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An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Of The Jordanian Economy


An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Of The Jordanian Economy
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An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Of The Jordanian Economy


An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Of The Jordanian Economy
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Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-02-01

An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model Of The Jordanian Economy written by Samya Beidas-Strom and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-02-01 with Business & Economics categories.


This paper presents and estimates a small open economy dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model (DSGE) for the Jordanian economy. The model features nominal and real rigidities, imperfect competition and habit formation in the consumer’s utility function. Oil imports are explicitly modeled in the consumption basket and domestic production. Bayesian estimation methods are employed on quarterly Jordanian data. The model’s properties are described by impulse response analysis of identified structural shocks pertinent to the economy. These properties assess the effectiveness of the pegged exchange rate regime in minimizing inflation and output trade-offs. The estimates of the structural parameters fall within plausible ranges, and simulation results suggest that while the peg amplifies output, consumption and (price and wage) inflation volatility, it offers a relatively low risk premium.



The Eu Jordan Free Trade Agreement


The Eu Jordan Free Trade Agreement
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Author : Omar Feraboli
language : en
Publisher: VDM Publishing
Release Date : 2007

The Eu Jordan Free Trade Agreement written by Omar Feraboli and has been published by VDM Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Business & Economics categories.


The Association Agrement between Jordan and the EU entered into force in 2002. It is part of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, a process of economic and political integration involving the EU and countries in the MENA region. This books analyses the impacts on the Jordanian economy of the free-trade agreement with the EU, with emphasis on welfare and income distribution. The effects of trade liberalisation are assessed together with parallel and complementary economic reforms, aiming at countacting the fall in government revenue due to the reduction in the import duty rates. In order to capture the economic interactions and the intertemporal effects, the analyis is conducted by using a dynamic CGE model. The approach used in this work is the first one analysing income distribution in a CGE framework in which heterogeneous households are assumed to have different discount rates. The simulation results show that, although the free-trade arrangement with the EU affects positively aggregate welfare in Jordan, it also has different effects on Jordanian heterogenous households and it causes increasing income disparity. This work hopes therefore to provide both theoretical insights and useful policy implications.



Technology Shocks And Aggregate Fluctuations


Technology Shocks And Aggregate Fluctuations
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Author : Mr.Pau Rabanal
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2004-12-01

Technology Shocks And Aggregate Fluctuations written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2004-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.


Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.



Assessing Dsge Models With Capital Accumulation And Indeterminacy


Assessing Dsge Models With Capital Accumulation And Indeterminacy
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Author : Mr.Vadim Khramov
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-03-01

Assessing Dsge Models With Capital Accumulation And Indeterminacy written by Mr.Vadim Khramov and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.


The simulated results of this paper show that New Keynesian DSGE models with capital accumulation can generate substantial persistencies in the dynamics of the main economic variables, due to the stock nature of capital. Empirical estimates on U.S. data from 1960:I to 2008:I show the response of monetary policy to inflation was almost twice lower than traditionally considered, as capital accumulation creates an additional channel of influence through real interest rates in the production sector. Versions of the model with indeterminacy empirically outperform determinate versions. This paper allows for the reconsideration of previous findings and has significant monetary policy implications.



Jordan


Jordan
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2010-09-20

Jordan written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-20 with Business & Economics categories.


The economy of Jordan was affected by the global crisis. Lower commodity prices helped improve Jordan’s external position. Effective banking supervision has strengthened the capacity of Jordanian banks to withstand shocks. The authorities have implemented prudent fiscal and monetary policies. The medium-term fiscal strategy should be supported by a number of institutional reforms. The fixed exchange rate regime remains important for financial stability. Bank regulation and supervision should continue to focus on preventing excessive risk-taking.



Macroeconomic Effects Of Reforms On Three Diverse Oil Exporters Russia Saudi Arabia And The Uk


Macroeconomic Effects Of Reforms On Three Diverse Oil Exporters Russia Saudi Arabia And The Uk
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Author : Samya Beidas-Strom
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-10-11

Macroeconomic Effects Of Reforms On Three Diverse Oil Exporters Russia Saudi Arabia And The Uk written by Samya Beidas-Strom and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-11 with Business & Economics categories.


We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.



Oil Prices External Income And Growth


Oil Prices External Income And Growth
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Author : Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2011-12-01

Oil Prices External Income And Growth written by Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.


This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labor exporting country that receives large inflows of external income?the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers?from major oil-exporting economies. The theoretical model predicts real oil prices to be one of the main long-run drivers of real output. Using quarterly data between 1979 and 2009 on core macroeconomic variables for Jordan and a number of key foreign variables, we identify two long-run relationships: an output equation as predicted by theory and an equation linking foreign and domestic inflation rates. It is shown that real output in the long run is shaped by: (i) oil prices through their impact on external income and in turn on capital accumulation, and (ii) technological transfers through foreign output. The empirical analysis of the paper confirms the hypothesis that a large share of Jordan's output volatility can be associated with fluctuations in net income received from abroad. External factors, however, cannot be relied upon to provide similar growth stimuli in the future, and therefore it will be important to diversify the sources of growth in order to achieve a high and sustained level of income.



Regional Integration And Policy Challenges In Africa


Regional Integration And Policy Challenges In Africa
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Author : A. Elhiraika
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2016-01-26

Regional Integration And Policy Challenges In Africa written by A. Elhiraika and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-26 with Business & Economics categories.


The role of integration as a catalyst for economic growth, development and insulation from global shocks has made the concept of regional integration even more attractive to states. This books contains compelling arguments and empirical observations that detail some of the key opportunities governments in Africa are pursuing.



How Loose How Tight A Measure Of Monetary And Fiscal Stance For The Euro Area


How Loose How Tight A Measure Of Monetary And Fiscal Stance For The Euro Area
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Author : Nicoletta Batini
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-06-05

How Loose How Tight A Measure Of Monetary And Fiscal Stance For The Euro Area written by Nicoletta Batini and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-05 with Business & Economics categories.


This paper builds a model-based dynamic monetary and fiscal conditions index (DMFCI) and uses it to examine the evolution of the joint stance of monetary and fiscal policies in the euro area (EA) and in its three largest member countries over the period 2007-2018. The index is based on the relative impacts of monetary and fiscal policy on demand using actual and simulated data from rich estimated models featuring also financial intermediaries and long-term government debt. The analysis highlights a short-lived fiscal expansion in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, followed by a quick tightening, with monetary policy left to be the “only game in town” after 2013. Individual countries’ DMFCIs show that national policy stances did not always mirror the evolution of the aggregate stance at the EA level, due to heterogeneity in the fiscal stance.



Hysteresis And Business Cycles


Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29

Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.


Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.