Assessing Rational Expectations 2
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Assessing Rational Expectations 2
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Author : Roger Guesnerie
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2005-02-18
Assessing Rational Expectations 2 written by Roger Guesnerie and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-02-18 with Business & Economics categories.
A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test. The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure. Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.
Assessing Rational Expectations 2
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Author : R. Guesnerie
language : en
Publisher: Mit Press
Release Date : 2005
Assessing Rational Expectations 2 written by R. Guesnerie and has been published by Mit Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Business & Economics categories.
A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test.
Assessing Rational Expectations
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Author : Roger Guesnerie
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2001-04-13
Assessing Rational Expectations written by Roger Guesnerie and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-04-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Roger Guesnerie contributes to the critical assessment of the Rational Expectations hypothesis (REH). In this book Roger Guesnerie contributes to the critical assessment of the Rational Expectations hypothesis (REH). He focuses on the multiplicity question that arises in (infinite horizon) Rational Expectation models and considers the implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. The REH, which dominates the economic modeling of expectations in most fields of formalized economic theory, is often associated with an optimistic view of the working of the markets—a view that Guesnerie scrutinizes closely. The book is divided into four parts. The first part uses the framework of simple models to characterize the stochastic processes that trigger self-fulfilling prophecies and examines the connections between periodic equilibria (cycles) and stochastic equilibria (sunspots). (A sunspot is a random shock uncorrelated with underlying economic fundamentals.) The second part views sunspot equilibria as overreactions triggered by small variations of intrinsic variables—rather than as fluctuations with no trigger—and looks at the consequences for a monetary theory à la Lucas. The third part develops the basic theory to encompass more complex, multidimensional systems. It focuses in particular on the special class of equilibria generating small fluctuations around a steady state. Broadening the scope, the fourth part looks at the stability of cycles, sunspots in systems with memory, and current research on rational expectations.
The Limits To Rational Expectations
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Author : M. Hashem Pesaran
language : en
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
Release Date : 1989
The Limits To Rational Expectations written by M. Hashem Pesaran and has been published by Wiley-Blackwell this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1989 with Business & Economics categories.
A Comprehensive Assessment Of The Role Of Risk In U S Agriculture
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Author : Richard E. Just
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-11-11
A Comprehensive Assessment Of The Role Of Risk In U S Agriculture written by Richard E. Just and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-11 with Technology & Engineering categories.
After all the research on agricultural risk to date, the treatment of risk in agricultural research is far from harmonious. Many competing risk models have been proposed. Some new methodologies are largely untested. Some of the leading empirical methodologies in agricultural economic research are poorly suited for problems with aggregate data where risk averse behavior is less likely to be important. This book is intended to (i) define the current state of the literature on agricultural risk research, (ii) provide a critical evaluation of economic risk research on agriculture to date and (iii) set a research agenda that will meet future needs and prospects. This type of research promises to become of increasing importance because agricultural policy in the United States and elsewhere has decidedly shifted from explicit income support objectives to risk-related motivations of helping farmers deal with risk. Beginning with the 1996 Farm Bill, the primary set of policy instruments from U.S. agriculture has shifted from target prices and set aside acreage to agricultural crop insurance. Because this book is intended to have specific implications for U.S. agricultural policy, it has a decidedly domestic scope, but clearly many of the issues have application abroad. For each of the papers and topics included in this volume, individuals have been selected to give the strongest and broadest possible treatment of each facet of the problem. The result is this comprehensive reference book on the economics of agricultural risk.
Inflation Expectations
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Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2009-12-16
Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Knowledge Beliefs And Economics
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Author : R. Arena
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2006-01-01
Knowledge Beliefs And Economics written by R. Arena and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-01-01 with Psychology categories.
The contributors to this book also suggest the need for a more integrated perspective on the meaning, as well as the role, of knowledge and beliefs in economics in the future. Possible lines of future research such as the extension of the concept of rationality in economics or the focus on cognitive processes in economic action are discussed.
Rethinking Expectations
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Author : Roman Frydman
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2013
Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with Business & Economics categories.
This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.
Consumer Expectations
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Author : Richard Thomas Curtin
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2019-02-07
Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-02-07 with Business & Economics categories.
Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.
The Rational Expectations Revolution
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Author : Preston J. Miller
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 1994
The Rational Expectations Revolution written by Preston J. Miller and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Business & Economics categories.
These 21 readings describe the orgins and growth of the macroeconomic analysis known as "rational expectations". The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s to the 1990s.