Current Account Norms In Natural Resource Rich And Capital Scarce Economies
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Current Account Norms In Natural Resource Rich And Capital Scarce Economies
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Author : Juliana Dutra Araujo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-03-27
Current Account Norms In Natural Resource Rich And Capital Scarce Economies written by Juliana Dutra Araujo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.
The permanent income hypothesis implies that frictionless open economies with exhaustible natural resources should save abroad most of their resource windfalls and, therefore, feature current account surpluses. Resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs), on the other hand, face substantial development needs and tight external borrowing constraints. By relaxing these constraints and providing a key financing source for public investment in RRDCs, temporary resource revenues might then be associated with current account deficits, or at least low surpluses. This paper develops a neoclassical model with private and public investment and several frictions that capture pervasive features in RRDCs, including absorptive capacity constraints, inefficiencies in investment, and borrowing constraints that can be relaxed when natural resources lower the country risk premium. The model is used to study the role of investment and these frictions in shaping the current account dynamics under windfalls. Since consumption and investment decisions are optimal, the model also serves to provide current account benchmarks (norms). We apply the model to the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa and discuss how our results can be used to inform the current account norm analysis pursued at the International Monetary Fund.
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks For Resource Rich Developing Countries
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-08-24
Macroeconomic Policy Frameworks For Resource Rich Developing Countries written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-08-24 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper aims to widen the prism through which Fund policy analysis is conducted for resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs). While all resource-rich economies face resource revenue exhaustibility and volatility, RRDCs face additional challenges, including lack of access to international capital markets and domestic capital scarcity. Resource exhaustibility gives rise to inter-temporal decisions of how much of the resource wealth to consume and how much to save, and revenue volatility calls for appropriate fiscal rules and precautionary savings. Under certain conditions, it would be optimal for a significant share of a RRDC’s savings to be in domestic real assets (e.g., investment in domestic infrastructure), though absorptive capacity constraints need to be tackled to promote efficient spending and short-run policies are needed to preserve macroeconomic stability. The objective of this paper is to develop new macro-fiscal frameworks and policy analysis tools for RRDCs that could enhance Fund policy advice.
Current Account Norms In Natural Resource Rich And Capital Scarce Economies
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FREE 30 Days
Author : Juliana Dutra Araujo
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-03-27
Current Account Norms In Natural Resource Rich And Capital Scarce Economies written by Juliana Dutra Araujo and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-03-27 with Business & Economics categories.
The permanent income hypothesis implies that frictionless open economies with exhaustible natural resources should save abroad most of their resource windfalls and, therefore, feature current account surpluses. Resource-rich developing countries (RRDCs), on the other hand, face substantial development needs and tight external borrowing constraints. By relaxing these constraints and providing a key financing source for public investment in RRDCs, temporary resource revenues might then be associated with current account deficits, or at least low surpluses. This paper develops a neoclassical model with private and public investment and several frictions that capture pervasive features in RRDCs, including absorptive capacity constraints, inefficiencies in investment, and borrowing constraints that can be relaxed when natural resources lower the country risk premium. The model is used to study the role of investment and these frictions in shaping the current account dynamics under windfalls. Since consumption and investment decisions are optimal, the model also serves to provide current account benchmarks (norms). We apply the model to the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa and discuss how our results can be used to inform the current account norm analysis pursued at the International Monetary Fund.
Boom Bust Or Prosperity Managing Sub Saharan Africa S Natural Resource Wealth
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Author : Charlotte J. Lundgren
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-08-27
Boom Bust Or Prosperity Managing Sub Saharan Africa S Natural Resource Wealth written by Charlotte J. Lundgren and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-08-27 with Nature categories.
Sizeable natural resource endowments and potentially large financial inflows from their extraction provide an unparalleled opportunity for economic growth and development in a growing number of sub-Saharan African countries. Empirical evidence suggests, however, that translating this resource wealth into stronger economic performance and a higher standard of living has proven challenging. Much has been written about the resource curse. This publication focuses on solutions to the challenges and outlines the main policy considerations and options in managing natural resource wealth, drawing on experience within and outside sub-Saharan Africa and referring closely to the latest analysis and policy advice in this area by the IMF, the World Bank, and leading academic research. A key feature of each chapter is a recommended reading list for those who wish additional, more in-depth material on these issues to further inform policymakers and other stakeholders on the theoretical and analytical underpinnings of the policy advice.
Investing Volatile Oil Revenues In Capital Scarce Economies
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Author : Christine J. Richmond
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2013-06-12
Investing Volatile Oil Revenues In Capital Scarce Economies written by Christine J. Richmond and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-06-12 with Business & Economics categories.
Natural resource revenues are an increasingly important financing source for public investment in many developing economies. Investing volatile resource revenues, however, may subject an economy to macroeconomic instability. This paper applies to Angola the fiscal framework developed in Berg et al. (forthcoming) that incorporates investment inefficiency and absorptive capacity constraints, often encountered in developing countries. The sustainable investing approach, which combines a stable fiscal regime with external savings, can convert resource wealth to development gains while maintaining economic stability. Stochastic simulations demonstrate how the framework can be used to inform allocations between capital spending and external savings when facing uncertain oil revenues. An overly aggressive investment scaling-up path could result in insufficient fiscal buffers when faced with negative oil price shocks. Consequently, investment progress can be interrupted, driving up the capital depreciation rate, undermining economic stability, and lowering the growth benefits of public investment.
African Economic Outlook 2013 Structural Transformation And Natural Resources
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Author : OECD
language : en
Publisher: OECD Publishing
Release Date : 2013-05-27
African Economic Outlook 2013 Structural Transformation And Natural Resources written by OECD and has been published by OECD Publishing this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2013-05-27 with categories.
The African Economic Outlook is the only annual report that monitors in detail the economic performance of 53 individual countries on the continent, using a strictly comparable analytical framework. The focus of the 2013 edition if structural transformation and natural resources in Africa.
From Natural Resource Boom To Sustainable Economic Growth
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Author : Pranav Gupta
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2015-04-30
From Natural Resource Boom To Sustainable Economic Growth written by Pranav Gupta and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-04-30 with Business & Economics categories.
Some resource-rich developing countries are in the process of harnessing immense mining resources towards inclusive growth and prosperity. Nevertheless, tapping into natural resources could be challenging given the large front-loaded investment, volatile capital flows and exposure to global commodity markets. Public investment is needed to remove the often-large infrastructure gap and unlock the economic potential. However, too rapid fiscal outlays could push the economy to its limit of absorptive capacity and increase macro-financial vulnerabilities. This paper utilizes a structural model-based approach to analyze macroeconomic impacts of different public investment strategies on key fiscal and non-fiscal variables such as debt, consumption, sovereign wealth fund, and real exchange rates. We apply the model to Mongolia and draw policy recommendations from the analysis. We find that fiscal policy adjustment, particularly moderating infrastructure investment and optimizing investment efficiency is needed to maintain macroeconomic and external stability, as well as to boost the long-term sustainable growth for Mongolia.
World Economic Outlook April 2012
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2012-04-17
World Economic Outlook April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2012-04-17 with Business & Economics categories.
The April 2012 issue of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity-exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.
Saudi Arabia
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Author : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2019-09-09
Saudi Arabia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2019-09-09 with Business & Economics categories.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Saudi Arabia discusses that reforms are starting to yield positive results. Oil prices and production have been volatile, and uncertainties in the global oil market continue. Promoting non-oil growth and creating jobs for Saudi nationals remain key challenges. Non-oil growth is expected to strengthen further this year and over the medium term. Risks to the growth outlook are broadly balanced. The fiscal deficit declined in 2018; however, higher government spending has increased medium-term fiscal vulnerabilities to a decline in oil prices. Fiscal consolidation is needed to reduce these vulnerabilities. The fiscal framework should be further strengthened to help reduce the procyclicality of government spending. Reforms to improve the business environment are proceeding but need to be complemented by efforts to increase the cost competitiveness of Saudi labor. Government support to develop sectors of the economy should crowd in the private sector and be timebound and linked to performance.
Debt Sustainability Public Investment And Natural Resources In Developing Countries
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Author : Mr.Giovanni Melina
language : en
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Release Date : 2014-04-01
Debt Sustainability Public Investment And Natural Resources In Developing Countries written by Mr.Giovanni Melina and has been published by International Monetary Fund this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2014-04-01 with Business & Economics categories.
This paper presents the DIGNAR (Debt, Investment, Growth, and Natural Resources) model, which can be used to analyze the debt sustainability and macroeconomic effects of public investment plans in resource-abundant developing countries. DIGNAR is a dynamic, stochastic model of a small open economy. It has two types of households, including poor households with no access to financial markets, and features traded and nontraded sectors as well as a natural resource sector. Public capital enters production technologies, while public investment is subject to inefficiencies and absorptive capacity constraints. The government has access to different types of debt (concessional, domestic and external commercial) and a resource fund, which can be used to finance public investment plans. The resource fund can also serve as a buffer to absorb fiscal balances for given projections of resource revenues and public investment plans. When the fund is drawn down to its minimal value, a combination of external and domestic borrowing can be used to cover the fiscal gap in the short to medium run. Fiscal adjustments through tax rates and government non-capital expenditures—which may be constrained by ceilings and floors, respectively—are then triggered to maintain debt sustainability. The paper illustrates how the model can be particularly useful to assess debt sustainability in countries that borrow against future resource revenues to scale up public investment.