Analysis And Approximation Of Rare Events

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Analysis And Approximation Of Rare Events

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Author : Amarjit Budhiraja
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2019-08-10

Analysis And Approximation Of Rare Events written by Amarjit Budhiraja and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-08-10 with Mathematics categories.

This book presents broadly applicable methods for the large deviation and moderate deviation analysis of discrete and continuous time stochastic systems. A feature of the book is the systematic use of variational representations for quantities of interest such as normalized logarithms of probabilities and expected values. By characterizing a large deviation principle in terms of Laplace asymptotics, one converts the proof of large deviation limits into the convergence of variational representations. These features are illustrated though their application to a broad range of discrete and continuous time models, including stochastic partial differential equations, processes with discontinuous statistics, occupancy models, and many others. The tools used in the large deviation analysis also turn out to be useful in understanding Monte Carlo schemes for the numerical approximation of the same probabilities and expected values. This connection is illustrated through the design and analysis of importance sampling and splitting schemes for rare event estimation. The book assumes a solid background in weak convergence of probability measures and stochastic analysis, and is suitable for advanced graduate students, postdocs and researchers.

A Weak Convergence Approach To The Theory Of Large Deviations

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Author : Paul Dupuis
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2011-09-09

A Weak Convergence Approach To The Theory Of Large Deviations written by Paul Dupuis and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-09-09 with Mathematics categories.

Applies the well-developed tools of the theory of weak convergenceof probability measures to large deviation analysis--a consistentnew approach The theory of large deviations, one of the most dynamic topics inprobability today, studies rare events in stochastic systems. Thenonlinear nature of the theory contributes both to its richness anddifficulty. This innovative text demonstrates how to employ thewell-established linear techniques of weak convergence theory toprove large deviation results. Beginning with a step-by-stepdevelopment of the approach, the book skillfully guides readersthrough models of increasing complexity covering a wide variety ofrandom variable-level and process-level problems. Representationformulas for large deviation-type expectations are a key tool andare developed systematically for discrete-time problems. Accessible to anyone who has a knowledge of measure theory andmeasure-theoretic probability, A Weak Convergence Approach to theTheory of Large Deviations is important reading for both studentsand researchers.

Introduction To Rare Event Simulation

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Author : James Bucklew
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09

Introduction To Rare Event Simulation written by James Bucklew and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Mathematics categories.

This book is an attempt to present a unified theory of rare event simulation and the variance reduction technique known as importance sampling from the point of view of the probabilistic theory of large deviations. This framework allows us to view a vast assortment of simulation problems from a single unified perspective. It gives a great deal of insight into the fundamental nature of rare event simulation. Unfortunately, this area has a reputation among simulation practitioners of requiring a great deal of technical and probabilistic expertise. In this text, I have tried to keep the mathematical preliminaries to a minimum; the only prerequisite is a single large deviation theorem dealing with sequences of Rd valued random variables. (This theorem and a proof are given in the text.) Large deviation theory is a burgeoning area of probability theory and many of the results in it can be applied to simulation problems. Rather than try to be as complete as possible in the exposition of all possible aspects of the available theory, I have tried to concentrate on demonstrating the methodology and the principal ideas in a fairly simple setting. Madison, Wisconsin 2003 James Antonio Bucklew Contents 1. Random Number Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 . . . . . . . . 1.1 Uniform Generators. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Nonuniform Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.2.1 The Inversion Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1.2.2 The Acceptance---Rejection Method . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 . . . . . 1.3 Discrete Distributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1 Inversion by Truncation of a ContinuousAnalog. . . . . . 14 1.3.2 Acceptance---Rejection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 . . . . . . . . .

Reaction Rate Theory And Rare Events

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Author : Baron Peters
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2017-03-22

Reaction Rate Theory And Rare Events written by Baron Peters and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-03-22 with Technology & Engineering categories.

Reaction Rate Theory and Rare Events bridges the historical gap between these subjects because the increasingly multidisciplinary nature of scientific research often requires an understanding of both reaction rate theory and the theory of other rare events. The book discusses collision theory, transition state theory, RRKM theory, catalysis, diffusion limited kinetics, mean first passage times, Kramers theory, Grote-Hynes theory, transition path theory, non-adiabatic reactions, electron transfer, and topics from reaction network analysis. It is an essential reference for students, professors and scientists who use reaction rate theory or the theory of rare events. In addition, the book discusses transition state search algorithms, tunneling corrections, transmission coefficients, microkinetic models, kinetic Monte Carlo, transition path sampling, and importance sampling methods. The unified treatment in this book explains why chemical reactions and other rare events, while having many common theoretical foundations, often require very different computational modeling strategies. - Offers an integrated approach to all simulation theories and reaction network analysis, a unique approach not found elsewhere - Gives algorithms in pseudocode for using molecular simulation and computational chemistry methods in studies of rare events - Uses graphics and explicit examples to explain concepts - Includes problem sets developed and tested in a course range from pen-and-paper theoretical problems, to computational exercises

Switching Processes In Queueing Models

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Author : Vladimir Anisimov
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2013-03-01

Switching Processes In Queueing Models written by Vladimir Anisimov and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-01 with Mathematics categories.

Switching processes, invented by the author in 1977, is the main tool used in the investigation of traffic problems from automotive to telecommunications. The title provides a new approach to low traffic problems based on the analysis of flows of rare events and queuing models. In the case of fast switching, averaging principle and diffusion approximation results are proved and applied to the investigation of transient phenomena for wide classes of overloading queuing networks. The book is devoted to developing the asymptotic theory for the class of switching queuing models which covers models in a Markov or semi-Markov environment, models under the influence of flows of external or internal perturbations, unreliable and hierarchic networks, etc.

Guidelines For Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis

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Author : CCPS (Center for Chemical Process Safety)
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2010-08-27

Guidelines For Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis written by CCPS (Center for Chemical Process Safety) and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-08-27 with Technology & Engineering categories.

Chemical process quantitative risk analysis (CPQRA) as applied to the CPI was first fully described in the first edition of this CCPS Guidelines book. This second edition is packed with information reflecting advances in this evolving methodology, and includes worked examples on a CD-ROM. CPQRA is used to identify incident scenarios and evaluate their risk by defining the probability of failure, the various consequences and the potential impact of those consequences. It is an invaluable methodology to evaluate these when qualitative analysis cannot provide adequate understanding and when more information is needed for risk management. This technique provides a means to evaluate acute hazards and alternative risk reduction strategies, and identify areas for cost-effective risk reduction. There are no simple answers when complex issues are concerned, but CPQRA2 offers a cogent, well-illustrated guide to applying these risk-analysis techniques, particularly to risk control studies. Special Details: Includes CD-ROM with example problems worked using Excel and Quattro Pro. For use with Windows 95, 98, and NT.

Estimation Of Rare Event Probabilities In Complex Aerospace And Other Systems

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Author : Jerome Morio
language : en
Publisher: Woodhead Publishing
Release Date : 2015-11-16

Estimation Of Rare Event Probabilities In Complex Aerospace And Other Systems written by Jerome Morio and has been published by Woodhead Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-16 with Technology & Engineering categories.

Rare event probability (10-4 and less) estimation has become a large area of research in the reliability engineering and system safety domains. A significant number of methods have been proposed to reduce the computation burden for the estimation of rare events from advanced sampling approaches to extreme value theory. However, it is often difficult in practice to determine which algorithm is the most adapted to a given problem.Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems: A Practical Approach provides a broad up-to-date view of the current available techniques to estimate rare event probabilities described with a unified notation, a mathematical pseudocode to ease their potential implementation and finally a large spectrum of simulation results on academic and realistic use cases. Provides a broad overview of the practical approach of rare event methods. Includes algorithms that are applied to aerospace benchmark test cases Offers insight into practical tuning issues

Nonlinear Dynamics In Geosciences

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Author : Anastasios A. Tsonis
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2007-10-23

Nonlinear Dynamics In Geosciences written by Anastasios A. Tsonis and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-10-23 with Science categories.

This work comprises the proceedings of a conference held last year in Rhodes, Greece, to assess developments during the last 20 years in the field of nonlinear dynamics in geosciences. The volume has its own authority as part of the Aegean Conferences cycle, but it also brings together the most up-to-date research from the atmospheric sciences, hydrology, geology, and other areas of geosciences, and discusses the advances made and the future directions of nonlinear dynamics.

Sage Research Methods Foundations

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Author : Paul Anthony Atkinson
language : en
Publisher: SAGE Publications Limited
Release Date : 2021-05-05

Sage Research Methods Foundations written by Paul Anthony Atkinson and has been published by SAGE Publications Limited this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-05-05 with Social Science categories.

Recent Advances In Reliability Theory

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Author : N. Limnios
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Recent Advances In Reliability Theory written by N. Limnios and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Science categories.

Conceiving reliablesystems is a strategic issue for any industrial society. Hence, reliability has become a discipline at the beginning of the Second World War. In fact, reliability is a field of reseach common to mathematics, operational research, informatics, graph theory, physics, and so forth. We are concerned here with the mathematical side of reliability, of which probability, statistics, and more specially stochastic processes theory constitute the natural basis. US army during the war, and later in the US Problems encountered by the and Soviet space programs, have led to an awarenessofthe need for reliabilityor more generaly for dependability (a general term covering reliability, availability, security, maintainability, etc.) of the systems. The paper by W. Weibull of 1938 on the strength of materials, leading to the distribution that later took his name, and the paper by B. Epstein and M. Sobel of 1951, initiating the use of the exponential distribution as the basic (and now most used) model for reliability, are the founding papers of the field. At this time, the systems were merely seen as black boxes. During the 1960s, they began to be considered as the result of the interaction of their elements. Appropriate methods were then developed, from Shannon's work to the beautiful theory of coherent systems initiated by Z.W. Birnbaum, J.D.