Business Cycles Inflation And Forecasting
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Business Cycles Inflation And Forecasting
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Author : Geoffrey Hoyt Moore
language : en
Publisher: Ballinger Publishing Company
Release Date : 1980
Business Cycles Inflation And Forecasting written by Geoffrey Hoyt Moore and has been published by Ballinger Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1980 with Business & Economics categories.
Business Cycles
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Author : Victor Zarnowitz
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 1992-06-15
Business Cycles written by Victor Zarnowitz and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-06-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Victor Zarnowitz has long been a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting. These papers represent a carefully integrated and up-to-date study of business cycles, reexamining some of his earlier research as well as addressing recent developments in the literature and in history. In part one, Zarnowitz reviews with characteristic insight various theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories as well as more recent rational expectations and real business cycle theories. In doing so, he examines how the business cycle may have changed as the size of government, the exercise of fiscal and monetary policies, the openness of the economy to international forces, and the industrial structure have evolved over time. Emphasizing important research from the 1980s, Zarnowitz discusses in part two various measures of the trends and cycles in economic activity, including output, prices, inventories, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, equipment, and other economic variables. Here the author explores the duration and severity of U.S. business cycles over more than 150 years, and evaluates the ability of macro models to simulate past behavior of the economy. In part three the performance of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators is described and assessed and evidence is presented on the value of their composite measures. Finally, part four offers an analysis of the degree of success of large commercial forecasting firms and of many individual economists in predicting the course of inflation, real growth, unemployment, interest rates, and other key economic variables. Business Cycles is a timely study, certain tobecome a basic reference for professional forecasters and economists in government, academia, and the business community.
Business Cycles Inflation And Forecasting
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Author : Geoffrey Hoyt Moore
language : en
Publisher: Ballinger Publishing Company
Release Date : 1980
Business Cycles Inflation And Forecasting written by Geoffrey Hoyt Moore and has been published by Ballinger Publishing Company this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1980 with Business & Economics categories.
Business Cycles Indicators And Forecasting
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Author : James H. Stock
language : en
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Release Date : 2008-04-15
Business Cycles Indicators And Forecasting written by James H. Stock and has been published by University of Chicago Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-04-15 with Business & Economics categories.
The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Business Cycles And Depressions
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Author : David Glasner
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2013-12-16
Business Cycles And Depressions written by David Glasner and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-12-16 with Business & Economics categories.
Experts define, review, and evaluate economic fluctuations Economic and business uncertainty dominate today's economic analyses. This new Encyclopedia illuminates the subject by offering 323 original articles on every major aspect of business cycles, fluctuations, financial crises, recessions, and depressions. The work of more than 200 experts, including many of the leading researchers in the field, the articles cover a broad range of subjects, including capsule biographies of leading economists born before 1920. Individual entries explore banking panics, the cobweb cycle, consumer durables, the depression of 1937-1938, Otto Eckstein, Friedrich Engels, experimental price bubbles, forced savings, lass-Steagall Act, Friedrich hagen, qualitative indicators, use of macro-econometric models, monetary neutrality, Phillips Curve, Paul Samuelson, Say's law, supply-side recessions, James Tokin, trend and random wages, Thorstein Veblen, worker-job turnover, and more.
Leading Economic Indicators
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Author : Kajal Lahiri
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 1991
Leading Economic Indicators written by Kajal Lahiri and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Business & Economics categories.
Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
The Leading Economic Indicators And Business Cycles In The United States
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Author : John B. Guerard
language : en
Publisher: Springer Nature
Release Date : 2022-07-06
The Leading Economic Indicators And Business Cycles In The United States written by John B. Guerard and has been published by Springer Nature this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-07-06 with Business & Economics categories.
In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy and what to expect in the near and distant future. Beginning with a historic look at major contributions to economic indicators and business cycles starting with Wesley Clair Mitchell (1913) to Burns and Mitchell (1946), to Moore (1961) and Zarnowitz (1992), this book explores time series forecasting and economic cycles, which are currently maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given their highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, these relationships are particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles.
Business Cycles
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Author : Francis X. Diebold
language : en
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2020-10-06
Business Cycles written by Francis X. Diebold and has been published by Princeton University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-10-06 with Business & Economics categories.
This is the most sophisticated and up-to-date econometric analysis of business cycles now available. Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch have long been acknowledged as leading experts on business cycles. And here they present a highly integrative collection of their most important essays on the subject, along with a detailed introduction that draws together the book's principal themes and findings. Diebold and Rudebusch use the latest quantitative methods to address five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. They ask whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower. They consider whether economic expansions and contractions tend to die of "old age." Contrary to popular wisdom, they find little evidence that expansions become more fragile the longer they last, although they do find that contractions are increasingly likely to end as they age. The authors discuss the defining characteristics of business cycles, focusing on how economic variables move together and on the timing of the slow alternation between expansions and contractions. They explore the difficulties of distinguishing between long-term trends in the economy and cyclical fluctuations. And they examine how business cycles can be forecast, looking in particular at how to predict turning points in cycles, rather than merely the level of future economic activity. They show here that the index of leading economic indicators is a poor predictor of future economic activity, and consider what we can learn from other indicators, such as financial variables. Throughout, the authors make use of a variety of advanced econometric techniques, including nonparametric analysis, fractional integration, and regime-switching models. Business Cycles is crucial reading for policymakers, bankers, and business executives.
Hysteresis And Business Cycles
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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29
Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Analyzing Modern Business Cycles
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Author : Philip Klein
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2017-10-03
Analyzing Modern Business Cycles written by Philip Klein and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-10-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This title was first published in 1990. A collection of essays on Business Cycles, celebrating Geoffrey H. Moore on his 75th birthday, who joined the National Bureau of Economic Research in 1939 and was also Professor Emeriutus at New York University. He progressed through many levels research assistant, staff member, associate director of research, director of research, vice president of research, director of business cycle research, and most recently membership on the Bureau’s Board of Directors and its Executive and other Committees. Moore ws prominenty involved in the creation, development, and continuing improvement of a system of leading, lagging, and coincident indicators was an achievement of greatest importance.