Assessing The Impact On Household Incomes And Poverty Of Declines In Remittances Due To Covid 19
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Assessing The Impact On Household Incomes And Poverty Of Declines In Remittances Due To Covid 19
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Author : Diao, Xinshen
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2020-06-08
Assessing The Impact On Household Incomes And Poverty Of Declines In Remittances Due To Covid 19 written by Diao, Xinshen and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-08 with Political Science categories.
Remittances are an important income source for the poor in Myanmar, particularly for low-income rural households. This policy note focuses on the likely impact on household income and poverty in Myanmar of declines in international and domestic remittances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We used a microsimulation model to do so.
Defying The Odds Remittances During The Covid 19 Pandemic
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Author : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-07-16
Defying The Odds Remittances During The Covid 19 Pandemic written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-07-16 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper provides an early assessment of the dynamics and drivers of remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a newly compiled monthly remittance dataset for a sample of 52 countries, of which 16 countries with bilateral remittance data. The paper documents a strong resilience in remittance flows, notwithstanding an unprecedent global recession triggered by the pandemic. Using the local projection approach to estimate the impulse response functions of remittance flows during Jan 2020-Dec 2020, the paper provides evidence that: (i) remittances responded positively to COVID-19 infection rates in migrant home countries, underscoring its role as an important automatic stabilizer; (ii) stricter containment measures have the unintended consequence of dampening remittances; and (iii) a shift from informal to formal remittance channels due to travel restrictions appears to have also played a role in the surge in formal remittances. Lastly, the size of the fiscal stimulus in host countries is positively associated with remittances as the fiscal response cushions the economic impact of the pandemic.
Assessing The Impacts Of Covid 19 On Household Incomes And Poverty In Myanmar A Microsimulation Approach
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Author : Diao, Xinshen
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2020-08-03
Assessing The Impacts Of Covid 19 On Household Incomes And Poverty In Myanmar A Microsimulation Approach written by Diao, Xinshen and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-08-03 with Political Science categories.
With policy measures imposed by governments around the world to contain and prevent the spread of COVID 19, global and domestic economic activities and trade flows have been interrupted. The unexpected shocks of COVID 19 negatively affect not only Myanmar’s economy, but also the livelihoods of Myanmar households. This Working Paper assesses such impacts at the household level using a microsimulation model based on the Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS) conducted in 2015.
Covid 19 Estimating Impact On The Economy And Poverty In Pakistan Using Sam Multiplier Model
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Author : Moeen, Muhammad Saad
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-01-23
Covid 19 Estimating Impact On The Economy And Poverty In Pakistan Using Sam Multiplier Model written by Moeen, Muhammad Saad and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-01-23 with Political Science categories.
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.
Assessing The Impacts Of Covid 19 On Household Incomes And Poverty In Rwanda A Microsimulation Approach
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Author : Diao, Xinshen
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-06-29
Assessing The Impacts Of Covid 19 On Household Incomes And Poverty In Rwanda A Microsimulation Approach written by Diao, Xinshen and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-29 with Political Science categories.
In Rwanda, as in other countries, different types of households will experience the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic differently. We use a microsimulation approach to highlight the importance of these differences and to draw attention to the diversified livelihood strategies of Rwandan households in order to fully understand COVID-19’s impacts on their income and poverty status. Our approach complements macro-level assessments of COVID-19’s economic impacts, focusing on the contribution of the income sources, asset holdings, and location (urban/rural) of households to understanding these differential effects.
Distributional Impacts Of Covid 19 In The Middle East And North Africa Region
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Author : Johannes G. Hoogeveen
language : en
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Release Date : 2021-12-20
Distributional Impacts Of Covid 19 In The Middle East And North Africa Region written by Johannes G. Hoogeveen and has been published by World Bank Publications this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-20 with Business & Economics categories.
COVID-19 is one of multiple crises to have hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in the decade following the Arab Spring. War, oil price declines, economic slowdowns, and now a pandemic are tearing at the social fabric of a region characterized by high rates of unemployment, high levels of informality, and low annual economic growth. The economic costs of the pandemic are estimated at about US$227 billion, and fiscal support packages across MENA are averaging 2.7 percent of GDP, putting pressure on already weak fiscal balances and making a quick recovery challenging. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, MENA was the only region in the world experiencing increases in poverty and declines in life satisfaction. Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region investigates how COVID-19 changed the welfare of individuals and households in the region. It does so by relying on phone surveys implemented across the region and complements these with microsimulation exercises to assess the impact of COVID-19 on jobs, income, poverty, and inequality. The two approaches complement and corroborate each other's results, thereby making the findings more robust and richer. This report's results show that, in the short run, poverty rates in MENA will increase significantly and inequality will widen. A group of 'new poor' is likely to emerge that may have difficulty recovering from the economic consequences of COVID-19. The report adds value by analyzing newly gathered primary data, along with projections based on newly modeled micro- and macrosimulations, and by identifying key issues that policy makers should focus on to enable a quick, inclusive, and sustained economic recovery.
Synopsis Assessing The Economywide Impacts Of Covid 19 On Rwanda S Economy Agri Food System And Poverty A Social Accounting Matrix Sam Multiplier Approach
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Author : Aragie, Emerta
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-06-01
Synopsis Assessing The Economywide Impacts Of Covid 19 On Rwanda S Economy Agri Food System And Poverty A Social Accounting Matrix Sam Multiplier Approach written by Aragie, Emerta and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-01 with Political Science categories.
Rwanda’s policy response to COVID-19 has been widely praised for its rapid, systematic, and comprehensive approach to containing the pandemic. Although the economic consequences of the actions taken are unavoidable, the country expects to return its economy to its high-growth trajectory as the pandemic subsides. We used economic modeling tools designed to estimate the short-term economywide impacts of the unanticipated, rapid-onset economic shocks of COVID-19 on Rwanda. In this brief, we present a synopsis of the results of this analysis. • During the six-week lockdown that began in March 2020, we estimate Rwanda’s GDP fell 39.1 percent (RWF 435 billion; USD 484 million) when compared to a no-COVID situation. • Rwanda’s GDP in 2020 will be between 12 and 16 percent lower than a predicted no-COVID GDP, depending on the pace of economic recovery. The losses in annual GDP are between RWF 1.0 and 1.5 trillion (USD 1.1 to 1.6 billion). • While GDP for the industrial and services sectors were estimated to have fallen during the lockdown period by 57 and 48 percent, respectively, exemptions of COVID-19 restrictions for the agricultural sector limited the decline in agricultural GDP to 7 percent compared to a no-COVID situation. • During the lockdown period, the national poverty rate is estimated to have increased by 10.9 percentage points as 1.3 million people, mostly in rural areas, fell into temporary poverty. Poverty rates are expected to stabilize by the end of 2020, increasing only by between 0.4 and 1.1 percentage points over the pre-COVID situation. While these figures are encouraging, they mask the impacts on poor households of the sharp poverty spike during the lockdown and the inherent complexity of poverty dynamics post-lockdown. Looking forward, the speed and success of Rwanda’s economic recovery will depend critically on expanding Rwanda’s social protection programs, supporting enterprises of all sizes, providing broad assistance to the agri-food system, and restoring international trade.
Remittances And Household Welfare Findings From The Myanmar Household Welfare Survey Mhws
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Author : Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA)
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2023-07-27
Remittances And Household Welfare Findings From The Myanmar Household Welfare Survey Mhws written by Myanmar Agriculture Policy Support Activity (MAPSA) and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-07-27 with Political Science categories.
Remittances are a critical source of household income in Myanmar and are significantly associated with positive welfare outcomes. In 2022, 33 percent of the households surveyed in the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) received remittances at least once in the twelve-month period. Remittances made up 7 percent of the average monthly per capita income of households in 2022. Among households that received remittances, 40 percent of their average monthly per capita income was from remittances. Considerably more households received remittances in 2022, compared to 2017, the last year for which there is nationally representative data (World Bank 2017). Despite the increase in the number of households receiving remittances, compared to 2017, the income share from remittances has decreased for all households. Even with internal lockdowns and border closures because of the COVID-19 pandemic, remittance senders migrated internally in 2020 and 2021. As a result, domestic remittance flows appear to have increased steadily since 2012. International remittance flows, on the other hand, decreased substantially during the first two years of the pandemic. They are now increasing rapidly. In 2022, households in Rakhine, Chin, Mon, and Kayin received the most remittances of the states/regions. Households in Chin, Kayin, Tanintharyi, and Mon received a greater percentage of remittances from international senders rather than domestic senders. Most international remittance flows were from Thailand, Malaysia, and China. Households in Kachin, Ayeyarwady, and Mandalay received the most remittances from domestic senders. Most domestic remittance flows were from Yangon, Mandalay, and Shan. Receiving remittances has a positive and significant association with improved welfare outcomes. Households that receive remittances are less likely to have lower income compared with last year and more likely to have a better food consumption score and a higher dietary diversity score. Households who receive remittances use fewer coping strategies. Finally, households who receive remittances are more likely to have an improved house made of brick, brick/wood, or semi-pucca.
Estimating The Economic Impacts Of The First Wave Of Covid 19 In Pakistan Using A Sam Multiplier Model
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Author : Moeen, Muhammad Saad
language : en
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Release Date : 2021-02-13
Estimating The Economic Impacts Of The First Wave Of Covid 19 In Pakistan Using A Sam Multiplier Model written by Moeen, Muhammad Saad and has been published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-13 with Political Science categories.
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis has been employed to assess the impacts of COVID-19 on various macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and poverty in Pakistan. SAM multiplier models are well-suited to estimate the direct and indirect effects of unanticipated demand-side shocks and short-term fluctuations on various sectors and agents in the economy, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that Pakistan’s GDP declined by 26.4 percent from mid-March to the end of June 2020 (14 weeks) compared to a non-COVID scenario. Services were hit the hardest, registering losses of 17.6 percent, followed by industry with losses of 6.7 percent. Agriculture turned out to be resilient and remained relatively unhurt, falling by 2.1 percent. All households witnessed a reduction in incomes, but higher-income quartiles appeared to have lost more than lower-income ones. Our approach for economic impact with mitigation measures is to assess the effectiveness of Emergency Response Packages (ERP) by altering the remittances to levels that reflect the magnitude of the support from the government. The total government expenditures were directed towards different kinds of households of PKR 318.6 billion (USD 2.12 billion). This led to a reduction of about USD 3.1 billion in GDP losses, which, compared to the amount spent implied a multiplier of 1.4 in GDP per PKR spent. The national poverty rate soared to 43 percent and 38.7 percent in April and May respectively. The Government’s cash transfers program proved highly effective and led to 11 percent reduction in poverty rate during the pandemic. The recovery scenarios indicate a cumulative GDP loss of USD 11.8 billion and 11.1 USD billion under slow and fast recovery scenarios, respectively, by December 2020. Our estimates show that Pakistan’s annual GDP (at market prices) will register a decline of 4.6 percent in the year 2020 due to negative effects of the pandemic and sluggish economic recovery. Poverty is expected to stabilize at 27.6 percent and 27.4 percent for the two recovery scenarios by December 2020.
Covid 19 Impacts On Smallholder Farmers In Northern Shan State In Myanmar
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Author : Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
language : en
Publisher: Food & Agriculture Org.
Release Date : 2021-12-22
Covid 19 Impacts On Smallholder Farmers In Northern Shan State In Myanmar written by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and has been published by Food & Agriculture Org. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-12-22 with Technology & Engineering categories.
Report on how the first wave of COVID-19 impacted on smallholder farmers in northern Shan State in Myanmar. The study examines the interactions of reduced border trade, remittances and contracted labour markets on household food security, nutrition and land tenure. In turn, tenure insecurity in rural areas may deepen the effects of COVID-19, as most rural people struggle to sustain their livelihoods through access to land and other natural resources. This is relevant as many ethnic groups in northern Shan State continue to manage their land through customary tenure systems that are not fully recognized by state authorities.