Calibrating Macroprudential Policies In Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
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Calibrating Macroprudential Policies In Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
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Author : Ms. Laura Valderrama
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-03-24
Calibrating Macroprudential Policies In Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability written by Ms. Laura Valderrama and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-03-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
Oecd Economic Surveys European Union And Euro Area 2023
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2023-09-21
Oecd Economic Surveys European Union And Euro Area 2023 written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-21 with categories.
The European recovery has been disrupted since the onset of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Co-ordinated and timely policy action helped avoid a severe downturn, but the near-term outlook is clouded by uncertainty and downside risks. Monetary and fiscal policy need to become sufficiently restrictive to reduce underlying inflationary pressures durably.
Navigating Higher Rates Volatility And Liquidity Crises
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Author : Andreas Dombret
language : en
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Release Date : 2024-12-16
Navigating Higher Rates Volatility And Liquidity Crises written by Andreas Dombret and has been published by Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-12-16 with Law categories.
When central banks started raising interest rates in reaction to the spike in inflation which followed the COVID-19 epidemic, they put an end to a more than a decade of "low for longer" interest rates to which the financial sector had adjusted their balance sheets and business models. The resulting "new monetary order" has required all parts of the financial sector to make serious adjustments. The fate of the US and Swiss banks caught up in the March 2023 "bank turmoil" can be seen as a cautionary tale for those who do not adjust in a timely fashion. This book reviews how the financial sector evolved during "low for longer" and examines how monetary policy, financial regulation and supervision, the banking and the non-bank financial sectors can be expected to evolve under this new order.
Iceland
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Author : International Monetary
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-06-23
Iceland written by International Monetary and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-06-23 with Business & Economics categories.
Iceland has recovered from the shocks of recent years faster than envisaged and scarring from the pandemic is expected to be minimal. The recovery reflects pent-up demand from the pandemic, a rebound of the tourism industry, rapid immigration, and the fact that, unlike most European countries, Iceland experienced an improvement in its terms of trade in 2022. The economy is currently operating above potential. Absent an adjustment in policies, imbalances are likely to increase. Risks are tilted to the downside.
Ireland
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2023-12-15
Ireland written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-12-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Ireland: Selected Issues
A Semi Structural Model For Credit Cycle And Policy Analysis An Application For Luxembourg
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Author : Carlos de Resende
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-07-09
A Semi Structural Model For Credit Cycle And Policy Analysis An Application For Luxembourg written by Carlos de Resende and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-07-09 with categories.
The paper explores the nexus between the financial and business cycles in a semi-structural New Keynesian model with a financial accelerator, an active banking sector, and an endogenous macroprudential policy reaction function. We parametrize the model for Luxembourg through a mix of calibration and Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features dynamic properties that align with theoretical priors and empirical evidence and displays sensible data-matching and forecasting capabilities, especially for credit indicators. We find that the credit gap, which remained positive during COVID-19 amid continued favorable financial conditions and policy support, had been closing by mid-2022. Model-based forecasts using data up to 2022Q2 and conditional on the October 2022 WEO projections for the Euro area suggest that Luxembourg's business and credit cycles would deteriorate until late 2024. Based on these insights about the current and projected positions in the credit cycle, the model can guide policymakers on how to adjust the macroprudential policy stance. Policy simulations suggest that the weights given to measures of credit-to-GDP and asset price gaps in the macroprudential policy rule should be well-calibrated to avoid unwarranted volatility in the policy response.
Tudes Conomiques De L Ocde Union Europ Enne Et Zone Euro 2023
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Author : OECD
language : fr
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2023-09-06
Tudes Conomiques De L Ocde Union Europ Enne Et Zone Euro 2023 written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023-09-06 with categories.
En Europe, la reprise a été mise à mal par le déclenchement de la guerre d'agression menée par la Russie contre l’Ukraine. Les mesures coordonnées prises rapidement par les pouvoirs publics, au niveau de l’UE et dans les pays, ont permis d’éviter une grave récession, mais les perspectives à court terme sont entourées d’incertitudes et de risques à la baisse.
Denmark
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-09-13
Denmark written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-13 with categories.
Denmark has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of the energy crisis, high inflation, and tighter financial conditions. In recent years, growth has been increasingly driven by an exceptional surge in the pharmaceutical sector, while the rest of the economy has largely stagnated. Staff expect robust growth to continue in the near term, driven by pharmaceutical exports, the reopening of the Tyra natural gas field, and a gradual recovery in the non-pharmaceutical sectors. With the sharp decrease in global energy prices and lackluster domestic demand, inflation has fallen sharply. The positive outlook is, however, clouded by considerable external risks, most notably geopolitical tensions. The financial system has remained stable, although risks remain due to still-high interest rates and vulnerabilities in the commercial real estate markets.
Luxembourg
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-06-24
Luxembourg written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-06-24 with categories.
Strong policy support and high financial buffers are helping the financial sector weather the consecutive shocks, but pre-pandemic vulnerabilities have continued to rise. Ultra loose financial conditions, in part as a consequence of ECB’s monetary policy, have contributed to increased households’ indebtedness and stretched asset prices. Specifically, real estate prices had grown rapidly over 2018–22 with signs of overvaluation. Households’ indebtedness continued to rise, although partly mitigated by high households’ net wealth. These mounting real estate vulnerabilities prompted measures from the authorities, including on the macroprudential front, that bolstered the resilience of the banking sector but had mixed effects on the risk profile of new mortgages. The average LTV has dropped but the impact on DSTI and DTI has been more muted.
Norway
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Author : International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2024-09-18
Norway written by International Monetary Fund. European Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2024-09-18 with categories.
Norway’s economy continues to perform strongly, reflecting strong policy frameworks and policy implementation, solid fiscal and banking system buffers, and a comprehensive social safety net. A few important challenges that need to be addressed include boosting labor supply, containing public expenditure pressures, and raising productivity.