Hysteresis In Labor Markets Evidence From Professional Long Term Forecasts

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Hysteresis In Labor Markets Evidence From Professional Long Term Forecasts

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Author : Mr.John C Bluedorn
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-05-24

Hysteresis In Labor Markets Evidence From Professional Long Term Forecasts written by Mr.John C Bluedorn and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-05-24 with Business & Economics categories.

We explore the long-term impact of economic booms on labor market outcomes using a novel approach based on revisions to professional forecasts over the past 30 years for 34 advanced economies. We find that when employment rises unexpectedly, forecasters typically raise their long-term forecasts of employment by more than one-for-one and also expect a strong rise in labor force participation, suggesting more persistent effects than is traditionally assumed. Economic booms associated with changes in aggregate demand, when inflation is rising and unemployment falling unexpectedly, also come with persistent long-term effects on expected employment and labor force participation, suggesting positive hysteresis. Our forecast evaluation tests indicate that forecasters are, on average, unbiased in their assessment of these positive, persistent effects.

Hysteresis Effects In Economic Models

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Author : Wolfgang Franz
language : en
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Release Date : 2012-12-06

Hysteresis Effects In Economic Models written by Wolfgang Franz and has been published by Springer Science & Business Media this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-12-06 with Business & Economics categories.

This volume is devoted to the hysteresis phenomenon in economic relationships. This topic has received renewed attention in economics especially in the late eigh ties. Since the issue is not settled there is still a growing literature on it. The aim of this volume is to summarize the findings, present new results, and to draw attention to further research. All papers are written for this volume and are not published elsewhere. I am very grateful to all authors and referees without whose prompt and generous help this volume would not appear in the present form. A short summary of each paper is given in section 5 of the overview paper. Konstanz, January 1990 Wolfgang Franz University of Konstanz Contents Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview W. Franz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Hysteresis in Trade R. Baldwin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Some Evidence on the Membership Hysteresis Hypothesis in Europe M. C. Burda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Insider-Outsider Influences on Industry Wages D. T. Coe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment An Unobserved Components Approach A. Jaeger and M. Parkinson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Unemployment and Deterioration of Human Capital J. Moller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Hysteresis, Nairn and Long Term Unemployment in Austria P. Neudorfer, K. Pichelmann and M. Wagner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview l By W. Franz Can the socialist man be created so as not to show any hysteresis trace of his bourgois or peasant past? N. Georgescu-Roegen (l971. p. 126) 1 Introduction The hysteresis phenomenon has received renewed attention in economic science.

Hysteresis And Business Cycles

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Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2020-05-29

Hysteresis And Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020-05-29 with Business & Economics categories.

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Recessions And Local Labor Market Hysteresis

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Author : Brad J. Hershbein
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2020

Recessions And Local Labor Market Hysteresis written by Brad J. Hershbein and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2020 with Labor market categories.

This paper studies the effects of each U.S. recession since 1973 on local labor markets. We find that recession-induced declines in employment are permanent, suggesting that local areas experience permanent declines in labor demand relative to less-affected areas. Population also falls, primarily due to reduced in-migration, but by less than employment. As a result, recessions generate long-lasting hysteresis: persistent decreases in the employment-to-population ratio and earnings per capita. Changes in the composition of workers explain less than half of local hysteresis. We further show that finite sample bias in vector autoregressions leads to artificial convergence, which can explain why some previous work finds no evidence of hysteresis in employment rates.

United States

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Author : International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-06-24

United States written by International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.

The U.S. economy is in the longest expansion in recorded history. Unemployment is at levels not seen since the late 1960s, real wages are rising, and inflationary pressures remain subdued. Economic activity, while still growing above potential, is expected to slow to around 2.6 percent this year and 1.9 percent in 2020.

Hysteresis And Labour Market Institutions

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Author : Antonio Rodriguez Gil
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016

Hysteresis And Labour Market Institutions written by Antonio Rodriguez Gil and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.

This paper uses data for the UK and the Netherlands (1983q4-2011q4) to test if hysteresis occurs in these economics, and through what mechanisms. The novelty of the paper resides in the use of a VAR-IRF that encompasses previous hysteresis studies and the use of specific Labour Market Institutions shocks. This allows us to disentangle what specific demand and supply-variables affect unemployment in the long-run. Further we also investigate the impact of different supply and demand-shock on long-term unemployment. Our findings suggest that there is hysteresis in both countries, and that it happens through different channels, namely, long-term unemployment, productivity, capital stock and real long-term interest rates. These results have implications for structural and macroeconomic policies that we also discuss.

Some Like It Hot

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Author : Julie L. Hotchkiss
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018

Some Like It Hot written by Julie L. Hotchkiss and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018 with categories.

This paper explores the evidence for positive hysteresis in the labor market. Using data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth, we find that negative labor market outcomes during high unemployment periods are mitigated by exposure to a high-pressure economy during the preceding expansion. Breaking total exposure into average intensity and duration, suggests that these two dimensions have differing impacts depending on the outcome. Additionally, benefits are typically only statistically significantly different from no exposure for only a relatively few demographic groups.

European Economic Governance After The Eurozone And Covid 19 Crises

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Author : Ioannis Papadopoulos
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge Scholars Publishing
Release Date : 2022-02-15

European Economic Governance After The Eurozone And Covid 19 Crises written by Ioannis Papadopoulos and has been published by Cambridge Scholars Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2022-02-15 with Political Science categories.

The COVID-19 health crisis came as a tremendous shock to the world, and to the EU more particularly, only a few years after the Eurozone crisis. The pandemic exacerbated the old structural differences in the economic models between the South and the North of Europe. However, this time, the response of the EU was of a completely different nature: an impressive array of fiscal and monetary policy instruments was mobilized to counteract the shock of the pandemic and to restore confidence. Is there reason to be optimistic in these times of uncertainty? This volume explores possible answers to this question, bringing together several renowned European intellectuals and experts from the fields of economics, law, and public policy to offer their thoughts. The book will stimulate discussion on the quality of institutions and growth sustainability, and contains ideas on the future of Europe and the reorganization of European economic governance. It analyzes the basic fiscal and monetary policy tools used by the EU to tackle the Eurozone and COVID-19 pandemic crises. Several aspects of the EU Banking Union and possible structural reforms of the banking sector are also discussed, as is the role of Credit Rating Agencies as tools of economic prediction.

The Phillips Curve And Labor Markets

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Author : Karl Brunner
language : en
Publisher: North-Holland
Release Date : 1976

The Phillips Curve And Labor Markets written by Karl Brunner and has been published by North-Holland this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1976 with Business & Economics categories.

Labor Market Institutions And The Cost Of Recessions

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Author : Mr.Tom Krebs
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2017-04-03

Labor Market Institutions And The Cost Of Recessions written by Mr.Tom Krebs and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-04-03 with Business & Economics categories.

This paper studies the effect of two labor market institutions, unemployment insurance (UI) and job search assistance (JSA), on the output cost and welfare cost of recessions. The paper develops a tractable incomplete-market model with search unemployment, skill depreciation during unemployment, and idiosyncratic as well as aggregate labor market risk. The theoretical analysis shows that an increase in JSA and a reduction in UI reduce the output cost of recessions by making the labor market more fluid along the job finding margin and thus making the economy more resilient to macroeconomic shocks. In contarst, the effect of JSA and UI on the welfare cost of recessions is in general ambiguous. The paper also provides a quantitative appliation to the German labor market reforms of 2003-2005, the so-called Hartz reforms, which improved JSA (Hartz III reform) and reduced UI (Hartz IV reform). According to the baseline calibration, the two labor market reforms led to a substantial reduction in the output cost of recessions and a moderate reduction in the welfare cost of recessions in Germany.