A Possible Approach To Fiscal Rules In Small Islands Incorporating Natural Disasters And Climate Change
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A Possible Approach To Fiscal Rules In Small Islands Incorporating Natural Disasters And Climate Change
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Author : Ryota Nakatani
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-06
A Possible Approach To Fiscal Rules In Small Islands Incorporating Natural Disasters And Climate Change written by Ryota Nakatani and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-06 with Business & Economics categories.
A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants. The question that arises is how should small developing countries formulate a fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when prone to various shocks? We study how natural disasters affect long-term debt dynamics and propose fiscal policy rules that could help insulate the economy from such unexpected shocks. We propose fiscal rules to address these shocks and uncertainties using the example of Papua New Guinea. Our study finds the advantages of expenditure rules, especially a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and budget balance targets with expected disaster shocks. This paper contributes to the literature and policy dialogue by theoretically analyzing the impact of natural disasters on debt sustainability and proposing fiscal rules against natural disasters and climate changes. Our fiscal policy framework is practically applicable for many developing countries facing increasing frequency and impact of natural disasters and climate change. Our rules-based fiscal framework is crucial for sustainable and countercyclical macroeconomic policies to build resilience against devastating natural hazards.
Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience To Natural Disasters And Climate Change In The Small States Of The Pacific
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Author : Ezequiel Cabezon
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-06-19
Enhancing Macroeconomic Resilience To Natural Disasters And Climate Change In The Small States Of The Pacific written by Ezequiel Cabezon and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-19 with Nature categories.
Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.
Calibrating Fiscal Rules
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Author : Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-07-31
Calibrating Fiscal Rules written by Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-31 with Business & Economics categories.
This technical note assesses how large shocks from natural disasters are key source of vulnerabilities for public finances. It extends the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department calibration toolkit by developing a methodology to calibrate fiscal rules in the event of natural disaster shocks and the possibility of implementing climate adaptation and mitigation measures. The features incorporated in this technical note would allow the calibration of a prudent medium-term fiscal anchor as well as annual budgetary limits that ensure the sustainability of public finances. The note is accompanied by a set of toolkits that provides instructions on calibrating a medium-term debt anchor and corresponding operational rules in the presence of natural disaster risks, accounting for climate investment and other mitigation mechanisms.
Small States Resilience To Natural Disasters And Climate Change Role For The Imf
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-07-11
Small States Resilience To Natural Disasters And Climate Change Role For The Imf written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-07-11 with Nature categories.
Small developing states are disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP—more than four times that for larger countries. This reflects a higher frequency of disasters, adjusted for land area, as well as greater vulnerability to severe disasters. About 9 percent of disasters in small states involve damage of more than 30 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent for larger states. Greater exposure to disasters has important macroeconomic effects on small states, resulting in lower investment, lower GDP per capita, higher poverty, and a more volatile revenue base.
The Economic Impact Of Natural Disasters In Pacific Island Countries Adaptation And Preparedness
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Author : Dongyeol Lee
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-05-10
The Economic Impact Of Natural Disasters In Pacific Island Countries Adaptation And Preparedness written by Dongyeol Lee and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-10 with Business & Economics categories.
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.
Global Waves Of Debt
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Author : M. Ayhan Kose
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-03-03
Global Waves Of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-03-03 with Business & Economics categories.
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Climate Change 2022 Impacts Adaptation And Vulnerability
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Author : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2023-06-22
Climate Change 2022 Impacts Adaptation And Vulnerability written by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-22 with Science categories.
The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment of the scientific literature relevant to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. The report recognizes the interactions of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies, and integrates across the natural, ecological, social and economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in adaptation and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together in a process called climate resilient development, which enables a liveable future for biodiversity and humankind. The IPCC is the leading body for assessing climate change science. IPCC reports are produced in comprehensive, objective and transparent ways, ensuring they reflect the full range of views in the scientific literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, and an atlas presenting observed climate change impacts and future risks from global to regional scales. Available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Nature Tourism And Ethnicity As Drivers Of De Marginalization
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Author : Stanko Pelc
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2017-08-01
Nature Tourism And Ethnicity As Drivers Of De Marginalization written by Stanko Pelc and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-01 with Science categories.
This book considers de-marginalization attesting that marginal regions have the potential for de-marginalization and are anchored in developmental terms on the following core themes: nature; tourism; ethnicity and general factors including migration. Adding to the discussion on marginality and sustainability this book contributes a number of case studies on a diverse selection of topics and regions in which these crucial issues connect. It delivers a reflection of (de)marginalizing processes in today’s globalized world where an increasing number of people, groups, societies and regions are marginalized and vulnerable not only from social and economic factors, but also from natural causes such as natural hazards. This book addresses the unsustainable practices in the past that have often generated difficult conditions for sustainable development in the future. Marginal regions that have not been developed are given much needed consideration as they may now enjoy the benefits of having not been exploited in the past to their present-day developmental advantage. The overview offered by this book is significant in that marginal regions with relatively unspoiled and attractive natural (and cultural) landscapes have a great potential for sustainable tourism. Contributions include the (de)marginalization of ethnic groups, the role of education and migration in the process, and different economic and political perspectives. Considering the topics covered, the book should be appreciated by all those involved in creation of social policies, urban and regional planning – coordinating economic with spatial and social development and by those studying in the fields were competencies for such activities are important part of the study program.
Building Resilience In Developing Countries Vulnerable To Large Natural Disasters
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-06-26
Building Resilience In Developing Countries Vulnerable To Large Natural Disasters written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-26 with Nature categories.
This paper discusses how countries vulnerable to natural disasters can reduce the associated human and economic cost. Building on earlier work by IMF staff, the paper views disaster risk management through the lens of a three-pillar strategy for building structural, financial, and post-disaster (including social) resilience. A coherent disaster resilience strategy, based on a diagnostic of risks and cost-effective responses, can provide a road map for how to tackle disaster related vulnerabilities. It can also help mobilize much-needed support from the international community.
Climate Change And Small Island States
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Author : Jon Barnett
language : en
Publisher: Earthscan
Release Date : 2010
Climate Change And Small Island States written by Jon Barnett and has been published by Earthscan this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Business & Economics categories.
Small Island Developing States are often depicted as being among the most vulnerable of all places to the effects of climate change, and they are a cause c?l?bre of many involved in climate science, politics and the media. Yet while small island developing states are much talked about, the production of both scientific knowledge and policies to protect the rights of these nations and their people has been remarkably slow.This book is the first to apply a critical approach to climate change science and policy processes in the South Pacific region. It shows how groups within politically and scientifically powerful countries appropriate the issue of island vulnerability in ways that do not do justice to the lives of island people. It argues that the ways in which islands and their inhabitants are represented in climate science and politics seldom leads to meaningful responses to assist them to adapt to climate change. Throughout, the authors focus on the hitherto largely ignored social impacts of climate change, and demonstrate that adaptation and mitigation policies cannot be effective without understanding the social systems and values of island societies.