Cds Spreads In European Periphery

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Cds Spreads In European Periphery

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Author : Mr.Mohsan Bilal
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-03-01

Cds Spreads In European Periphery written by Mr.Mohsan Bilal and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-03-01 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper looks at some technical issues when using CDS data, and if these are incorporated, the analysis or regression results are likely to benefit. The paper endorses the use of stochastic recovery in CDS models when estimating probability of default (PD) and suggests that stochastic recovery may be a better harbinger of distress signals than fixed recovery. Similarly, PDs derived from CDS data are risk-neutral and may need to be adjusted when extrapolating to real world balance sheet and empirical data (e.g. estimating banks losses, etc). Another technical issue pertains to regressions trying to explain CDS spreads of sovereigns in peripheral Europe - the model specification should be cognizant of the under-collateralization aspects in the overall OTC derivatives market. One of the biggest drivers of CDS spreads in the region has been the CVA teams of the large banks that hedge their exposure stemming from derivative receivables due to non-posting of collateral by many sovereigns (and related entities).

Sovereign Cds Spreads In Europe

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Author : Mr.Frigyes F Heinz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-01-28

Sovereign Cds Spreads In Europe written by Mr.Frigyes F Heinz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-28 with Business & Economics categories.

By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.

Disentangling Contagion Among Sovereign Cds Spreads During The European Debt Crisis

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Author : Carmen Broto
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2013

Disentangling Contagion Among Sovereign Cds Spreads During The European Debt Crisis written by Carmen Broto and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013 with categories.

What Is The Risk Of European Sovereign Debt Defaults

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Author : Joshua Aizenman
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2011

What Is The Risk Of European Sovereign Debt Defaults written by Joshua Aizenman and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2011 with Economics categories.

We estimate the pricing of sovereign risk for sixty countries based on fiscal space (debt/tax; deficits/tax) and other economic fundamentals over 2005-10. We measure how accurately the model predicts sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, focusing in particular on the five countries in the South-West Eurozone Periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Dynamic panel estimates of the model suggest that fiscal space and other macroeconomic factors are statistically significant and economically important determinants of market-based sovereign risk. Although the explanatory power of fiscal space measures drop during the crisis, the TED spread, trade openness, external debt and inflation play a larger role. As expectations of market volatility jumped during the crisis, the weakly concavity of creditors' payoff probably accounts for the emergence of TED spread as a key pricing factor. However, risk-pricing of the South-West Eurozone Periphery countries is not predicted accurately by the model either in-sample or out-of-sample: unpredicted high spreads are evident during global crisis period, especially in 2010 when the sovereign debt crisis swept over the periphery area. We "match" the periphery group with five middle income countries outside Europe that were closest in terms of fiscal space during the European fiscal crisis. We find that Eurozone periphery default risk is priced much higher than the "matched" countries in 2010, even allowing for differences in fundamentals. One interpretation is that the market has mispriced risk in the Eurozone periphery. An alternative interpretation is that the market is pricing not on current fundamentals but future fundamentals, expecting the periphery fiscal space to deteriorate markedly and posing a high risk of debt restructuring. Adjustment challenges of the Eurozone periphery may be perceived as economically and politically more difficult than the matched group of middle income countries because of exchange rate and monetary constraints.

Investor Information And Bank Instability During The Euro Crisis

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Author : Silvia Iorgova
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2021-01-08

Investor Information And Bank Instability During The Euro Crisis written by Silvia Iorgova and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-01-08 with Business & Economics categories.

Outside of financial crises, investors have little incentive to produce private information on banks’ short-term liabilities held as information-insensitive safe assets. The same does not hold true during crises. We measure daily information production using data from credit default swap spreads during the global financial crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis. We study abnormal information production around major events and interventions during these crises and find that, on average, capital injections reduced abnormal information production while early European stress tests increased it. We also link information production to outcomes: high levels of information production predict bank balance sheet contraction and higher government expenditures to support financial institutions. In an addendum, we show information production on nonfinancials dramatically increased relative to financials at the height of the COVID-19 crisis, reflecting the nonfinancial nature of the initial shock.

Sovereign Cds Spreads In Europe

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Author : Mr.Frigyes F Heinz
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-01-28

Sovereign Cds Spreads In Europe written by Mr.Frigyes F Heinz and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-28 with Business & Economics categories.

By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.

The World Scientific Handbook Of Futures Markets

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Author : Anastasios G. E. T. Al MALLIARIS
language : en
Publisher: World Scientific
Release Date : 2015-08-06

The World Scientific Handbook Of Futures Markets written by Anastasios G. E. T. Al MALLIARIS and has been published by World Scientific this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-06 with Business & Economics categories.

"The World Scientific Handbook of Futures Markets serves as a definitive source for comprehensive and accessible information in futures markets. The emphasis is on the unique characteristics of futures markets that make them worthy of a special volume. In our judgment, futures markets are currently undergoing remarkable changes as trading is shifting from open outcry to electronic and as the traditional functions of hedging and speculation are extended to include futures as an alternative investment vehicle in traditional portfolios. The unique feature of this volume is the selection of five classic papers that lay the foundations of the futures markets and the invitation to the leading academics who do work in the area to write critical surveys in a dozen important topics."--$cProvided by publisher.

Managing Risks In The European Periphery Debt Crisis

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Author : G. Christodoulakis
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2014-12-23

Managing Risks In The European Periphery Debt Crisis written by G. Christodoulakis and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-23 with Business & Economics categories.

The European Periphery Debt Crisis (EPDC) has its roots in the structural characteristics of the individual economies affected. This book offers a full diagnosis of the EPDC, its association to the national and international structural characteristics and a full analysis from a risk management point of view of the available policy options.

Credit Default Swaps

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Author : Marti Subrahmanyam
language : en
Publisher: Now Publishers
Release Date : 2014-12-19

Credit Default Swaps written by Marti Subrahmanyam and has been published by Now Publishers this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-12-19 with Business & Economics categories.

Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.

Managing The Sovereign Bank Nexus

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Author : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-09-07

Managing The Sovereign Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-07 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.