Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During The Financial Crisis
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Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During The Financial Crisis
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Author : Mr.Ondrej Kamenik
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2009-09-01
Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During The Financial Crisis written by Mr.Ondrej Kamenik and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009-09-01 with Business & Economics categories.
We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, and bank lending tightening affects the United States. To calculate confidence intervals that respect the zero interest rate floor, we employ Latin hypercube sampling. Derived confidence bands suggest non-negligible risks that U.S. interest rates might stay near zero for an extended period, and that severe credit conditions might persist.
Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During The Financial Crisis
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Author :
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2009
Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During The Financial Crisis written by and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2009 with Bank loans categories.
Constitutional Law And The Eu Balanced Budget Principle
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Author : Elena-Simina Tănăsescu
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2021-11-29
Constitutional Law And The Eu Balanced Budget Principle written by Elena-Simina Tănăsescu and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-11-29 with Law categories.
Exploring the balanced budget rule as an economic standard and as a legal principle, this book explains the context and content of the balanced budget rule and presents a critical appraisal of its impact on legal systems, political institutions and social values, and particularly an evaluation of its constitutionalization in the European and national legal systems. Examining a range of perspectives on the balanced budget rule as a legal principle, a series of chapters investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of the balanced budget rule. The book considers the impact this may have on the separation of powers within the state, on democratic decision-making, on the European social model and on the protection of fundamental social rights within the European Union. It suggests that this impact goes beyond the ethical issue of the public debt considered as a burden placed on future generations, and beyond injunctions imposed by international financial institutions on national public finances. The transfiguration of fiscal discipline from an economic requirement into a legal rule demanding a balanced budget embodies a challenge to the political nature of the budgetary process while creating the flexibility needed in order to further fiscal federalism within the European Union. This book argues that the balanced budget rule is nothing more than it has always been: an instrument for devising public policies in a rational manner, a tool for conceiving qualitative choices regarding the well-being of citizens.
Inflation Forecast Targeting
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Author : Kevin Clinton
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-06-24
Inflation Forecast Targeting written by Kevin Clinton and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-06-24 with Business & Economics categories.
Many central banks in emerging and advanced economies have adopted an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) approach to monetary policy, in order to successfully establish a stable, low-inflation environment. To support policy making, each has developed a structured system of forecasting and policy analysis appropriate to its needs. A common component is a model-based forecast with an endogenous policy interest rate path. The approach is characterized, among other things, by transparent communications—some IFT central banks go so far as to publish their policy interest rate projection. Some elements of this regime, although a work still in progress, are worthy of consideration by central banks that have not yet officially adopted full-fledged inflation targeting.
Achieving The Bank Of Japan S Inflation Target
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Author : Mr.Gee Hee Hong
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-11-01
Achieving The Bank Of Japan S Inflation Target written by Mr.Gee Hee Hong and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-11-01 with Business & Economics categories.
The Bank of Japan has introduced various unconventional monetary policy tools since the launch of Abenomics in 2013, to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent inflation. In this paper, a forward-looking open-economy general equilibrium model with endogenously determined policy credibility and an effective lower bound is developed for forecasting and policy analysis (FPAS) for Japan. In the model’s baseline scenario, the likelihood of the Bank of Japan reaching its 2 percent inflation target over the medium term is below 40 percent, assuming the absence of other policy reactions aside from monetary policy. The likelihood of achieving the inflation target is even lower under alternative risk scenarios. A positive shock to central bank credibility increases this likelihood, and would require less accommodative macroeconomic policies.
Financial Crises In Emerging Markets
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Author : Reuven Glick
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2001-04-23
Financial Crises In Emerging Markets written by Reuven Glick and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2001-04-23 with Business & Economics categories.
The essays in this volume analyze causes of financial crises in emerging markets and different policy responses.
World Economic Outlook October 2008
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2008-10-10
World Economic Outlook October 2008 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2008-10-10 with Business & Economics categories.
A unique international exercise in information-gathering and analysis An extraordinary confluence of global forces has kept the world economy strong in the past few years, but there are now numerous challenges to growth. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF's leading economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium terms. It is a respected, one-stop, trusted resource offering remarkable insight, balance, and perspective to decision makers and policymakers worldwide. Published at least twice yearly, the World Economic Outlook presents the outlook for growth, inflation, trade, and other economic developments in a clear, practical format. Each WEO considers the issues affecting advanced and emerging economies. The analytic chapters provide the global intelligence required to deal with global interdependence. These analyses focus on pressing concerns or hotly debated issues, putting prospects for liquidity, inflation, and growth into context. The statistical appendix presents historical data as well as projections and selected series from World Economic Outlook database updated for each report. The October 2008 edition examines commodity prices and inflation, economic cycles in the aftermath of financial crises, the role of fiscal policy during downturns, and current account imbalances in emerging economies. Recent analytic chapters have examined climate change, the housing cycle, commodity prices, capital inflows, globalization and inequality, and the global business cycle.
Wavelet Neural Networks
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Author : Antonios K. Alexandridis
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 2014-05-05
Wavelet Neural Networks written by Antonios K. Alexandridis and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-05-05 with Mathematics categories.
A step-by-step introduction to modeling, training, and forecasting using wavelet networks Wavelet Neural Networks: With Applications in Financial Engineering, Chaos, and Classification presents the statistical model identification framework that is needed to successfully apply wavelet networks as well as extensive comparisons of alternate methods. Providing a concise and rigorous treatment for constructing optimal wavelet networks, the book links mathematical aspects of wavelet network construction to statistical modeling and forecasting applications in areas such as finance, chaos, and classification. The authors ensure that readers obtain a complete understanding of model identification by providing in-depth coverage of both model selection and variable significance testing. Featuring an accessible approach with introductory coverage of the basic principles of wavelet analysis, Wavelet Neural Networks: With Applications in Financial Engineering, Chaos, and Classification also includes: • Methods that can be easily implemented or adapted by researchers, academics, and professionals in identification and modeling for complex nonlinear systems and artificial intelligence • Multiple examples and thoroughly explained procedures with numerous applications ranging from financial modeling and financial engineering, time series prediction and construction of confidence and prediction intervals, and classification and chaotic time series prediction • An extensive introduction to neural networks that begins with regression models and builds to more complex frameworks • Coverage of both the variable selection algorithm and the model selection algorithm for wavelet networks in addition to methods for constructing confidence and prediction intervals Ideal as a textbook for MBA and graduate-level courses in applied neural network modeling, artificial intelligence, advanced data analysis, time series, and forecasting in financial engineering, the book is also useful as a supplement for courses in informatics, identification and modeling for complex nonlinear systems, and computational finance. In addition, the book serves as a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners in the fields of mathematical modeling, engineering, artificial intelligence, decision science, neural networks, and finance and economics.
Advancing The Frontiers Of Monetary Policy
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Author : Tobias Adrian
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-04-13
Advancing The Frontiers Of Monetary Policy written by Tobias Adrian and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-04-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Contributors working at the International Monetary Fund present 14 chapters on the development of monetary policy over the past quarter century through the lens of the evolution of inflation-forecast targeting. They describe the principles and practices of inflation-forecast targeting, including managing expectations, the implementation of a forecasting and policy analysis system, monetary operations, monetary policy and financial stability, financial conditions, and transparency and communications; aspects of inflation-forecast targeting in Canada, the Czech Republic, India, and the US; and monetary policy challenges faced by low-income countries and how inflation-forecast targeting can provide an anchor in countries with different economic structures and circumstances.
An Index For Transparency For Inflation Targeting Central Banks Application To The Czech National Bank
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Author : Rania A. Al-Mashat
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2018-10-01
An Index For Transparency For Inflation Targeting Central Banks Application To The Czech National Bank written by Rania A. Al-Mashat and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-10-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper develops a new central bank transparency index for inflation-targeting central banks (CBT-IT index). It applies the CBT-IT index to the Czech National Bank (CNB), one of the most transparent inflation-targeting central banks. The CNB has invested heavily in developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to implement a full-fledged inflation-forecast-targeting (IFT) regime. The components of CBT-IT index include measures of transparency about monetary policy objectives, the FPAS designed to support IFT, and the monetary policymaking process. For the CNB, all three components have shown substantial improvements over time but a few gaps remain. The CNB is currently working on eliminating some of these gaps.