Analyzing And Managing Fiscal Risks Best Practices
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Analyzing And Managing Fiscal Risks Best Practices
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-04-05
Analyzing And Managing Fiscal Risks Best Practices written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-04-05 with Business & Economics categories.
Comprehensive analysis and management of fiscal risks can help ensure sound fiscal public finances and macroeconomic stability. This has been underscored by the global financial crisis and the more recent collapse in commodity prices, which starkly illustrate the vulnerability of public finances to risk. Indeed, over the past quarter century, governments experienced on average an adverse fiscal shock of 6 percent of GDP once every 12 years, with some of the largest stemming from financial crises. Countries need a more complete understanding of these potential threats to their fiscal position. Existing fiscal risk disclosure and analysis practices tend to be incomplete, fragmented, and qualitative in nature. A more comprehensive and integrated assessment of the potential shocks to government finances, in the form of a fiscal stress test, can help policymakers simulate the effects of shocks to their central forecasts and their implications for government solvency, liquidity, and financing needs. Comprehensive, reliable, and timely fiscal data covering all public entities, stocks, and flows are a necessary foundation for such analysis. Countries should also enhance their capacity to mitigate and manage fiscal risks. Fiscal risk management practices are often blunt, ad hoc, and too focused on imposing limits on the creation of exposures. Countries need to expand their toolkits for fiscal risk management and adopt the use of instruments to transfer, share, or provision for risks. In doing so, countries need to weigh the possible benefits from reducing their exposure to shocks against the financial and other costs of the policies that may be needed. Finally, countries should make greater use of probabilistic forecasting methods when setting long-run objectives and medium-term targets for fiscal policy. The paper illustrates how simple probabilistic tools can be used to map the uncertainty around medium-term trajectories for public debt. In combination with fiscal stress tests, these tools can provide valuable information regarding the probabilities that a country will stay within the debt ceilings embedded in their fiscal rules. The Fund is playing an important role in supporting improvements in fiscal risk analysis and management among its members. This includes technical assistance in constructing public sector balance sheets; developing institutions and capacity to identify specific fiscal risks and to quantify their potential impact; undertaking fiscal stress tests; and integrating risks into the design of medium-term fiscal targets.
Fiscal Risks Sources Disclosure And Management
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-05-31
Fiscal Risks Sources Disclosure And Management written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-05-31 with Business & Economics categories.
A number of member countries have expressed interest in advice regarding disclosure and management of fiscal risks (defined as the possibility of deviations of fiscal outcomes from what was expected at the time of the budget or other forecast). This paper analyzes the main sources of fiscal risks and—building on an overview of existing practices in a wide range of countries—provides practical suggestions in this area, including a possible Statement of Fiscal Risks and a set of Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management.
Government At A Glance Western Balkans
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2020-07-07
Government At A Glance Western Balkans written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-07-07 with categories.
Government at a Glance: Western Balkans presents information on public governance in the Western Balkan region – covering Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, and compares it to OECD and OECD-EU countries.
Managing Fiscal Risks In The Middle East And North Africa
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Author : Racheeda Boukezia
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-06-11
Managing Fiscal Risks In The Middle East And North Africa written by Racheeda Boukezia and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa are exposed to significant fiscal risks. This paper analyzes the sources of these fiscal risks in 17 low- and middle-income countries in the Middle East, North Africa and Pakistan region, excluding high-income Gulf countries (MENAPEG), and discusses avenues for reform to strengthen fiscal risk management. The materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG has been driven by macroeconomic shocks, contingent liabilities, and tail-risk events. The region has a track record of volatile economic growth and sharp exchange rate movements. High dependence on hydrocarbon revenue among MENAPEG oil and gas exporters and pervasive universal subsidies generate considerable budgetary exposure to swings in commodity prices. Substantial government involvement in the economy and large state ownership of firms and banks exposes several MENAPEG countries to contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises and the financial sector. Lastly, the region’s history of social unrest and conflicts together with tail-risk events such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and natural disasters and climate change, have been important sources of fiscal risks. Many of the factors historically associated with the materialization of fiscal risks in MENAPEG countries are likely to remain sources of vulnerability in the future, raising the need for robust fiscal risk management frameworks. Policy reform can strengthen fiscal risk management in MENAPEG. This paper describes precedents where progress is made and provides a broad analytical framework for policymakers to build upon to fully embrace fiscal risk management in all its dimensions. Going forward, it is crucial for national authorities to enhance their capacity to identify, quantify, and assess risk factors and their budget’s exposure to them. This should be followed by thorough fiscal risk analysis to inform policy decisions to mitigate risks. Where risks cannot be mitigated or are judged to be acceptable, countries should consider adopting appropriate medium-term fiscal frameworks to build buffers to deal with them.
Managing Fiscal Risks From National Airlines In Pacific Island Countries
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Author : Vybhavi Balasundharam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-07-09
Managing Fiscal Risks From National Airlines In Pacific Island Countries written by Vybhavi Balasundharam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-07-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Pacific island countries (PICs) rely on national airlines for connectivity, trade, and tourism. These airlines are being struck hard by COVID-19. Losses will weigh on public sector balance sheets and pose risks to economic recovery. With a backdrop of tight fiscal space and increasing government debt, losses in airlines are adding to fiscal risks in some PICs. This paper discusses tools to evaluate and manage the fiscal risks from national airlines in the Pacific. We present a snapshot of the current state of Public Financial Management (PFM) practices in PICs and detail the best practices. This exercise would illustrate the areas in which PICs have scope to improve their risk management with regard to national airlines. We then discuss the use of diagnostic tools and capacity development to enhance monitoring and risk management. Greater transparency and accountability in the airlines, combined with rigorous oversight, would be the first step towards improved financial management of national airlines.
Improving Fiscal Transparency To Raise Government Efficiency And Reduce Corruption Vulnerabilities In Central Eastern And Southeastern Europe
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Author : Mr.Bernardin Akitoby
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-11
Improving Fiscal Transparency To Raise Government Efficiency And Reduce Corruption Vulnerabilities In Central Eastern And Southeastern Europe written by Mr.Bernardin Akitoby and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This departmental paper investigates how countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) can improve fiscal transparency, thereby raising government efficiency and reducing corruption vulnerabilities.
Fiscal Resilience To Natural Disasters Lessons From Country Experiences
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2019-05-20
Fiscal Resilience To Natural Disasters Lessons From Country Experiences written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-20 with categories.
This report presents the results of a study that compares country practices in the management of the financial implications of disasters on government finances for a set of OECD member countries and partner economies particularly exposed to natural hazards.
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2016
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Author : International Monetary Fund
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-09-26
International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2016 written by International Monetary Fund and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-09-26 with Business & Economics categories.
The year was marked by difficult challenges and milestone achievements. To reinvigorate modest growth at a time of uncertainty about a complicated global economy, the IMF membership endorsed a three-pronged approach of monetary, fiscal, and structural policies to get the world economy back on a stronger and safer growth track. Highlights of the IMF’s work during the year included entry into effect of its quota and governance reforms approved in 2010, which increase the Fund’s core resources and make it more representative of the membership; commitments for increased financial support, policy advice, expertise, and training to help low-income developing countries achieve the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals; analysis of the international monetary system; inclusion of the Chinese currency in the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right; and policy advice on the economic repercussions of mass migration of refugees from Syria and other conflict-afflicted states. The IMF Annual Report, which covers the period May 1, 2015 to April 30, 2016, discusses all of these issues, plus a wide range of policy matters that the Executive Board addressed during the year.
Mexico Technical Assistance Report Strengthening Public Assets And Liabilities Management
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-12-17
Mexico Technical Assistance Report Strengthening Public Assets And Liabilities Management written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) of Mexico intends to strengthen public asset and liability management (ALM) practices. The 2018 Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) identified several gaps in reporting public sector assets and liabilities and analysis of the associated risks. The authorities have identified the need for further reforms in three interrelated areas: (i) adopt the public sector balance sheet (PSBS) analytical framework to inform policy making; (ii) move toward more active cash management; and (iii) strengthen the management of financial assets and introduce a sovereign assets and liabilities management (SALM) framework in a phased manner. This report provides recommendations for reforms in these three areas.
India
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-06-26
India written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-26 with Business & Economics categories.
Although Tamil Nadu’s public financial management has been characterized by strong fiscal discipline to date, risks and challenges are emerging. The State has largely observed the Fiscal Responsibility Act targets on debts and deficit (25 percent and 3 percent to GSDP, respectively) except during the electricity bailout in 2016–17.1 However, these targets appear to have been met by (1) controlling and delaying expenditure, (2) underallocating mandated payments to various reserve funds, and (3) allowing off-budget borrowing by Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs). Accordingly, the State’s borrowing capacity is restricted, leaving limited fiscal space to address high priority needs in education, health, electricity, roads, and water sectors, as well as to address growing infrastructure pressures. More than 63 percent of the State’s spending on current items is committed, to salaries, pensions, and interest payments. Little room remains for additional borrowing to fund spending pressures; moreover, climate change is likely to exacerbate fiscal risks from water stress and natural disasters.