Applied Decision Analysis And Economic Behaviour
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Applied Decision Analysis And Economic Behaviour
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Author : Andrew J. Hughes Hallett
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Applied Decision Analysis And Economic Behaviour written by Andrew J. Hughes Hallett and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The optimisation of economic systems over time, and in an uncertain environment, is central to the study of economic behaviour. The behaviour of rational decision makers, whether they are market agents, firms, or governments and their agencies, is governed by decisions designed to seeure the best outcomes subject to the perceived information and economic responses (inlcuding those of other agents). Economic behaviour has therefore to be analysed in terms of the outcomes of a multiperiod stochastic optimisation process containing four main components: the economic responses (the dynamic constraints, represented by an economic model); the objec tive function (the goals and their priorities); the conditioning information (expected exogenous events and the expected future state of the economy); and risk manage ment (how uncertainties are accommodated). The papers presented in this book all analyse some aspect of economic behaviour related to the objectives, information, or risk components of the decision process. While the construction of economic models obviously also has a vital role to play, that component has received much greater (or almost exclusive) attention elsewhere. These papers examine optimising behaviour in a wide range of economic problems, both theoretical and applied. They reflect a variety of concerns: economic responses under rational expectations; the Lucas critique and optimal fiscal or monetary poli eies; market management; partly endogenous goals; evaluating government reactions; locational decisions; uncertainty and information structures; and forecasting with endogenous reactions.
Decision Theory With Imperfect Information
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Author : Aliev Rafig Aziz
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2014-08-08
Decision Theory With Imperfect Information written by Aliev Rafig Aziz and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-08-08 with Mathematics categories.
Every day decision making in complex human-centric systems are characterized by imperfect decision-relevant information. The principal problems with the existing decision theories are that they do not have capability to deal with situations in which probabilities and events are imprecise. In this book, we describe a new theory of decision making with imperfect information. The aim is to shift the foundation of decision analysis and economic behavior from the realm bivalent logic to the realm fuzzy logic and Z-restriction, from external modeling of behavioral decisions to the framework of combined states.This book will be helpful for professionals, academics, managers and graduate students in fuzzy logic, decision sciences, artificial intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics.
Decision Analysis And Behavioral Research
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Author : D. von Winterfeldt
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1986-09-26
Decision Analysis And Behavioral Research written by D. von Winterfeldt and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1986-09-26 with Psychology categories.
Decision analysis is a technology designed to help individuals and organizations make wise inferences and decisions. It synthesises ideas from economics, statistics, psychology, operations research, and other disciplines. A great deal of behavioural research is relevant to decision analysis; behavioural scientists have both suggested easy and natural ways to describe and quantify problems and shown the kind of errors to which unaided intuitive judgements can lead. This long-awaited book offers the4first integrative presentation of the principles of decision analysis in a behavioural context. The authors break new ground on a variety of technical topics (sensitivity analysis, the value-utility distinction, multistage inference, attitudes toward risk), and attempt to make intuitive sense out of what have been treated in the literature as endemic biases and other errors of human judgement. Those interested in artificial intelligence will find it the easiest presentation of hierarchical Bayesian inference available.
Behavioural Economics Business Decision Making And Applied Policy Analysis
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Author : Nathan Berg
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Behavioural Economics Business Decision Making And Applied Policy Analysis written by Nathan Berg and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
The emergence of behavioural economics has provided new insights into economic and business phenomena by integrating elements of economic theory and experimental psychology. So far, the behavioural economics research agenda has concentrated on the empirical validity of foundational assumptions, producing new descriptive accounts of behavioural patterns that are difficult to explain using traditional neoclassical assumptions. This agenda has now developed sufficiently to begin exploring how to apply these descriptive findings to improve human performance, business decision making and economic policy. Forging a new normative economics based on behavioural theory is an ambitious project. There is not yet consensus, among behavioural economists or otherwise, that standard normative theories in economics such as the Fundamental Welfare Theorems built on axiomatic assumptions of self-interest, self-consistent utility maximisation and perfect information are in need of revision. From the observation that individual behaviour systematically deviates from textbook prescriptions for rational decision making, a broad range of sometimes conflicting conclusions about normative economics can be drawn. For example, some argue that when behaviour deviates from textbook prescriptions, policy should seek to revise people's behaviour rather than economists revise their normative models, e.g., teaching MBA students to correctly apply Bayes Rule rather than abandoning Bayes Rule as a criterion for rational decision making. Others argue that, because individuals fail to meet the idealised standard of perfect economic rationality, behavioural theory provides a new rationale for paternalistic intervention aiming to 'de-bias' individual behaviour, e.g., taxing potato chips and subsidising carrots to correct for impulsive consumer decisions at the grocery store. Still others argue that normative benchmarks such as transitivity, expected utility axioms, set-theoretic logic and probability theory, are largely irrelevant criteria for deciding whether a particular decision process works well in its respective environment. There is another possibility, infrequently mentioned: that economists abandon the singular normative framework based on axiomatic rationality in favor of empirical studies of behavior that is successful by a well defined criterion in a particular context - the concept of matching behavior to environment referred to as ecological rationality. Rather than achieving a unified consensus, there clearly are multiple approaches with different priorities for bringing the descriptive findings of behavioural economics' early years to bear on normative economics. Behavioural economics' goal of improved empirical realism will necessitate more attention among researchers to the problem of connecting theory to applied problems and contemporary debates in business, economics and political economy.
Economic Decision Analysis
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Author : Wolter J. Fabrycky
language : en
Publisher: Prentice Hall
Release Date : 1974
Economic Decision Analysis written by Wolter J. Fabrycky and has been published by Prentice Hall this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1974 with Business & Economics categories.
Textbook on decision making for decisions involving capital investment, with particular reference to the use of mathematical models - covers cost benefit analysis of economic alternatives, mathematical analysis of risks and uncertainties, economic modeling techniques, etc. Graphs and references.
Applied Decision Analysis
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Author : Francisco Javier Girón
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-09
Applied Decision Analysis written by Francisco Javier Girón and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-09 with Business & Economics categories.
Taking advantage of the many specialists visiting Spain prior to the INFORMS Meeting in Barcelona, hold from July 14th to July 17th 1997, we organized a work shop on Decision Analysis Applications at the Real Academia de Ciencias, Madrid, Spain, from J uly 11th to 12th 1997, under the sponsorship of de the Instituto Espaiia. This workshop had a precedent in the International Conference Decision Making: Towards the 21st Century also held at the Real Academia de Ciencias in 1993. The idea of organizing an event, this time devoted to applications of Decision Analysis, was due to Prof. Sixto Rfos, who some four years ago, .sponsored and encouraged by the Royal Academy of Sciences, was the creator of an Interdisciplinary Working Group on Decision Analysis -formed with researchers from within and outside this Academy- which has been active since then, organizing periodical meetings, and whose last project has tumed out into this Workshop. The workshop turned out to be an stimulating opportunity for communicating and discussing the enormous variety of applications of Decision Sciences. In this volume we have included most of the invited papers and a selection of refereed contributed papers. Due to the varied nature of the applications, we have grouped them into five groups ending, as way of an epilog, with a paper by Sarin which contains important insights and reftections on the nature of Decision Analysis in public and private sectors.
Decision Modeling And Behavior In Complex And Uncertain Environments
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Author : Tamar Kugler
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-07-20
Decision Modeling And Behavior In Complex And Uncertain Environments written by Tamar Kugler and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-07-20 with Business & Economics categories.
This text examines new research at the interface of operations research, behavioral and cognitive sciences, and decision analysis. From the cognitive behaviorist who collects empirical evidence as to how people make decisions to the engineer and economist who are the consumers of such understanding, the reader encounters the familiar Traveling Salesman Problem and Prisoner's dilemma, how agricultural decisions are made in Argentina's Pampas region, and some social goals that come into play as an element of rational decision-making. In these 14 self-contained chapters, broad topics covered include the integration of decision analysis and behavioral models, innovations in behavioral models, exploring descriptive behavior models, and experimental studies.
Tools And Techniques For Economic Decision Analysis
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Author : Stankovi?, Jelena
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2016-10-31
Tools And Techniques For Economic Decision Analysis written by Stankovi?, Jelena and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-10-31 with Business & Economics categories.
The success of any business relies heavily on the evaluation and improvement on current strategies and processes. Such progress can be facilitated by implementing more effective decision-making systems. Tools and Techniques for Economic Decision Analysis provides a thorough overview of decision models and methodologies in the context of business economics. Highlighting a variety of relevant issues on finance, economic policy, and firms and networks, this book is an ideal reference source for managers, professionals, students, and academics interested in emerging developments for decision analysis.
Applied Behavioral Economics Research And Trends
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Author : Ianole, Rodica
language : en
Publisher: IGI Global
Release Date : 2016-12-12
Applied Behavioral Economics Research And Trends written by Ianole, Rodica and has been published by IGI Global this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-12-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Interdisciplinary factors in the modern business realm have significant impacts on economic agents within organizations. These behavioral influences affect multiple decision-making processes on both the individual and organizational levels. Applied Behavioral Economics Research and Trends provides a comprehensive examination of the social, psychological, and emotional factors in organizational behavior and economic decision-making and how these issues provide a deeper understanding of various economic behaviors. Highlighting relevant coverage across a range of topics, such as consumer behavior, inter-temporal choices, and self-employment, this book is ideally designed for managers, researchers, professionals, graduate students, and practitioners seeking scholarly material on the implications of behavioral economics across numerous industries.
Organization And Economic Behaviour
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Author : Anna Grandori
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2001
Organization And Economic Behaviour written by Anna Grandori and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001 with Organizational behavior categories.
Presents all the basic elements of organizational theory and behaviour. Different approaches are analysed, with a strong focus on intergrating sociological, psychological and economic contributors to the subject.