Bad News And Good Judgment

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Bad News And Good Judgment

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Author : Jim Pumarlo
language : en
Publisher: Marion Street Press, Inc.
Release Date : 2005

Bad News And Good Judgment written by Jim Pumarlo and has been published by Marion Street Press, Inc. this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Language Arts & Disciplines categories.

Helps editors of small-town newspapers decide how to report on sensitive issues such as suicides, sexual abuse, and accidents.

Good News And Bad News About The Judgment

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Author : Morris L. Venden
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982

Good News And Bad News About The Judgment written by Morris L. Venden and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Seventh-Day Adventists categories.

Good News Is Bad News Is Good News

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Author : William K. McElvaney
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1980

Good News Is Bad News Is Good News written by William K. McElvaney and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1980 with Liberation theology categories.

Superforecasting

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Author : Philip Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2015-09-24

Superforecasting written by Philip Tetlock and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-24 with Social Science categories.

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Expert Political Judgment

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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-08-29

Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-29 with Political Science categories.

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

The Ethical Challenges Of Academic Administration

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Author : Elaine E. Englehardt
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2009-09-18

The Ethical Challenges Of Academic Administration written by Elaine E. Englehardt and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-09-18 with Education categories.

This book is an invitation to academic administrators, at every level, to engage in reflection on the ethical dimensions of their working lives. Academics are very good at reflecting on the ethical issues in other professions but not so interested in reflecting on those in their own, including those faced by faculty and administrators. Yet it is a topic of great importance. Academic institutions are value-driven; hence virtually every decision made by an academic administrator has an ethical component with implications for students, faculty, the institution, and the broader community. Despite this, they receive little systematic preparation for this aspect of their professional lives when they take up administrative posts, especially when compared to, say, medical or legal training. Surprisingly little has been written about the ethical challenges that academic administrators are likely to face. Most of the literature relating to academic administration focuses on “leadership” and draws heavily on management and social science theory. The importance of focusing on ethical deliberation and decision-making often goes unrecognized.

Judgment Misguided

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Author : Jonathan Baron
language : en
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Release Date : 1998-05-21

Judgment Misguided written by Jonathan Baron and has been published by Oxford University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-05-21 with Psychology categories.

People often follow intuitive principles of decision making, ranging from group loyalty to the belief that nature is benign. But instead of using these principles as rules of thumb, we often treat them as absolutes and ignore the consequences of following them blindly. In Judgment Misguided, Jonathan Baron explores our well-meant and deeply felt personal intuitions about what is right and wrong, and how they affect the public domain. Baron argues that when these intuitions are valued in their own right, rather than as a means to another end, they often prevent us from achieving the results we want. Focusing on cases where our intuitive principles take over public decision making, the book examines some of our most common intuitions and the ways they can be misused. According to Baron, we can avoid these problems by paying more attention to the effects of our decisions. Written in a accessible style, the book is filled with compelling case studies, such as abortion, nuclear power, immigration, and the decline of the Atlantic fishery, among others, which illustrate a range of intuitions and how they impede the public's best interests. Judgment Misguided will be important reading for those involved in public decision making, and researchers and students in psychology and the social sciences, as well as everyone looking for insight into the decisions that affect us all.

The G 1 Manual

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1947

The G 1 Manual written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1947 with categories.

Murder And Mayhem At Old Bunbury

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Author : Clive Endive Ogive Iv
language : en
Publisher: Dog Ear Publishing
Release Date : 2010-08

Murder And Mayhem At Old Bunbury written by Clive Endive Ogive Iv and has been published by Dog Ear Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-08 with categories.

Murder and Mayhem at Old Bunbury, Clive Endive Ogive IV's eagerly awaited follow-up to his extremely successful and hugely influential Private Clubs in America and around the World, is another VERY clever and perceptive look into the special world of private clubs. In Murder and Mayhem at Old Bunbury, President Clive and waitress-extraordinaire Esther team up to solve a gruesome murder at one of the world's truly great private clubs: the Old Bunbury Golf Links & Reading Club. Along the way Clive and Esther reacquaint you with many wacky old friends and introduce you to some even zanier new ones. Private clubs are inextricably woven into the very fabric of America's history, traditions and culture-and for that matter, those histories, traditions and cultures of ALL free societies around the world-and members, employees and guests alike (well, maybe not guests) will enjoy the author's penetrating insights, off-beat humor, blatant irreverence and sarcastic wit. EVERYONE with a sense of humor (club member or not) will laugh his socks off at this latest Clive tale. Clive Endive Ogive IV belongs to at least eighteen very exclusive private clubs-certainly all the ones that matter. The fact that he has a Roman numeral four after his name and is exclusive heir to a trust fund whose annual interest is sufficient to pay all his annual club dues in perpetuity-and also somehow manages to write all this money off on his taxes as "legitimate business deductions"-is more than enough to qualify him to author multiple groundbreaking and awe-inspiring books about the wonderful world of private clubs. For more information-and to order additional copies for your friends, enemies, fellow club members and fellow club employees-please visit Clive's website at www.CliveEndiveOgiveIV.com. You may also to send your thoughts directly to Clive at [email protected].

Hearings Reports And Prints Of The House Committee On Appropriations

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Author : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1973

Hearings Reports And Prints Of The House Committee On Appropriations written by United States. Congress. House. Committee on Appropriations and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1973 with Finance, Public categories.