Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-08-29
Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-08-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Whether we like it or not we all feel that the world is uncertain. From choosing a new technology to selecting a job, we rarely know in advance what outcome will result from our decisions. Unfortunately, the standard theory of choice under uncertainty developed in the early forties and fifties turns out to be too rigid to take many tricky issues of choice under uncertainty into account. The good news is that we have now moved away from the early descriptively inadequate modeling of behavior. This book brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the most recent contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. It also introduces the reader into the many subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Mohammed Abdellaoui
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-09-17
Advances In Decision Making Under Risk And Uncertainty written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-09-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Brings the reader into contact with the accomplished progress in individual decision making through the contributions to uncertainty modeling and behavioral decision making. This work also introduces the reader to the subtle issues to be resolved for rational choice under uncertainty.
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment Risk Management And Decision Making
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Author : V.T. Covello
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-08
Uncertainty In Risk Assessment Risk Management And Decision Making written by V.T. Covello and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-08 with Technology & Engineering categories.
The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists,psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.
Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Donald J. Brown
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-12-18
Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Donald J. Brown and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-12-18 with Business & Economics categories.
This book is an exploration of the ubiquity of ambiguity in decision-making under uncertainty. It presents various essays on behavioral economics and behavioral finance that draw on the theory of Black Swans (Taleb 2010), which argues for a distinction between unprecedented events in our past and unpredictable events in our future. The defining property of Black Swan random events is that they are unpredictable, i.e., highly unlikely random events. In this text, Mandelbrot’s (1972) operational definition of risky random unpredictable events is extended to Black Swan assets – assets for which the cumulative probability distribution or conditional probability distribution of random future asset returns is a power distribution. Ambiguous assets are assets for which the uncertainties of future returns are not risks. Consequently, there are two disjoint classes of Black Swan assets: Risky Black Swan assets and Ambiguous Black Swan assets, a new class of ambiguous assets with unpredictable random future outcomes. The text is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on affective moods, introduces affective utility functions and discusses the ambiguity of Black Swans. The second part, which shifts the spotlight to affective equilibrium in asset markets, features chapters on affective portfolio analysis and Walrasian and Gorman Polar Form Equilibrium Inequalities. In order to gain the most from the book, readers should have completed the standard introductory graduate courses on microeconomics, behavioral finance, and convex optimization. The book is intended for advanced undergraduates, graduate students and post docs specializing in economic theory, experimental economics, finance, mathematics, computer science or data analysis.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2015-07-24
Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-07-24 with Computers categories.
An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Managing Risk And Uncertainty
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Author : Richard Friberg
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2015-11-13
Managing Risk And Uncertainty written by Richard Friberg and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-13 with Business & Economics categories.
A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields. This book offers a framework for making decisions under risk and uncertainty. Synthesizing research from economics, finance, decision theory, management, and other fields, the book provides a set of tools and a way of thinking that determines the relative merits of different strategies. It takes as its premise that we make better decisions if we use the whole toolkit of economics and related fields to inform our decision making. The text explores the distinction between risk and uncertainty and covers standard models of decision making under risk as well as more recent work on decision making under uncertainty, with a particular focus on strategic interaction. It also examines the implications of incomplete markets for managing under uncertainty. It presents four core strategies: a benchmark strategy (proceeding as if risk and uncertainty were low), a financial hedging strategy (valuable if there is much risk), an operational hedging strategy (valuable for conditions of much uncertainty), and a flexible strategy (valuable if there is much risk and/or uncertainty). The book then examines various aspects of these strategies in greater depth, building on empirical work in several different fields. Topics include price-setting, real options and Monte Carlo techniques, organizational structure, and behavioral biases. Many chapters include exercises and appendixes with additional material. The book can be used in graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in risk management, as a guide for researchers, or as a reference for management practitioners.
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
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Author : Kerstin Preuschoff
language : en
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Release Date : 2015-06-16
Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Kerstin Preuschoff and has been published by Frontiers Media SA this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-16 with Biological psychiatry categories.
Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.
Advanced Models And Tools For Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty And Risk Contexts
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Author : González-Prida, Vicente
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2020-09-04
Advanced Models And Tools For Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty And Risk Contexts written by González-Prida, Vicente and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-09-04 with Business & Economics categories.
Business industries depend on advanced models and tools that provide an optimal and objective decision-making process, ultimately guaranteeing improved competitiveness, reducing risk, and eliminating uncertainty. Thanks in part to the digital era of the modern world, reducing these conditions has become much more manageable. Advanced Models and Tools for Effective Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Risk Contexts provides research exploring the theoretical and practical aspects of effective decision making based not only on mathematical techniques, but also on those technological tools that are available nowadays in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Featuring coverage on a broad range of topics such as industrial informatics, knowledge management, and production planning, this book is ideally designed for decision makers, researchers, engineers, academicians, and students.
Advanced Optimization And Decision Making Techniques In Textile Manufacturing
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Author : Anindya Ghosh
language : en
Publisher: CRC Press
Release Date : 2019-03-18
Advanced Optimization And Decision Making Techniques In Textile Manufacturing written by Anindya Ghosh and has been published by CRC Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-03-18 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Optimization and decision making are integral parts of any manufacturing process and management system. The objective of this book is to demonstrate the confluence of theory and applications of various types of multi-criteria decision making and optimization techniques with reference to textile manufacturing and management. Divided into twelve chapters, it discusses various multi-criteria decision-making methods such as AHP, TOPSIS, ELECTRE, and optimization techniques like linear programming, fuzzy linear programming, quadratic programming, in textile domain. Multi-objective optimization problems have been dealt with two approaches, namely desirability function and evolutionary algorithm. Key Features Exclusive title covering textiles and soft computing fields including optimization and decision making Discusses concepts of traditional and non-traditional optimization methods with textile examples Explores pertinent single-objective and multi-objective optimizations Provides MATLAB coding in the Appendix to solve various types of multi-criteria decision making and optimization problems Includes examples and case studies related to textile engineering and management
Rethinking Enterprise Risk Management
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Author : Halis Kıral
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2024-12-17
Rethinking Enterprise Risk Management written by Halis Kıral and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-17 with Business & Economics categories.
This book provides a critical analysis of existing enterprise risk management models and practices and proposes innovative solutions to address the challenges associated with implementing enterprise risk management strategies. Enterprise risk management activities are not high on the priority agenda of the senior management in both public and private sectors. Conceptual ambiguity and methodological gaps in current standards and frameworks make it difficult to effectively implement enterprise risk management. Therefore, this book’s approach to enterprise risk management aims to eliminate the unit-based silo approach of traditional risk management, adopting a function-based silo approach. It focuses on the management of fewer and more significant risks associated with high-level objectives, rather than all business processes of the organization, thus increasing the success of enterprise risk management implementation. The book would be a valuable read for business executives, internal and external auditors, business school students and academics.