Common Trends And Hysteresis In Unemployment

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Common Trends And Hysteresis In Unemployment

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Author : Tor Jacobson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994

Common Trends And Hysteresis In Unemployment written by Tor Jacobson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with categories.

Common Trends And Hysteresis In Unemployment

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Author : Tor Jacobson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1994

Common Trends And Hysteresis In Unemployment written by Tor Jacobson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1994 with Employment (Economic theory) categories.

Spanish Regional Unemployment

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Author : Alejandro García-Cintado
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2014-01-18

Spanish Regional Unemployment written by Alejandro García-Cintado and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-01-18 with Business & Economics categories.

This work investigates the time series properties of the unemployment rate of the Spanish regions over the period 1976-2011. For that purpose, the authors employ the PANIC procedures of Bai and Ng (2004), which allows to decompose the observed unemployment rate series into common factor and idiosyncratic components. This enables the authors to identify the exact source behind the hysteretic behaviour found in Spanish regional unemployment. Overall, the analysis with three different proxies for the excess of labour supply renders strong support for the hysteresis hypothesis, which appears to be caused by a common stochastic trend driving all the regional unemployment series. In the second part of the analysis the authors try to determine the macroeconomic and institutional factors that are able to explain the time series evolution of the common factor, and in turn help us shed light on the ultimate sources of hysteresis. The reader shall see how the variables that the empirical analysis emphasises as relevant closely fit into the main causes of the Spanish unemployment behaviour. Finally, some policy considerations drawn from the results are presented.

Hysteresis In Labor Markets Evidence From Professional Long Term Forecasts

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Author : Mr.John C Bluedorn
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-05-23

Hysteresis In Labor Markets Evidence From Professional Long Term Forecasts written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-23 with Business & Economics categories.

We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects.

Hysteresis And Business Cycles

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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29

Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Some Further Evidence On Hysteresis In Unemployment Rates

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Author : Bengt Assarsson
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1995

Some Further Evidence On Hysteresis In Unemployment Rates written by Bengt Assarsson and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1995 with categories.

Hysteresis In Unemployment And Jobless Recoveries

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Author : Dmitry Plotnikov
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-05-06

Hysteresis In Unemployment And Jobless Recoveries written by Dmitry Plotnikov and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium rational expectations model with search and multiple equilibria where aggregate shocks have a permanent effect on the unemployment rate. If agents' wealth decreases, the unemployment rate increases for a potentially indefinite period. This makes unemployment rate dynamics path dependent as in Blanchard and Summers (1987). I argue that this feature explains the persistence of the unemployment rate in the U.S. after the Great Recession and over the entire postwar period.

Hysteresis In Unemployment

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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1990

Hysteresis In Unemployment written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990 with categories.

Unemployment Crisis

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Author : Brian K. MacLean
language : en
Publisher: McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
Release Date : 1996-09-09

Unemployment Crisis written by Brian K. MacLean and has been published by McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996-09-09 with Business & Economics categories.

Arguing that the consequences of the unemployment crisis could have been avoided by better government policies, particularly less restrictive monetary control, the contributors examine the effect of the zero-inflation policy adopted by the Bank of Canada and the role of unemployment insurance on the unemployment crisis of recent years. Their analysis includes discussion of various facets of unemployment in France, Germany, and Japan for comparison. Contents Introduction - Brian K. MacLean and Lars Osberg Digging a Hole or Laying the Foundation? The Objectives of Macroeconomic Policy in Canada - Lars Osberg The Unbearable Lightness of Zero-Inflation Optimism - Pierre Fortin (UQAM) Real Interest Rates and Unemployment - John Smithin (York) Using the NAIRU as a Basis for Macroeconomic Policy: An Evaluation - Mark Setterfield (Trinity College) Does Unemployment Insurance Increase Unemployment? - Shelley Phipps (Dalhousie) Why Do We Know So Little About Unemployment Determination and UI Effects? - Tony Myatt (UNB) Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment - Revisited - Lars Osberg The Rise of Unemployment in Ontario - Andrew Sharpe (Centre for the Study of Living Standards) Unemployment among Canada's Aboriginal Peoples - Helmar Drost (York) Unemployment Persistence in France and Germany - Dominique Gross (Simon Fraser) Low Unemployment in Japan: The Product of Socio-economic Coherence - Patrice de Broucker (Statistics Canada) A Macroeconomic Policy Package for the 1990s - Mike McCracken (Informetrica). Both critical of past performance and optimistic about future possibilities, The Unemployment Crisis makes a timely and valuable addition to current literature on economic policy.

Some Evidence On Hysteresis In Unemployment Rates

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Author : Albert Jaeger
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1991

Some Evidence On Hysteresis In Unemployment Rates written by Albert Jaeger and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991 with Employment (Economic theory) categories.