Counterfactual Thought Experiments In World Politics
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Counterfactual Thought Experiments In World Politics
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2020-06-30
Counterfactual Thought Experiments In World Politics written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-30 with Political Science categories.
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly.
Forbidden Fruit
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Author : Richard Ned Lebow
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2010-02-07
Forbidden Fruit written by Richard Ned Lebow and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-02-07 with History categories.
Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.
Counterfactual Thinking Counterfactual Writing
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Author : Dorothee Birke
language : en
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter
Release Date : 2011-11-30
Counterfactual Thinking Counterfactual Writing written by Dorothee Birke and has been published by Walter de Gruyter this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-11-30 with Literary Criticism categories.
Counterfactuality is currently a hotly debated topic. While for some disciplines such as linguistics, cognitive science, or psychology counterfactual scenarios have been an important object of study for quite a while, counterfactual thinking has in recent years emerged as a method of study for other disciplines, most notably the social sciences. This volume provides an overview of the current definitions and uses of the concept of counterfactuality in philosophy, historiography, political sciences, psychology, linguistics, physics, and literary studies. The individual contributions not only engage the controversies that the deployment of counterfactual thinking as a method still generates, they also highlight the concept’s potential to promote interdisciplinary exchange without neglecting the limitations and pitfalls of such a project. Moreover, the essays from literary studies, which make up about half of the volume, provide both a historical and a systematic perspective on the manifold ways in which counterfactual scenarios can be incorporated into and deployed in literary texts.
Expert Political Judgment
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Author : Philip E. Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-08-29
Expert Political Judgment written by Philip E. Tetlock and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-08-29 with Political Science categories.
Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Bridges And Boundaries
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Author : Colin Elman
language : en
Publisher: MIT Press
Release Date : 2001-04-13
Bridges And Boundaries written by Colin Elman and has been published by MIT Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-04-13 with History categories.
Bridges and Boundaries offers a conversation between what might loosely be described as traditionalist diplomatic and military historians, and political scientists who employ qualitative case study methods to examine international relations. The book opens with a series of chapters discussing differences, commonalities, and opportunities for cross-fertilization between the two disciplines.To help focus the dialogue on real events and research, the volume then revisits three empirical topics that have been studied at length by members of both disciplines: British hegemony in the nineteenth century; diplomacy in the interwar period and the causes of World War II; and the origins and course of the Cold War. For each of these subjects, a political scientist, a historian, and a commentator reflect on how disciplinary "guild rules" have shaped the study of international events. The book closes with incisive overviews by Robert Jervis and Paul W. Schroeder. Bridges and Boundaries explores how historians and political scientists can learn from one another and illustrates the possibilities that arise when open-minded scholars from different disciplines sit down to talk.
Unmaking The West
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Author : Philip Eyrikson Tetlock
language : en
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
Release Date : 2006
Unmaking The West written by Philip Eyrikson Tetlock and has been published by University of Michigan Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006 with History categories.
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Power Concentration In World Politics
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Author : William R. Thompson
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2020-06-10
Power Concentration In World Politics written by William R. Thompson and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-06-10 with Political Science categories.
This book discusses the role of space, time and cyclical behavior in world politics. More specifically, the political-economic role of lead economies – the world’s most innovative economies for finite periods of time – in world politics. These represent unusual concentrations of new technologies, energy sources, and military capabilities of global reach that play disproportional roles in the conduct of international affairs and the provision of limited governance at the most macro level. They also possess close links to economic growth and intense conflict. The book describes the economic, military and political processes behind the systemic leadership of a state at the international level. It also highlights the economic preconditions of systemic leadership, such as economic monopoly of new technologies and energy, which underlie the system leader’s material advantage over others. Analyzing lead economies and the evolution of power over a number of centuries, the author demonstrates how disruptions wrought by the emergence of new technologies and energy sources are partly responsible for global conflicts. This book appeals to international relations scholars as well as anyone interested in the political economy of systemic leadership, growth, and conflict in world politics.
Terms Of Inquiry
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Author : James W. Davis
language : en
Publisher: JHU Press
Release Date : 2005-06-07
Terms Of Inquiry written by James W. Davis and has been published by JHU Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2005-06-07 with Philosophy categories.
Introduction -- Of concepts and conceptualization -- Scientific concepts and the study of politics -- If-- maybe -- Social behavior and the indeterminacy of norms -- Methods for the production of practical knowledge.
Thought Experiments In Methodological And Historical Contexts
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Author :
language : en
Publisher: BRILL
Release Date : 2011-06-09
Thought Experiments In Methodological And Historical Contexts written by and has been published by BRILL this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011-06-09 with History categories.
By analysing thought experiments from various periods in the history of philosophy and science, the essays in this volume seek to clarify how thought experiments work, what their limits are, and what their conceptualisation could be.
Forbidden Fruit
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Author : Richard Ned Lebow
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2010-01-18
Forbidden Fruit written by Richard Ned Lebow and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-01-18 with Political Science categories.
Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.