Assessing Imf Lending A Model Of Sample Selection
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Assessing Imf Lending A Model Of Sample Selection
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Author : Nicolas Mäder
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-07-19
Assessing Imf Lending A Model Of Sample Selection written by Nicolas Mäder and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-07-19 with Business & Economics categories.
Extending previous work on the determinants of IMF lending in an interconnected world, we introduce a model of sample selection in which both selection and size dimensions of individual IMF arrangements are presented within a unified econometric framework. We allow for unobserved heterogeneity to create an additional channel for sample selection at the country level. The results suggest that higher external financing needs, larger exchange rate depreciation, lower GDP growth, as well as deteriorated global financial conditions, are associated with larger individual IMF arrangement sizes. Using the estimated parameters, Monte Carlo simulation of a wide spectrum of global shock scenarios suggest that the distribution of potential aggregate IMF lending exhibits a substantial right tail. Our approach may provide an insightful input to broader policy discussions on the adequacy of the IMF resources.
Predicting Imf Supported Programs A Machine Learning Approach
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Author : Tsendsuren Batsuuri
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-03-08
Predicting Imf Supported Programs A Machine Learning Approach written by Tsendsuren Batsuuri and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-03-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This study applies state-of-the-art machine learning (ML) techniques to forecast IMF-supported programs, analyzes the ML prediction results relative to traditional econometric approaches, explores non-linear relationships among predictors indicative of IMF-supported programs, and evaluates model robustness with regard to different feature sets and time periods. ML models consistently outperform traditional methods in out-of-sample prediction of new IMF-supported arrangements with key predictors that align well with the literature and show consensus across different algorithms. The analysis underscores the importance of incorporating a variety of external, fiscal, real, and financial features as well as institutional factors like membership in regional financing arrangements. The findings also highlight the varying influence of data processing choices such as feature selection, sampling techniques, and missing data imputation on the performance of different ML models and therefore indicate the usefulness of a flexible, algorithm-tailored approach. Additionally, the results reveal that models that are most effective in near and medium-term predictions may tend to underperform over the long term, thus illustrating the need for regular updates or more stable – albeit potentially near-term suboptimal – models when frequent updates are impractical.
Imf Lending And Banking Crises
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Author : Luca Papi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-01-26
Imf Lending And Banking Crises written by Luca Papi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-01-26 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper looks at the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs on banking crises in a large sample of developing countries, over the period 1970-2010. The endogeneity of the IMF intervention is addressed by adopting an instrumental variable strategy and a propensity score matching estimator. Controlling for the standard determinants of banking crises, our results indicate that countries participating in IMF-supported lending programs are significantly less likely to experience a future banking crisis than nonborrowing countries. We also provide evidence suggesting that compliance with conditionality and loan size matter.
Imf Staff Papers Volume 55 No 1
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-06-18
Imf Staff Papers Volume 55 No 1 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-06-18 with Business & Economics categories.
In this issue, a team of economists look at approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or permanent phenomenon. Era Dabla-Norris and Gabriela Inchauste examine what drives the growth of firms, with a focus on informality and regulations. Evan Tanner and Issouf Samake use a vector autoregression approach to examine the probabilistic sustainability of public debt in Brazil. Mexico, and Turkey. And Rachel Glennerster and Yongseok Shin ask whether transparency pays?that is, does the frequency and accuracy of macroeconomic information released to the public lead to lower borrowing costs in sovereign debt markets?
The Politics Of Imf Lending
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Author : M. Breen
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2013-08-15
The Politics Of Imf Lending written by M. Breen and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-15 with Political Science categories.
As national governments continue to disagree over how to respond to the aftermath of the global financial crisis, two of the few areas of consensus were the decisions to increase the IMF's capacity to respond and remove the policies designed to limit the use of its resources. Why was this massive increase in the size of the IMF, accompanied by the removal of policies designed to limit moral hazard, such an easy point of consensus? Michael Breen looks at the hidden politics behind IMF lending and proposes a new theory based on shareholder control. To test this theory, he combines statistical analysis with a sweeping account of IMF lending and conditionality during two global crises; the European sovereign debt crisis and the Asian financial crisis.
Does Conditionality In Imf Supported Programs Promote Revenue Reform
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Author : Ernesto Crivelli
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-11-19
Does Conditionality In Imf Supported Programs Promote Revenue Reform written by Ernesto Crivelli and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-11-19 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies whether revenue conditionality in Fund-supported programs had any impact on the revenue performance of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993-2013. The results indicate that such conditionality had a positive impact on tax revenue, with strongest improvement felt on taxes on goods and services, including the VAT. Revenue conditionality matters more for low-income countries, particularly those where revenue ratios are below the group average. Moreover, revenue conditionality appears to be more effective when targeted to a specific tax. These results hold after controlling for potential endogeneity, sample selection bias, and when revenues are adjusted for economic cycle.
Pricing Theory Financing Of International Organisations And Monetary History
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Author : Lawrence H. Officer
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2014-04-08
Pricing Theory Financing Of International Organisations And Monetary History written by Lawrence H. Officer and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-08 with Business & Economics categories.
This book presents the lifelong and ongoing research of Lawrence H. Officer in a systematic way. The result is an authoritative treatment of such issues as market structure and economic efficiency where more than one characteristic of a commodity is priced, both in general and in application to shipping conferences; financing of the United Nations and International Monetary Fund; monetary history of the UK and US; and central-bank preferences between gold and dollars, The book first examines multidimensional pricing, defined as pricing when a commodity or service has several characteristics that are priced. The second part is concerned with country-group conflicts in the United Nations and International Monetary Fund. The book then takes a fresh look at historical experiences of monetary-standard upheavals and the final part considers a crucial time (1958-67), during which central-bank gold-dollar decisions were power-politically determined.
Imf Staff Papers
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1994-01-01
Imf Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994-01-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The paper presents a model of optimum currency areas using a general equilibrium approach with regionally differentiated goods. The choice of a currency union depends upon the size of the underlying disturbances, the correlation between these disturbances, the costs of transactions across currencies, factor mobility across regions, and the interrelationships between demand for different goods. It is found that, while a currency union can raise the welfare of the regions within the union, it unambiguously lowers welfare for those outside the union. [JEL F33, F36]
The Impact Of Bailouts On The Probability Of Sovereign Debt Crises Evidence From Imf Supported Programs
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Author : Hippolyte W. Balima
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-01-11
The Impact Of Bailouts On The Probability Of Sovereign Debt Crises Evidence From Imf Supported Programs written by Hippolyte W. Balima and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-01-11 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper studies the role of IMF-supported programs in mitigating the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults in borrowing countries. Using a panel of 106 developing countries from 1970 to 2016 and an entropy balancing methodology, we find that IMF-supported programs significantly reduce the likelihood of subsequent sovereign defaults. This finding is robust to different specifications of the entropy balancing and alternative identification strategies. Our results suggest that a country that signs a program with the IMF, typically experiences a slight improvement in its sovereign credit rating and a decrease in both government debt-to-GDP and fiscal deficit-to-GDP.
A Constrained Choice Impact Of Concessionality Requirements On Borrowing Behavior
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Author : Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-09-24
A Constrained Choice Impact Of Concessionality Requirements On Borrowing Behavior written by Mr.Calixte Ahokpossi and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-09-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper uses the propensity matching score approach to assess the impact of the IMF’s debt limits policy (DLP) on borrowing behavior in countries eligible to borrow from its concessional lending window. The paper finds that countries under the DLP borrow significantly higher amounts of concessional resources. However, there is no evidence that the DLP significantly impacts the level of non-concessional borrowing nor the terms of such borrowing. This result is confirmed by the heterogeneity analysis, suggesting that the level of development, rather than concessionality requirements, is the key driver of non-concessional borrowing.