Applied Decision Analysis And Economic Behaviour
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Applied Decision Analysis And Economic Behaviour
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Author : Andrew J. Hughes Hallett
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Applied Decision Analysis And Economic Behaviour written by Andrew J. Hughes Hallett and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
The optimisation of economic systems over time, and in an uncertain environment, is central to the study of economic behaviour. The behaviour of rational decision makers, whether they are market agents, firms, or governments and their agencies, is governed by decisions designed to seeure the best outcomes subject to the perceived information and economic responses (inlcuding those of other agents). Economic behaviour has therefore to be analysed in terms of the outcomes of a multiperiod stochastic optimisation process containing four main components: the economic responses (the dynamic constraints, represented by an economic model); the objec tive function (the goals and their priorities); the conditioning information (expected exogenous events and the expected future state of the economy); and risk manage ment (how uncertainties are accommodated). The papers presented in this book all analyse some aspect of economic behaviour related to the objectives, information, or risk components of the decision process. While the construction of economic models obviously also has a vital role to play, that component has received much greater (or almost exclusive) attention elsewhere. These papers examine optimising behaviour in a wide range of economic problems, both theoretical and applied. They reflect a variety of concerns: economic responses under rational expectations; the Lucas critique and optimal fiscal or monetary poli eies; market management; partly endogenous goals; evaluating government reactions; locational decisions; uncertainty and information structures; and forecasting with endogenous reactions.
Hidden Markov Models
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Author : Ramaprasad Bhar
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2006-04-18
Hidden Markov Models written by Ramaprasad Bhar and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-04-18 with Business & Economics categories.
Markov chains have increasingly become useful way of capturing stochastic nature of many economic and financial variables. Although the hidden Markov processes have been widely employed for some time in many engineering applications e.g. speech recognition, its effectiveness has now been recognized in areas of social science research as well. The main aim of Hidden Markov Models: Applications to Financial Economics is to make such techniques available to more researchers in financial economics. As such we only cover the necessary theoretical aspects in each chapter while focusing on real life applications using contemporary data mainly from OECD group of countries. The underlying assumption here is that the researchers in financial economics would be familiar with such application although empirical techniques would be more traditional econometrics. Keeping the application level in a more familiar level, we focus on the methodology based on hidden Markov processes. This will, we believe, help the reader to develop more in-depth understanding of the modeling issues thereby benefiting their future research.
The Encyclopedia Of Public Choice
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Author : Charles Rowley
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2008-01-25
The Encyclopedia Of Public Choice written by Charles Rowley and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-01-25 with Business & Economics categories.
The Encyclopedia provides a detailed and comprehensive account of the subject known as public choice. However, the title would not convey suf- ciently the breadth of the Encyclopedia’s contents which can be summarized better as the fruitful interchange of economics, political science and moral philosophy on the basis of an image of man as a purposive and responsible actor who pursues his own objectives as efficiently as possible. This fruitful interchange between the fields outlined above existed during the late eighteenth century during the brief period of the Scottish Enlightenment when such great scholars as David Hume, Adam Ferguson and Adam Smith contributed to all these fields, and more. However, as intell- tual specialization gradually replaced broad-based scholarship from the m- nineteenth century onwards, it became increasingly rare to find a scholar making major contributions to more than one. Once Alfred Marshall defined economics in neoclassical terms, as a n- row positive discipline, the link between economics, political science and moral philosophy was all but severed and economists redefined their role into that of ‘the humble dentist’ providing technical economic information as inputs to improve the performance of impartial, benevolent and omniscient governments in their attempts to promote the public interest. This indeed was the dominant view within an economics profession that had become besotted by the economics of John Maynard Keynes and Paul Samuelson immediately following the end of the Second World War.
Econometric Modelling Of Stock Market Intraday Activity
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Author : Luc Bauwens
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-11-11
Econometric Modelling Of Stock Market Intraday Activity written by Luc Bauwens and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Over the past 25 years, applied econometrics has undergone tremen dous changes, with active developments in fields of research such as time series, labor econometrics, financial econometrics and simulation based methods. Time series analysis has been an active field of research since the seminal work by Box and Jenkins (1976), who introduced a gen eral framework in which time series can be analyzed. In the world of financial econometrics and the application of time series techniques, the ARCH model of Engle (1982) has shifted the focus from the modelling of the process in itself to the modelling of the volatility of the process. In less than 15 years, it has become one of the most successful fields of 1 applied econometric research with hundreds of published papers. As an alternative to the ARCH modelling of the volatility, Taylor (1986) intro duced the stochastic volatility model, whose features are quite similar to the ARCH specification but which involves an unobserved or latent component for the volatility. While being more difficult to estimate than usual GARCH models, stochastic volatility models have found numerous applications in the modelling of volatility and more particularly in the econometric part of option pricing formulas. Although modelling volatil ity is one of the best known examples of applied financial econometrics, other topics (factor models, present value relationships, term structure 2 models) were also successfully tackled.
Exchange Rate Modelling
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Author : Ronald MacDonald
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-04-17
Exchange Rate Modelling written by Ronald MacDonald and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-17 with Business & Economics categories.
Are foreign exchange markets efficient? Are fundamentals important for predicting exchange rate movements? What is the signal-to-ratio of high frequency exchange rate changes? Is it possible to define a measure of the equilibrium exchange rate that is useful from an assessment perspective? The book is a selective survey of current thinking on key topics in exchange rate economics, supplemented throughout by new empirical evidence. The focus is on the use of advanced econometric tools to find answers to these and other questions which are important to practitioners, policy-makers and academic economists. In addition, the book addresses more technical econometric considerations such as the importance of the choice between single-equation and system-wide approaches to modelling the exchange rate, and the reduced form versus structural equation problems. Readers will gain both a comprehensive overview of the way macroeconomists approach exchange rate modelling, and an understanding of how advanced techniques can help them explain and predict the behavior of this crucial economic variable.
Estimating Trade Elasticities
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Author : Jaime Marquez
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-03-14
Estimating Trade Elasticities written by Jaime Marquez and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-14 with Business & Economics categories.
One cannot exaggerate the importance of estimating how international trade responds to changes in income and prices. But there is a tension between whether one should use models that fit the data but that contradict certain aspects of the underlying theory or models that fit the theory but contradict certain aspects of the data. The essays in Estimating Trade Elasticities book offer one practical approach to deal with this tension. The analysis starts with the practical implications of optimising behaviour for estimation and it follows with a re-examination of the puzzling income elasticity for US imports that three decades of studies have not resolved. The analysis then turns to the study of the role of income and prices in determining the expansion in Asian trade, a study largely neglected in fifty years of research. With the new estimates of trade elasticities, the book examines how they assist in restoring the consistency between elasticity estimates and the world trade identity.
Commodity Futures And Financial Markets
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Author : L. Phlips
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Commodity Futures And Financial Markets written by L. Phlips and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Louis Phlips The stabilisation of primary commodity prices, and the related issue of the stabilisation of export earnings of developing countries, have traditionally been studied without reference to the futures markets (that exist or could exist) for these commodities. These futures markets have in turn been s~udied in isolation. The same is true for the new developments on financial markets. Over the last few years, in particular sine the 1985 tin crisis and the October 1987 stock exchange crisis, it has become evident that there are inter actions between commodity, futures, and financial markets and that these inter actions are very important. The more so as trade on futures and financial markets has shown a spectacular increase. This volume brings together a number of recent and unpublished papers on these interactions by leading specialists (and their students). A first set of papers examines how the use of futures markets could help stabilising export earnings of developing countries and how this compares to the rather unsuccessful UNCTAD type interventions via buffer stocks, pegged prices and cartels. A second set of papers faces the fact, largely ignored in the literature, that commodity prices are determined in foreign currencies, with the result that developing countries suffer from the volatility of exchange rates of these currencies (even in cases where commodity prices are relatively stable). Financial markets are thus explicitly linked to futures and commodity markets.
The Econometrics Of Panel Data
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Author : László Mátyás
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-12-01
The Econometrics Of Panel Data written by László Mátyás and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The aim of this volume is to provide a general overview of the econometrics of panel data, both from a theoretical and from an applied viewpoint. Since the pioneering papers by Edwin Kuh (1959), Yair Mundlak (1961), Irving Hoch (1962), and Pietro Balestra and Marc Nerlove (1966), the pooling of cross sections and time series data has become an increasingly popular way of quantifying economic relationships. Each series provides information lacking in the other, so a combination of both leads to more accurate and reliable results than would be achievable by one type of series alone. Over the last 30 years much work has been done: investigation of the properties of the applied estimators and test statistics, analysis of dynamic models and the effects of eventual measurement errors, etc. These are just some of the problems addressed by this work. In addition, some specific diffi culties associated with the use of panel data, such as attrition, heterogeneity, selectivity bias, pseudo panels etc., have also been explored. The first objective of this book, which takes up Parts I and II, is to give as complete and up-to-date a presentation of these theoretical developments as possible. Part I is concerned with classical linear models and their extensions; Part II deals with nonlinear models and related issues: logit and pro bit models, latent variable models, duration and count data models, incomplete panels and selectivity bias, point processes, and simulation techniques.
Studies In Global Econometrics
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Author : H. Theil
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2007-07-11
Studies In Global Econometrics written by H. Theil and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007-07-11 with Business & Economics categories.
Studies in Global Econometrics is a collection of essays on the use of cross-country data based on purchasing power parities. The two major applications are the development over time of per capital gross domestic products, (including that of their inequalities among countries and regions) and the fitting of cross-country demand equations for broad groups of consumer goods. The introductory chapter provides highlights of the author's work as relating to these developments. One of the main topics of the work is a system of demand equations for broad groups of consumer goods fitted by means of cross-country data. These data are from the International Comparison Program, which provides PPP-based figures for a number of years and countries. Similar data are used for the measurement of the dispersion of national per capita incomes between and within seven geographic regions.
Monetary Policy
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Author : Y. Barroux
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06
Monetary Policy written by Y. Barroux and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.
Patrick Artus and Yves Barroux The Applied Econometric Association organised an international conference on "Monetary and Financial Models" in Geneva in January 1987. The purpose of this book is to make available to the public a choice of the papers that were presented at the conference. The selected papers all deal with the setting of monetary targets and the effects of monetary policy on the economy as well as with the analysis of the financial behaviours of economic agents. Other papers presented at the same conference but dealing with the external aspects of monetary policy (exchange rate policy, international coordination of economic policies, international transmission of business cycles, . . . ) are the matter of a distinct publication. The papers put together to make up this book either are theoretical research contributions or consist of applied statistical or econometric work. It seemed to be more logical to start with the more theoretical papers. The topics tackled in the first two parts of the book have in common the fact that they appeared just recently in the field of economic research and deal with the analysis of the behaviour of Central Banks. They analyse this behaviour so as to be able to exhibit its major determinants as well as revealed preferences of Central Banks: this topic comes under the caption "optimal monetary policy and reaction function of the monetary authorities".