Asian Business Cycle Synchronization
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Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Mr.Romain A Duval
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-03
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization written by Mr.Romain A Duval and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.
Asian Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Dong He
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2012
Asian Business Cycle Synchronization written by Dong He and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with categories.
This paper develops a multilevel structural factor model to study international output comovement and its underlying driving forces. Our method combines a structural vector autoregression with a multilevel factor model, which helps us understand the economic meaning of the estimated factors. Using quarterly data of real GDP growth covering 9 emerging Asian economies and G-7 countries, we estimate a global supply factor, a global demand factor, and group supply and demand factors for each group of the economies. We find that although the role of the global factors has intensified over the past 15 years for most of the economies, output fluctuations in Asia have remained less synchronized with the global factor than those in the industrial countries. The Asian regional factors have become increasingly important in tightening the interdependence within the region over time. Therefore, although emerging Asian economies cannot 'decouple' completely from the advanced economies, they have, nonetheless, sustained a strong independent cycle among themselves. We also find that synchronized supply shocks contributed more to the observed synchronization in output fluctuations among the Asian economies than demand shocks. This points to the role of productivity enhancement and transmission of other supply shocks through, for example, vertical trade integration, rather than dependence on external demand, as the primary source of business cycle synchronization in emerging Asia.
Trade Intensity And Business Cycle Synchronization
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Author : Pradumna Rana
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Trade Intensity And Business Cycle Synchronization written by Pradumna Rana and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with categories.
This paper examines whether increasing trade intensities among East Asian countries have led to a synchronization of business cycles. It extends the work of Shin and Wang (2004) in two ways: by improving the specification of their business cycle correlation equation and by extending the sample to cover the post-crisis period. The study finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor in explaining business cycle co-movements in East Asia. This result has important implications for the prospects of introducing a single currency in the region.
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization In East Asia
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Author : Kwanho Shin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization In East Asia written by Kwanho Shin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business cycles categories.
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization In Europe
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Author : Kwan-ho Sin
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2003
Trade Integration And Business Cycle Synchronization In Europe written by Kwan-ho Sin and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003 with Business cycles categories.
Regional Business Cycles In East Asia
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Author : Young-Joon Park
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
Regional Business Cycles In East Asia written by Young-Joon Park and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
This paper analyzes the dynamics and nature of regional business cycle synchronization for East Asian countries in the period of 2000:Q1-2011:Q4. Estimating a dynamic two-factor model extracts the common factor and the nation-specific factor from both the macroeconomic aggregates and plausible driving forces of regional business cycles. Evidence for regional business cycle synchronization is particularly strong for Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Japan shows weak evidence of regional synchronization. On the other hand, Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore and China are decoupling from regional business cycles. The driver of monetary aggregate is the most significant determinant of regional fluctuations of macroeconomic aggregates, whereas oil price and productivity are on average important driving forces of nation-specific fluctuations of real economic activities.
Business Cycle Synchronization And Vertical Trade Integration
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Author : Sŏng-hyŏn Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2014
Business Cycle Synchronization And Vertical Trade Integration written by Sŏng-hyŏn Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014 with categories.
Asian Business Cycle Synchronisation
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Author : Dong He
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2010
Asian Business Cycle Synchronisation written by Dong He and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010 with Asia categories.
International Parities And Business Cycle Synchronization In The Asia Pacific Region
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Author : Tze-Haw Chan
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
International Parities And Business Cycle Synchronization In The Asia Pacific Region written by Tze-Haw Chan and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Business cycles categories.
International Capital Flows Boom Bust Cycles And Business Cycle Synchronization In The Asia Pacific Region
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Author : Soyoung Kim
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013
International Capital Flows Boom Bust Cycles And Business Cycle Synchronization In The Asia Pacific Region written by Soyoung Kim and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.
This article documents evidence of business cycle synchronization in selected Asia Pacific countries since the 1990s. We explain business cycle synchronization by the channel of international capital flows and boom-bust cycles. Using the vector auto-regression method, we find that most Asian countries experience boom-bust cycles following capital inflows, where the boom in output is mostly driven by consumption and investment. Empirical evidence also shows that capital flow shocks are positively correlated in the region, which supports the conclusion that capital market liberalization has contributed to business cycle synchronization.