Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Download Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods PDF/ePub or read online books in Mobi eBooks. Click Download or Read Online button to get Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods book now. This website allows unlimited access to, at the time of writing, more than 1.5 million titles, including hundreds of thousands of titles in various foreign languages. If the content not found or just blank you must refresh this page
Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Doug Hostland
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2006
Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods written by Doug Hostland and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with categories.
This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.
Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Mr.Philippe D Karam
language : en
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Release Date : 2005-12-01
Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies Using Stochastic Simulation Methods written by Mr.Philippe D Karam and has been published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-12-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number of interrelated factors, including the volatility of output, financial fragility, the endogenous response of the risk premium, and sudden stops in private capital flows. The vulnerability of external debt is sensitive to the determination of the exchange rate and to the pricing of traded goods. We show that fiscal policy can act in a preemptive manner to prevent the debt burden from rising significantly over the medium term. This requires flexibility in fiscal planning, which many emerging market economies lack. Emerging market economies therefore face a difficult trade-off between managing the risk of a debt crisis and pursuing other important fiscal policy objectives.
Specification Of A Stochastic Simulation Model For Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Philippe D Karam
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2006-12
Specification Of A Stochastic Simulation Model For Assessing Debt Sustainability In Emerging Market Economies written by Philippe D Karam and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-12 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper documents the specification of a model that was constructed to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies. Key features of the model include external and fiscal sectors, which allow assessment of external and public debt in a unified framework; public and external debt, which both have an explicit maturity structure along with a distinction between denomination in domestic versus foreign currency to facilitate debt management analysis; monetary and fiscal policy, which are endogenous and specified using explicit forward-looking policy rules; an endogenous risk premium on public and external debt; and a mechanism for invoking a sudden stop in private capital flows. The paper provides an overview of the basic structure of the model, outlines the methodology used to calibrate the parameters, and illustrates the key properties of the model with reference to dynamic responses of selected variables to shocks of interest.
Public Debt Sustainability In Developing Asia
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Benno Ferrarini
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2012
Public Debt Sustainability In Developing Asia written by Benno Ferrarini and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012 with Business & Economics categories.
Addressing the global financial crisis has required fiscal intervention on a substantial scale by governments around the world. The consequent buildup of public debt, in particular its sustainability, has moved to center stage in the policy debate. If the Asia and Pacific region is to continue to serve as an engine for global growth, its public debt must be sustainable. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia addresses this issue for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as for three of the most dynamic economies in the region: the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. The book begins with a discussion of the reasons for increased attention to debt-related issues. It also introduces fiscal indicators for the Asian Development. Bank’s developing member countries and economies. The sustainability of their debt is assessed through extant approaches and with the most up-to-date data sources. The book also surveys the existing literature on debt sustainability, outlining the main issues related to it, and discusses the key implications for the application of debt sustainability analysis in developing Asia. Also highlighted is the importance of conducting individual country studies in view of wide variations in definitions of public expenditure, revenues, contingent liabilities, government structures (e.g., federal), and the like, as well as the impact of debt on interest rates. The book further provides in-depth debt sustainability analyses for the People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam. Public Debt Sustainability in Developing Asia offers a comprehensive analytical and empirical update on the sustainability of public debt in the region. It breaks new ground in examining characteristics that are crucial to understanding sustainability and offers richer policy analysis that should prove useful for policymakers, researchers, and graduate students.
The Impact Of Debt Sustainability And The Level Of Debt On Emerging Markets Spreads
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Nazim Belhocine
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-05-01
The Impact Of Debt Sustainability And The Level Of Debt On Emerging Markets Spreads written by Nazim Belhocine and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-01 with Business & Economics categories.
How do financial markets respond to concerns over debt sustainability and the level of public debt in emerging markets? We introduce a measure of debt sustainability – the difference between the debt stabilizing primary balance and the primary balance–in an otherwise standard spread regression model applied to a panel of 26 emerging market economies. We find that debt sustainability is an important determinant of spreads. In addition, using a panel smooth transition regression model, we find that the sensitivity of spreads to debt sustainability doubles as public debt increases above 45 percent of GDP. These results suggest that market interest rates react more to debt sustainability concerns in a country with a high level of debt compared to a country with a low level of debt.
Primary Surpluses And Sustainable Debt Levels In Emerging Market Countries
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Mr.Abdul Abiad
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2005-10-01
Primary Surpluses And Sustainable Debt Levels In Emerging Market Countries written by Mr.Abdul Abiad and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper aims to put some constraints on the way primary surpluses are projected when making assessments of public debt sustainability. Projections should be tied either to the country's historical track record in generating surpluses-if the institutional and other factors accounting for this track record are expected to persist-or to some model that links primary surpluses to their fundamental determinants, either on the basis of constant institutions and policies or a credible reform program. History-based or model-based primary surplus projections provide a useful benchmark for judging the realism of fiscal forecasts underlying debt sustainability calculations. Together with information on future growth and interest rates, the primary surplus projections can be used to generate measures of overborrowing, and the magnitude of adjustment needed to return debt to a sustainable level.
Stochastic Trends Debt Sustainability And Fiscal Policy
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Karim Barhoumi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2016-03-10
Stochastic Trends Debt Sustainability And Fiscal Policy written by Karim Barhoumi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-10 with Business & Economics categories.
We study empirically the reaction of fiscal policy to changes in the permanent and transitory components of GDP in a panel of countries. We find evidence that government spending tends to be counter-cyclical conditional on temporary shocks and pro-cyclical conditional on permanent shocks. We also find no evidence that developing countries are systematically different from developed ones in terms of fiscal policy. We present a theory featuring a fiscal reaction function to the output gap and a measure of debt sustainability. The fiscal impulse response to a permanent (temporary) shock to GDP is positive (negative) as the effect on debt sustainability (current output gap) dominates. The results are mostly sensitive to the relative weight of debt sustainability in the fiscal reaction function as well as to the extent of real rigidities in the economy.
Fiscal Sustainability
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Mr.Evan Tanner
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-04-22
Fiscal Sustainability written by Mr.Evan Tanner and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-04-22 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA should be linked to some objective regarding the distribution of fiscal burdens and distortions over time (in the tradition of Barro’s 1979 tax smoothing objective). The paper discusses objective functions that yield simple and transparent fiscal policy rules.
Imf Staff Papers Volume 55 No 1
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-06-18
Imf Staff Papers Volume 55 No 1 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-06-18 with Business & Economics categories.
In this issue, a team of economists look at approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Era Dabla-Norris and Gabriela Inchauste examine what drives the growth of firms, with a focus on informality and regulations. Evan Tanner and Issouf Samake use a vector autoregression approach to examine the probabilistic sustainability of public debt in Brazil. Mexico, and Turkey. And Rachel Glennerster and Yongseok Shin ask whether transparency pays?that is, does the frequency and accuracy of macroeconomic information released to the public lead to lower borrowing costs in sovereign debt markets?
Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity
DOWNLOAD
FREE 30 Days
Author : Mr.George Kopits
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2003-04-01
Assessing Fiscal Sustainability Under Uncertainity written by Mr.George Kopits and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2003-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
Unlike conventional fiscal sustainability assessments, the Value-at-Risk approach developed in this paper explicitly captures the contribution of key risk variables to public sector vulnerability. In an illustrative application to Ecuador, the VaR approach confirms a significant risk of government financial failure stemming from the volatility and comovements of the exchange rate, interest rates, oil prices, and output. Although dollarization has helped attenuate fiscal vulnerability, the volatility of sovereign spreads and of oil prices remain major sources of risk for Ecuador's public sector. The paper concludes with a discussion of policy implications, an evaluation of the methodology, and suggestions for future research.