Asian Business Cycle Synchronisation
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Asian Business Cycle Synchronisation
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Author : Dong He
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Asian Business Cycle Synchronisation written by Dong He and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Asia categories.
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Mr.Romain A Duval
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-03
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Asian Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Dong He
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Asian Business Cycle Synchronization written by Dong He and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
This paper develops a multilevel structural factor model to study international output comovement and its underlying driving forces. Our method combines a structural vector autoregression with a multilevel factor model, which helps us understand the economic meaning of the estimated factors. Using quarterly data of real GDP growth covering 9 emerging Asian economies and G-7 countries, we estimate a global supply factor, a global demand factor, and group supply and demand factors for each group of the economies. We find that although the role of the global factors has intensified over the past 15 years for most of the economies, output fluctuations in Asia have remained less synchronized with the global factor than those in the industrial countries. The Asian regional factors have become increasingly important in tightening the interdependence within the region over time. Therefore, although emerging Asian economies cannot 'decouple' completely from the advanced economies, they have, nonetheless, sustained a strong independent cycle among themselves. We also find that synchronized supply shocks contributed more to the observed synchronization in output fluctuations among the Asian economies than demand shocks. This points to the role of productivity enhancement and transmission of other supply shocks through, for example, vertical trade integration, rather than dependence on external demand, as the primary source of business cycle synchronization in emerging Asia.
Business Cycle Synchronisation In East Asia
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Author : Wei Jiang
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2019
Business Cycle Synchronisation In East Asia written by Wei Jiang and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019 with categories.
We empirically investigate the relationship between business cycle synchronisation and the role of value-added trade focusing on a panel of 12 Asian countries from 1995 to 2011. In addition, we propose the inclusion of two novel determinants, for example external value-added trade intensity and exchange rate volatility and also saturate our empirical model with other common determinants found in the literature. Our findings first confirm that value-added trade intensity, rather than gross trade intensity, has a sizable, positive and statistically significant impact on synchronisation among East Asian countries. Second, the exchange rate volatility has a significant negative effect on the business cycle synchronisation, which verifies that the exchange rate volatility is another important determinant of business cycle synchronisation. Our findings have important implications for the monetary cooperation in the region: strengthening trade linkage could reduce the costs of monetary cooperation by increasing the incidence of symmetric shocks.
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization In East Asia
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Author : Kwanho Shin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization In East Asia written by Kwanho Shin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business cycles categories.
The Business Cycle Synchronisation In East Asia
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Author : Hooi Yean Lee
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2007
The Business Cycle Synchronisation In East Asia written by Hooi Yean Lee and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2007 with Synchronization categories.
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization In Europe
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Author : Kwan-ho Sin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization In Europe written by Kwan-ho Sin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business cycles categories.
Business Cycle Synchronisation In East Asia
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Author : Fabio Moneta
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2006
Business Cycle Synchronisation In East Asia written by Fabio Moneta and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
Trade Intensity And Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Pradumna Rana
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Trade Intensity And Business Cycle Synchronization written by Pradumna Rana and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
This paper examines whether increasing trade intensities among East Asian countries have led to a synchronization of business cycles. It extends the work of Shin and Wang (2004) in two ways: by improving the specification of their business cycle correlation equation and by extending the sample to cover the post-crisis period. The study finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor in explaining business cycle co-movements in East Asia. This result has important implications for the prospects of introducing a single currency in the region.
Business Cycle Synchronization And Vertical Trade Integration
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Author : Sŏng-hyŏn Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Business Cycle Synchronization And Vertical Trade Integration written by Sŏng-hyŏn Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.