A Quarterly Projection Model For Tonga

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A Quarterly Projection Model For Tonga

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Author : Mr. Sam Ouliaris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-06-20

A Quarterly Projection Model For Tonga written by Mr. Sam Ouliaris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-06-20 with categories.

This paper customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. The model is calibrated to embody the specific attributes of the Tongan economy such as the persistence of domestic output, core inflation and interest rates, as well as Tonga’s monetary policy transmission. It is then used to study three scenarios and assess their impact on the baseline. The first scenario involves shocks proxying for a bank failure. The second scenario introduces shocks that simulate the consequences of a natural disaster. Finally, the third scenario introduces shocks that represent a significant negative external shock on Tonga. These shocks were chosen to reflect the sensitivity of Tonga to adverse financial shocks, to their trading partners’ macroeconomic policies, and to extreme weather events.

Nowcasting Real Gdp In Samoa

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Author : Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-05-16

Nowcasting Real Gdp In Samoa written by Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-05-16 with categories.

This paper describes the recent work to strengthen the nowcasting capacity at the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS). It compiles available high-frequency datasets such as tourism receipts, agriculture market survey, remittances, among others, to nowcast real GDP in Samoa. Nowcasting enables the estimation of the present and near-term forecast. It employs standard nowcasting methods such as Bridge, Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS), and Unrestricted MIDAS (U-MIDAS). All methods significantly outperform the naive forecasts. Our analysis show that forecast combination of the three methods minimizes the root mean squared error (RMSE) for both full and pre-COVID-19 samples, while U-MIDAS performs better during crises, particularly in identifying turning points during the COVID-19 pandemic. Strengthening nowcasting capacity is important for Samoa, where real GDP data release experiences up to a 90-day lag.

Tonga

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2025-06-18

Tonga written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2025-06-18 with categories.

The IMF conducted a Technical Assistance mission to assist the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) in modernizing its monetary policy framework. The mission aimed to address persistent challenges such as excess liquidity and an inactive interbank market, which have impeded effective monetary policy transmission. The mission is significant as it builds on previous IMF assistance and addresses key vulnerabilities in Tonga's monetary policy framework. The mission also aligns with ongoing Fund surveillance and program priorities. The mission found that the effectiveness of Tonga's monetary policy framework is constrained by gaps in both the institutional arrangements and the calibration of NRBT’s monetary policy actions. In this context, the mission focused on developing a modernized market-based monetary operational framework that enables active liquidity management and the alignment of short-term money market rates with the NRBT policy rate. The mission also focused on improving collateral policies (for liquidity providing monetary policy operations) and strengthening NRBT communications as key complementary tools. To this end, innovative tools were applied, such as Large Language models to assess NRBT communications, and the provision of collateral haircut methodologies to improve risk management. The mission recommended a gradual modernization process focusing on two main workstreams: developing the NRBT’s analytical capacity to assess the monetary policy stance and enhancing its operational capacity to align money market rates with the desired policy stance. This involves transitioning to a mid-rate interest rate corridor with regular open market operations supported by adequate standing facilities, and a robust liquidity monitoring and forecasting framework.

Resilience And Growth In The Small States Of The Pacific

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Author : Hoe Ee Khor
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-08-10

Resilience And Growth In The Small States Of The Pacific written by Hoe Ee Khor and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-10 with Business & Economics categories.

Pacific island countries face unique challenges to realizing their growth potential and raising living standards. This book discusses ongoing challenges facing Pacific island countries and policy options to address them. Regional cooperation and solutions tailored to their unique challenges, as well as further integration with the Asia and Pacific region will each play a role. With concerted efforts, Pacific island countries can boost potential growth, increase resilience, and improve the welfare of their citizens.

Tonga

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-11-03

Tonga written by International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-11-03 with Business & Economics categories.

The Tongan economy is performing strongly, underpinned by resilient remittance inflows and major reconstruction activities following the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai (HTHH) volcanic eruption in January 2022. However, supply-side constraints resulting from severe labor shortages and damaged tourism facilities are impeding the recovery and have intensified inflation pressures. In this context, the authorities are confronting a challenging tradeoff between supporting reconstruction and managing inflation in the short term. In the long term, Tonga's high vulnerability to natural disasters complicates its efforts to create the fiscal space necessary to finance development spending.

Short Term Energy Outlook

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1999

Short Term Energy Outlook written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1999 with Power resources categories.

Country Report

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994

Country Report written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Economic forecasting categories.

The Foreign Quarterly Review

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1862

The Foreign Quarterly Review written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1862 with categories.

Air University Quarterly Review

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1977

Air University Quarterly Review written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1977 with Aeronautics categories.

Global Commodity Prices Monetary Transmission And Exchange Rate Pass Through In The Pacific Islands

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Author : Mr.Shanaka J. Peiris
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-07-01

Global Commodity Prices Monetary Transmission And Exchange Rate Pass Through In The Pacific Islands written by Mr.Shanaka J. Peiris and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-07-01 with Business & Economics categories.

Pacific Islands countries are vulnerable to commodity price shocks, and this poses challenges to monetary policy. The high degree of exchange rate pass-through to headline inflation and the weak monetary transmission mechanism in PICs suggest a greater efficacy of exchange rate changes in affecting inflation rather than monetary policy. To assess the tradeoff between the use of the exchange rate and monetary policy in macroeconomic stabilization, we employ a model-based approach to examine the optimal policy in response to the historical distribution of exogenous shocks in a Pacific Island (Tonga). The empirical evidence and model simulations tilt in the favor of exchange rate policy given the close relationship between exchange rate changes and headline inflation and the low interest rate sensitivity of aggregate demand.