Criteria For Evaluating Forecasts
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Criteria For Evaluating Forecasts
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Author : Thomas W. Milburn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1969
Criteria For Evaluating Forecasts written by Thomas W. Milburn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1969 with Forecasting categories.
Criteria For Evaluating Forecasts
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Author : Thomas W. Milburn
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1969
Criteria For Evaluating Forecasts written by Thomas W. Milburn and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1969 with categories.
Planners find it necessary to make projections of trends or other forecasts of probable events or changes from the present state. Sometimes they must emphasize improbable events relevant to their missions. The growing interest in forecasting suggests a need for principles or criteria for better as contrasted with worse ones. Some criteria are suggested along with an example which appears to be consonant with them. (Author).
Forecasting Principles And Practice
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Author : Rob J Hyndman
language : en
Publisher: OTexts
Release Date : 2018-05-08
Forecasting Principles And Practice written by Rob J Hyndman and has been published by OTexts this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-05-08 with Business & Economics categories.
Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations
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Author : Mr.José M. Barrionuevo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 1992-06-01
A Simple Forecasting Accuracy Criterion Under Rational Expectations written by Mr.José M. Barrionuevo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1992-06-01 with Business & Economics categories.
A simple criterion based on the properties of the forecast error is presented to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts. The efficiency conditions of an optimization problem are used to show that under rational expectations the standard statistical conditions are necessary, but not sufficient to ensure efficiency. This criterion is used to examine the accuracy of the World Economic Outlook projections of growth and inflation for the seven major industrial countries. Time series models are then estimated and the efficiency of the World Economic Outlook projections relative to a benchmark time series model is examined. A number of empirical tests suggest that the year ahead projections of growth and inflation in the World Economic Outlook are unbiased after 1982.
A Technique For Evaluating Forecasting Models
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Author : Evdokia Xekalaki
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016
A Technique For Evaluating Forecasting Models written by Evdokia Xekalaki and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with categories.
This paper presents a new methodology for evaluating the performance of a forecasting model. The evaluation-criterion utilizes a “credibility interval” centered at the model prediction. Given predicted and observed values, the length of the “credibility interval” is increased (or decreased) according as an observed value of the dependent random variable falls out of (or into) the interval. Based on that, various ways of assessing the rating of the model are discussed and illustrative examples are given.
Forecasting Vix The Illusion Of Forecast Evaluation Criteria
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Author : Stavros Degiannakis
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2023
Forecasting Vix The Illusion Of Forecast Evaluation Criteria written by Stavros Degiannakis and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2023 with categories.
Forecast Evaluation Methods
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Author : Frank Undorf
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2018-09-11
Forecast Evaluation Methods written by Frank Undorf and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2018-09-11 with categories.
Seminar paper from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Statistics and Methods, grade: 1,0, University of Cologne (Institut für Ökonometrie und Statistik), course: Seminar "Statistics and Econometrics," language: English, abstract: This seminar paper aims to briefly introduce selected modelfree methods which can be used both to evaluate specific forecast series and to compare pairwise competing series of forecasts. Problems arising from parameter estimation uncertainty and nested forecast generating models are illuminated curtly. The model-free methods will be applied to three series of annual german economic forecasts from 1970 - 2015 provided by the joint forecast and the Council of Economic Advisors. It turns out that the forecast accuracy matches the chronology of the forecasts within the annual forecast semester. Moreover, a simple Monte Carlo study aims to illustrate graphically empirical size and empirical power of the tests for pairwise comparison depending on certain properties of the underlying forecast error sequences.
Evaluating Forecast Accuracy
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Author : Yangyan Shi
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2017-02-03
Evaluating Forecast Accuracy written by Yangyan Shi and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2017-02-03 with categories.
The Handbook Of Forecasting
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Author : Spyros G. Makridakis
language : en
Publisher: Wiley-Interscience
Release Date : 1987-04-03
The Handbook Of Forecasting written by Spyros G. Makridakis and has been published by Wiley-Interscience this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1987-04-03 with Business & Economics categories.
Role and application of forecasting in organizations; Introduction to management forecasting; Sales forecasting requirements; Forecasting requirements for operations planning and control; Capacity planning forecasting requirements; Financial forecasting; Forecasting and strategic planning; Forecasting in the electric utility industry; State and local government revenue forecasting; Population forecasting; Forecasting: the issues; Approaches to forecasting; Smoothing methods for short-term planning and control; A practical overview of arima models for time series forecasting; Decomposition methods for medium term planning annnd budgeting; Econometric methods for managerial applications; Judgemtal and bayesian forecasting; An integrated approach to medium andlong term forecasting: the marketing mix system; Forecasting challenges; Forecasting and the environment: the challenges of rapid change; Price forecasting using experience curves and the product life-cycle concept; Life cycle forecasting; Forecasting recessions; Forecasting macroeconomic variables: an eclectic approach; ; Managing the forecasting functions; Forecasting and planning: an evaluation; Integrating forecasting and decision making; The forecasting audit; The future of forecasting.
The B G System Of Evaluating Forecasts
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Author : Irving I. Gringorten
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 1982
The B G System Of Evaluating Forecasts written by Irving I. Gringorten and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 1982 with Probability forecasts (Meteorology). categories.