11-29
Goals Based Portfolio Theory written by Franklin J. Parker and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-11-29 with Business & Economics categories.
An in-depth overview of investing in the real world In Goals-Based Portfolio Theory, award-winning Chartered Financial Analyst® Franklin J. Parker delivers an insightful and eye-opening discussion of how real people can navigate the financial jungle and achieve their financial goals. The book accepts the reality that the typical investor has specific funding requirements within specified periods of time and a limited amount of wealth to dedicate to those objectives. It then works within those limits to show you how to build an investment portfolio that maximizes the possibility you’ll achieve your goals, as well as how to manage the tradeoffs between your goals. In the book, you’ll find: Strategies for incorporating taxation and rebalancing into a goals-based portfolio A discussion of the major non-financial risks faced by people engaged in private wealth management An incisive prediction of what the future of wealth management and investment management may look like An indispensable exploration of investing as it actually works in the real world for real people, Goals-Based Portfolio Theory belongs in the library of all investors and their advisors who want to maximize the chances of meeting financial goals.
Incerto 4 Book Bundle
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Author : Nassim Nicholas Taleb
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2016-01-26
Incerto 4 Book Bundle written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.
Extremes
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Author : Duncan Needham
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2019-03-07
Extremes written by Duncan Needham and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Essays by leading intellectuals and public figures explore extreme events, environments, and achievements.
Why Are The G 20 Data Gaps Initiative And The Sdds Plus Relevant For Financial Stability Analysis
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Author : Mr.Robert M. Heath
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-01-11
Why Are The G 20 Data Gaps Initiative And The Sdds Plus Relevant For Financial Stability Analysis written by Mr.Robert M. Heath and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-01-11 with Business & Economics categories.
In the wake of the recent global crisis the international community is giving an increased focus on stability of the financial system, so-called financial stability analysis. With the increasing need for data sets to undertake this analysis, the question naturally arises as to what types of data are needed? While various data initiatives are underway, two initiatives at the forefront are: (1) the IMF/FSB G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI) created by the international statistical community and endorsed by the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors as well as the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee, and (2) the new Special Data Dissemination Standard Plus (SDDS Plus), aimed particularly at economies with systemically important financial sectors. This paper explains the relevance of the DGI for financial stability analysis and the close link with the SDDS Plus. The importance of the SDDS Plus in promoting the dissemination to the public of a core set of data for financial stability analysis is emphasized.
The Global Financial Crisis And Its Aftermath
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Author : A.G. Malliaris
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 2016-09-16
The Global Financial Crisis And Its Aftermath written by A.G. Malliaris and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-16 with Political Science categories.
In The Global Financial Crisis, contributors argue that the complexity of the Global Financial Crisis challenges researchers to offer more comprehensive explanations by extending the scope and range of their traditional investigations. To achieve this, the volume views the financial crisis simultaneously through three different lenses---economic, psychological, and social values. Contributors offer a constructive methodology suitable for exploring financial crises. They recognize how current economic analysis did not prepare academic economists, business economists, traders, and regulators to anticipate economic and financial crises. So, they search more extensively within the broader discipline of economics for ideas related to crises but neglected perhaps because they were not mathematically rigorous. They affirm that the complexity of financial crises necessitates complementary research. Thus, to put the focal purpose of this book differently, they explore the Global Financial Crisis from three interconnected frameworks: the standards of orthodox economic analysis, Minskyan economics, and the role of ideas and values in economics. Values are the subject of both philosophy and psychology and can contribute to a better understanding of the Global Financial Crisis. Values, in general, have been relatively neglected by economists. This is not because there is doubt about their significance, but rather because welfare economics and collective choice still operate within the neoclassical paradigm. This volume argues that analyzing the value implications requires moving from the neoclassical framework to something that is broader and multidisciplinary.
Succeeding With Ai
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Author : Veljko Krunic
language : en
Publisher: Manning Publications
Release Date : 2020-03-31
Succeeding With Ai written by Veljko Krunic and has been published by Manning Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-03-31 with Business & Economics categories.
Summary Companies small and large are initiating AI projects, investing vast sums of money on software, developers, and data scientists. Too often, these AI projects focus on technology at the expense of actionable or tangible business results, resulting in scattershot results and wasted investment. Succeeding with AI sets out a blueprint for AI projects to ensure they are predictable, successful, and profitable. It’s filled with practical techniques for running data science programs that ensure they’re cost effective and focused on the right business goals. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the technology Succeeding with AI requires talent, tools, and money. So why do many well-funded, state-of-the-art projects fail to deliver meaningful business value? Because talent, tools, and money aren’t enough: You also need to know how to ask the right questions. In this unique book, AI consultant Veljko Krunic reveals a tested process to start AI projects right, so you’ll get the results you want. About the book Succeeding with AI sets out a framework for planning and running cost-effective, reliable AI projects that produce real business results. This practical guide reveals secrets forged during the author’s experience with dozens of startups, established businesses, and Fortune 500 giants that will help you establish meaningful, achievable goals. In it you’ll master a repeatable process to maximize the return on data-scientist hours and learn to implement effectiveness metrics for keeping projects on track and resistant to calcification. What's inside Where to invest for maximum payoff How AI projects are different from other software projects Catching early warnings in time to correct course Exercises and examples based on real-world business dilemmas About the reader For project and business leadership, result-focused data scientists, and engineering teams. No AI knowledge required. About the author Veljko Krunic is a data science consultant, has a computer science PhD, and is a certified Six Sigma Master Black Belt. Table of Contents: 1. Introduction 2. How to use AI in your business 3. Choosing your first AI project 4. Linking business and technology 5. What is an ML pipeline, and how does it affect an AI project? 6. Analyzing an ML pipeline 7. Guiding an AI project to success 8. AI trends that may affect you