China S Productivity Convergence And Growth Potential
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China S Productivity Convergence And Growth Potential A Stocktaking And Sectoral Approach
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Author : Min Zhu
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-11-27
China S Productivity Convergence And Growth Potential A Stocktaking And Sectoral Approach written by Min Zhu and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-27 with Business & Economics categories.
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
China S Productivity Convergence And Growth Potential
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Author : Min Zhu
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017
China S Productivity Convergence And Growth Potential written by Min Zhu and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with China categories.
"China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. The authors find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence."--Abstract.
A Research On China S Economic Growth Potential
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Author : Chong-en Bai
language : en
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Release Date : 2017-06-26
A Research On China S Economic Growth Potential written by Chong-en Bai and has been published by Taylor & Francis this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-06-26 with Business & Economics categories.
After impressive growth of about 10% per annum for three decades, China's visible signs of economic slowdown since 2008 have been subject to much contention. What causes the deceleration? What should we expect in an era of China's 6% growth? This book answers these questions in three parts. Although it is widely accepted that China can hardly continue its high-speed growth model, estimations for its future growth potential differ greatly. The first part of this book predicts China's growth to 2050, which considers both cross-country historical experiences and China's own demographic structure and employment participation features. In the second part, the book offers a comprehensive estimation of China's national and provincial total factor productivity (TFP) over the period of 1978 to 2014 based on comparable data. It then analyzes the causes of China's economic slowdown from a productivity point of view. Finally, this book correspondingly outlines policy recommendations, including supply-side structural reform and macroeconomic policy frameworks, to effectively address the issue of decline in both labor and labor productivity growth. This book will attract scholars and students of economics and China's economic studies.
China S Productivity Slowdown And Future Growth Potential
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Author : Loren Brandt
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020
China S Productivity Slowdown And Future Growth Potential written by Loren Brandt and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with categories.
Enhancing China S Medium Term Growth Prospects
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Author : Mr.Malhar Nabar
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-10-02
Enhancing China S Medium Term Growth Prospects written by Mr.Malhar Nabar and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-10-02 with Business & Economics categories.
China’s current growth model—which has delivered steady and robust growth for two decades and lifted some 500 million individuals out of poverty—has become too reliant on credit and investment, and has begun to experience diminishing returns. Delays in advancing the government’s reform agenda will mean that vulnerabilities continue to grow and the probability of stalled convergence increases. On the other hand, with reforms to accelerate TFP growth and shift the economy away from its continued reliance on capital accumulation, China can grow at a healthy pace and maintain its convergence toward the level of high income economies. Evidence from China’s provinces indicates that there is room to improve productivity and sustain such a convergence toward the level of more prosperous economies.
Openness Economic Growth And Regional Disparities
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Author : Yanqing Jiang
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2013-11-29
Openness Economic Growth And Regional Disparities written by Yanqing Jiang and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-11-29 with Business & Economics categories.
Substantial disparities across different Chinese regions are one of the most prominent features in China’s development process. This book investigates the mechanisms through which openness affects regional economic growth and interregional disparities in China. Based on the latest data and employing a variety of panel data regression techniques, it provides readers with new findings that shed light on the effects of openness on China’s regional economic growth and the evolution of the country’s interregional disparities.
Economic Convergence In Greater China
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Author : Chun Kwok Lei
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2008-12-08
Economic Convergence In Greater China written by Chun Kwok Lei and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-12-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Although China's economy has grown very rapidly in recent decades, there are still very large differences between the economy of mainland China and the economies of Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. For example, per capita income in Hong Kong is many, many times higher than per capita income in mainland China. This book considers the degree to which economic convergence between mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan has occurred, and the prospects for increased convergence in the future. It considers economic integration between China and its two Special Administrative Regions (SARS), emphasising the large volume of capital flows and exports, especially from Hong Kong into China, and showing that the economies are highly integrated, despites their differences. It examines income convergence, and changes in productivity, using the same measures for both China and the two SARS, unlike most existing studies. It explores how economic reforms have been crucial to increasing convergence so far, and will continue to be in the future, and concludes by discussing the implications for policy of encouraging increased convergence.
China S Economic Growth Prospects
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Author : Cai Fang
language : en
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Release Date : 2016-01-29
China S Economic Growth Prospects written by Cai Fang and has been published by Edward Elgar Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-01-29 with Business & Economics categories.
China has grown rapidly since the reform initiation of the 1970s. China’s Economic Growth Prospects narrates the contribution of demographic transition to recent economic growth in China, and provides suggestions for ways in which it can sustain growth over the next few decades. The expert author provides reasons for the economic slowdown since the second decade of the twenty-first century; explores the challenges facing China’s long-term sustainability of growth with the disappearance of demographic dividend; and proposes policy suggestions. He concludes that, in order to avoid the middle-income trap, economic growth in China must transform from an inputs-driven pattern, to a productivity-driven pattern. Academics, researchers and students of economics and business, particularly those specialising in China, will find this book to be a useful resource. Investment bankers, journalists, politicians and policy makers will find the discussions of past experience and the future potential of the Chinese economy to be of interest.
A Research On China S Economic Growth Potential
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Author : Chong-En Bai
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2017
A Research On China S Economic Growth Potential written by Chong-En Bai and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017 with Business & Economics categories.
After impressive growth of about 10% per annum for three decades, China's visible signs of economic slowdown since 2008 have been subject to much contention. What causes the deceleration? What should we expect in an era of China's 6% growth? This book answers these questions in three parts. Although it is widely accepted that China can hardly continue its high-speed growth model, estimations for its future growth potential differ greatly. The first part of this book predicts China's growth to 2050, which considers both cross-country historical experiences and China's own demographic structure and employment participation features. In the second part, the book offers a comprehensive estimation of China's national and provincial total factor productivity (TFP) over the period of 1978 to 2014 based on comparable data. It then analyzes the causes of China's economic slowdown from a productivity point of view. Finally, this book correspondingly outlines policy recommendations, including supply-side structural reform and macroeconomic policy frameworks, to effectively address the issue of decline in both labor and labor productivity growth. This book will attract scholars and students of economics and China's economic studies.
Economic Growth And Convergence
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Author : Robert J. Barro
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994
Economic Growth And Convergence written by Robert J. Barro and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Convergence (Economics) categories.