Expert Political Judgment
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Expert Political Judgment
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-08-29
Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-29 with Political Science categories.
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Expert Political Judgment
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-08-29
Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-29 with Political Science categories.
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Expert Political Judgment
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Author : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2005
Expert Political Judgment written by Philip Eyrikson Tetlock and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005 with Ideology categories.
Summary Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It How Can We Know By Philip E Tetlock
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Author : Shortcut Edition
language : en
Publisher: Shortcut Edition
Release Date : 2021-06-17
Summary Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It How Can We Know By Philip E Tetlock written by Shortcut Edition and has been published by Shortcut Edition this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-06-17 with Business & Economics categories.
* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will discover why being an expert in politics does not allow you to make more reliable forecasts than the average person. You will also learn : that the analysis of 30,000 forecasts has determined the real value of political predictions; that the forecasts of its experts have been put in competition with each other and compared to the forecasts made by algorithms; that opposing political speeches does not make democracy work; that experts remain indispensable despite their inability to make reliable forecasts; that the work, contrary to its ambition, has fed a whole populist and anti-elite current. "Expert Political Judgment" (EPJ) revolutionized Anglo-Saxon political science. For the first time, a rather arid "a priori" academic work fascinated the general public and immediately found its readers. Its author, Philip E. Tetlock, a psychologist by training and a specialist in political and organizational sciences, currently teaches at the University of Pennsylvania. EPJ has often been crudely reduced to the idea that experts, especially political experts, are as ignorant as others, and that their predictions are no more reliable than "darts thrown at random at a target by chimpanzees". This idea, although caricatured, is widespread, especially since it is all that the press has picked up on it. With this revolutionary book, he advocates applying to political decision-making the method that presided over the writing of the book, based on forecasting tournaments. Will EPJ be at the origin of the next democratic revolution? *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!
Superforecasting
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Author : Philip Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Random House
Release Date : 2015-09-24
Superforecasting written by Philip Tetlock and has been published by Random House this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-09-24 with Social Science categories.
The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times
R Sum Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It How Can We Know De Philip E Tetlock
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Author : Guy Dufour
language : fr
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018-11-15
R Sum Expert Political Judgment How Good Is It How Can We Know De Philip E Tetlock written by Guy Dufour and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-11-15 with categories.
Résumé - Expert Political Judgment : How Good Is It ? How Can We Know ? de Philip E. Tetlock Découvrez pourquoi être un expert en politique ne permet pas de faire des prévisions plus fiables que le commun des mortels. "Expert Political Judgment" (EPJ) a révolutionné les sciences politiques anglo-saxonnes. Pour la première fois, un ouvrage universitaire "a priori" plutôt aride a passionné le grand public et a immédiatement trouvé ses lecteurs. Son auteur, Philip E. Tetlock, psychologue de formation et spécialiste en sciences politiques et en sciences de l'organisation, enseigne actuellement à l'Université de Pennsylvanie. EPJ a souvent été grossièrement réduit à l'idée que les experts, et en particulier les experts politiques, sont aussi ignorants que les autres, et que leurs prévisions ne sont pas plus fiables que "des fléchettes lancées au hasard sur une cible par des chimpanzés". Cette idée, bien que caricaturale, est largement répandue, notamment car c'est tout ce que la presse en a retenu. Par ce livre révolutionnaire, il préconise d'appliquer à la prise de décision politique la méthode qui a présidé à la rédaction de l'ouvrage, fondée sur des tournois de prévisions. EPJ sera-t-il à l'origine de la prochaine révolution démocratique ?
The Hedgehog And The Fox
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Author : Isaiah Berlin
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2013-06-02
The Hedgehog And The Fox written by Isaiah Berlin and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-02 with Philosophy categories.
"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram.
Counterfactual Thought Experiments In World Politics
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2020-06-30
Counterfactual Thought Experiments In World Politics written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-30 with Political Science categories.
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Future Babble
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Author : Dan Gardner
language : en
Publisher: McClelland & Stewart
Release Date : 2010-10-12
Future Babble written by Dan Gardner and has been published by McClelland & Stewart this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-10-12 with Social Science categories.
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
The Crisis Of Expertise
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Author : Gil Eyal
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2019-10-24
The Crisis Of Expertise written by Gil Eyal and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-10-24 with Social Science categories.
In recent political debates there has been a significant change in the valence of the word “experts” from a superlative to a near pejorative, typically accompanied by a recitation of experts’ many failures and misdeeds. In topics as varied as Brexit, climate change, and vaccinations there is a palpable mistrust of experts and a tendency to dismiss their advice. Are we witnessing, therefore, the “death of expertise,” or is the handwringing about an “assault on science” merely the hysterical reaction of threatened elites? In this new book, Gil Eyal argues that what needs to be explained is not a one-sided “mistrust of experts” but the two-headed pushmi-pullyu of unprecedented reliance on science and expertise, on the one hand, coupled with increased skepticism and dismissal of scientific findings and expert opinion, on the other. The current mistrust of experts is best understood as one more spiral in an on-going, recursive crisis of legitimacy. The “scientization of politics,” of which critics warned in the 1960s, has brought about a politicization of science, and the two processes reinforce one another in an unstable, crisis-prone mixture. This timely book will be of great interest to students and scholars in the social sciences and to anyone concerned about the political uses of, and attacks on, scientific knowledge and expertise.