Corporate Planning Human Behavior And Computer Simulation
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Corporate Planning Human Behavior And Computer Simulation
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Author : Roy L. Nersesian
language : en
Publisher: Praeger
Release Date : 1990-02-15
Corporate Planning Human Behavior And Computer Simulation written by Roy L. Nersesian and has been published by Praeger this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1990-02-15 with Business & Economics categories.
Roy L. Nersesian challenges traditional forecasting methods that rely strictly on econometric models, arguing that they ignore a fundamental aspect of the business cycle--human emotional responses to economic stimuli. Nersesian advocates instead the development of forecasting models that incorporate human behavior into the process, and he provides a tool--computer simulation--which can be used for this purpose. As Nersesian demonstrates, such consumer attitudes as confidence in the future, fear of depression, even passing fads can have a profound effect on business activity and are often far more predictive of the future than are the thousands of mathematical equations used to develop a forecast built upon econometrics. By using simulation to factor potential consumer responses into the forecasting process, Nersesian is able to tie forecasting to the consequences of human behavior and thereby determine the way in which attitudes play a role in affecting the future course of business. Nersesian's study is organized around a series of questions about the business cycle: If economic activity is influenced by the nature of decisions, and if decisions are based partly on human responses to such things as prices and costs, and partly on human emotions, shouldn't the forecasting process itself incorporate human behavior? If human behavior in turn is influenced by factors such as price, cost, and inventory, and the general level of confidence in the future, should these not be incorporated in the forecasting process? In order to address these questions, Nersesian creates a simple island society and demonstrates how to use simulation to assess the effects of elements that might cause a change of consumer sentiment during the forecast period. As Nersesian concludes, a change of consumer sentiment at any time during the forecast period can have significant implications for the accuracy or usefulness of a forecast used in the corporate planning process. Both students of forecasting and corporate planners will find Nersesian's work illuminating reading.
Internal Evaluation
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Author : Arnold J. Love
language : en
Publisher: SAGE
Release Date : 1991-03
Internal Evaluation written by Arnold J. Love and has been published by SAGE this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-03 with Business & Economics categories.
This text provides an introduction to the theory and practice of internal evaluation. It presents the stages of internal evaluation growth, ways of identifying users' needs and selecting appropriate evaluation methods.
Computer Simulation Of Human Behavior
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Author : John M. Dutton
language : en
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Release Date : 1971
Computer Simulation Of Human Behavior written by John M. Dutton and has been published by John Wiley & Sons this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1971 with Business & Economics categories.
Computer Simulation In Financial Risk Management
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Author : Roy Nersesian
language : en
Publisher: Praeger
Release Date : 1991-04-30
Computer Simulation In Financial Risk Management written by Roy Nersesian and has been published by Praeger this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-04-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Computer programs that simulate complex processes in the real world can provide a quantitative tool for determining how much debt can be added safely to a company's capital structure. The increasing number of bankruptcies and defaults in today's international business arena result from debt overload and point to major shortcomings in the conventional financial evaluation process. In this book, Roy L. Nersesian describes why current methods of risk management fail and how computer simulation can be employed to determine the safe level of debt more accurately. Because the decision to add debt to an organization requires favorable, and essentially independent, decisions from both the borrower and lender, it is necessary to quantify both perspectives. Through actual examples readers will learn how to do this and to translate an actual business situation into a simulation model or program. Current evaluation systems, according to Nersesian, fail to incorporate the cyclical nature of business activity. They result all too often in an overly optimistic projection of cash flow. Simulation techniques are better able to incorporate the transience of good times and put quantitative analysis of risk on par with quantitative analysis of reward. Simulation techniques also reduce the role of speculative, and highly subjective, judgment. For example, decisionmakers who are not familiar personally with a particular business area, assign more risk to that area than those who are. A quantified risk management system enables executives to rank projects by the degree of risk much as they currently rank them by degree of profitability. The book presents the concept of simulation in terms that can be understood by generalists in corporations and financial institutions. At the same time, it provides computer programmers with an understanding of risk management principles. It will provide a valuable resource for: financial executives, planners and strategists in corporate and governmental organizations; bank lending officers; and computer programmers working with these organizations.
Computational Analysis Of Firms Organization And Strategic Behaviour
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Author : Edoardo Mollona
language : en
Publisher: Routledge
Release Date : 2010-09-13
Computational Analysis Of Firms Organization And Strategic Behaviour written by Edoardo Mollona and has been published by Routledge this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2010-09-13 with Business & Economics categories.
Management and organization theories have, in the years, developed rich methodological paraphernalia to test hypotheses. This book addresses possible applications of computer simulation to theory building in management and organizational theory.
Agent Based Simulation Of Organizational Behavior
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Author : Davide Secchi
language : en
Publisher: Springer
Release Date : 2015-08-25
Agent Based Simulation Of Organizational Behavior written by Davide Secchi and has been published by Springer this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-08-25 with Business & Economics categories.
The aim of this book is to demonstrate how Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) can be used to enhance the study of social agency, organizational behavior and organizational management. It derives from a workshop, sponsored by the Society for the Study of Artificial Intelligence and the Simulation of Behavior (AISB), held at Bournemouth University Business School in 2014 on “Modelling Organizational Behavior and Social Agency”. The contents of this book are divided into four themes: Perspectives, Modeling Organizational Behavior, Philosophical and Methodological Perspective, and Modeling Organized Crime and Macro-Organizational Phenomena. ABM is a particular and advanced type of computer simulation where the focus of modeling shifts to the agent rather than to the system. This allows for complex and more realistic representations of reality, facilitating an innovative socio-cognitive perspective on organizational studies. The editors and contributing authors claim that the use of ABM may dramatically expand our understanding of human behavior in organizations. This is made possible because of (a) the computational power made available by technological advancements, (b) the relative ease of the programming, (c) the ability to borrow simulation practices from other disciplines, and (d) the ability to demonstrate how the ABM approach clearly enables a socio-cognitive perspective on organizational complexity. Showcasing contributions from academics and researchers of various backgrounds and discipline, this volumes provides a global, interdisciplinary perspective.
Corporate Planning
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Author : M. J. Langham
language : en
Publisher: Elsevier
Release Date : 2014-06-28
Corporate Planning written by M. J. Langham and has been published by Elsevier this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-06-28 with Business & Economics categories.
Aimed at practitioners of corporate planning organisational development and personnel managers generally, together with students of management. The book sets out to draw together two streams of thought and literature, one dealing with human behaviour and the other with corporate planning and analysis. It shows how corporate planning may be made more effective by giving proper attention to the 'human factor' - and also offers a great deal of insight to those concerned with the personnel function which stresses the importance of their skills to 'planning' process. The book demonstrates how a considered blend of analysis and behavioural skills can bring a more effective approach to planning
Computer Simulation In Financial Risk Management
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Author : Roy Nersesian
language : en
Publisher: Praeger
Release Date : 1991-04-30
Computer Simulation In Financial Risk Management written by Roy Nersesian and has been published by Praeger this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1991-04-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Computer programs that simulate complex processes in the real world can provide a quantitative tool for determining how much debt can be added safely to a company's capital structure. The increasing number of bankruptcies and defaults in today's international business arena result from debt overload and point to major shortcomings in the conventional financial evaluation process. In this book, Roy L. Nersesian describes why current methods of risk management fail and how computer simulation can be employed to determine the safe level of debt more accurately. Because the decision to add debt to an organization requires favorable, and essentially independent, decisions from both the borrower and lender, it is necessary to quantify both perspectives. Through actual examples readers will learn how to do this and to translate an actual business situation into a simulation model or program. Current evaluation systems, according to Nersesian, fail to incorporate the cyclical nature of business activity. They result all too often in an overly optimistic projection of cash flow. Simulation techniques are better able to incorporate the transience of good times and put quantitative analysis of risk on par with quantitative analysis of reward. Simulation techniques also reduce the role of speculative, and highly subjective, judgment. For example, decisionmakers who are not familiar personally with a particular business area, assign more risk to that area than those who are. A quantified risk management system enables executives to rank projects by the degree of risk much as they currently rank them by degree of profitability. The book presents the concept of simulation in terms that can be understood by generalists in corporations and financial institutions. At the same time, it provides computer programmers with an understanding of risk management principles. It will provide a valuable resource for: financial executives, planners and strategists in corporate and governmental organizations; bank lending officers; and computer programmers working with these organizations.
Computer Simulation In Operations Management
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Author : Keith Klafehn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1996
Computer Simulation In Operations Management written by Keith Klafehn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1996 with Production management categories.
Modeling Human And Organizational Behavior
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Author : Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations
language : en
Publisher: National Academies Press
Release Date : 1998-08-14
Modeling Human And Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and has been published by National Academies Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1998-08-14 with Business & Economics categories.
Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.